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Divisional Round NFL picks and best bets from a legendary expert: This three-way parlay would pay 6-1 - CBS Sports

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Chaz's Coordinator Candidate Short-List

With Arthur Smith likely gone and a gaping hole in the middle of the defense this year, I've done a lot of digging on guys who I think would make successful coordinators in this team. I've done the leg-work so you don't have to. J-Rob, if you're out there, take notes (jk I'm amateur af).
Offensive Coordinators

~~Mike McDaniel~~~~: SF RCG 17-present, ATL OA 15-16, CLE WR 14, WAS WR 13, WAS OA 11-12~~
- ~~Why He Works~~: Obviously Mike is going to come in and keep playing to the strengths of this team. He's helped Shanahan execute his run-first, play-action, bootleg heavy offense that's made him so consistently successful the last few years. He's been able to turn out productive rushers that you wouldn't think like Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, etc. Still, he has experience across the offense having been a WR coach and OA at several different places. I'd bet on him to have a good idea on how to marry the run and the pass.
- ~~Why He Doesn't~~: If you wanted to use what I consider his strengths against him, he's only been a run-game coordinator. Never an OC or PCG, and under Shanny's thumb in SF. He's bounced around a lot (though at every stop he's been with Kyle Shanahan). He's only 37; he isn't the youngest OC in the league, but he's not a seasoned vet either.

EDIT: He gone

Shane Waldron: LAR PCG 18-present, LAR TE 17, WAS OQC 16, UMass OL 14-15
- Why He Works: Waldron is extremely similar to McDaniel in many ways, just pass-oriented instead of the run. He's spent the last 3 years deputizing McVay in running the show with the Rams pass game, a team that got solid results out of a so-so QB in Jared Goff especially in 18, but this year as well. The Rams have had a very successful, balanced offense with him there. Similar to McDaniel, he has experience learning under a prodigious HC talent and has coached TEs, OL (college), and been a QC. That wealth of experience is so huge in translating to being an OC.
- Why He Doesn't: Similar but opposite reasons to McDaniel. He's worked under a HC that is very hands-on, so we don't know how much he really does. His top level experience has only been in the last 4 seasons, and he's very young (41). Even if he's successful in helping Tannehill be successful, the lack of experience in the run game could be a red flag.
Phil Longo: UNC OC/QB 19-present, Miss OC/QB 17-18, SHSU OC/QB 14-16, Slippery Rock OC/QB/WR 11-13
- Why He Works: Phil Longo is one of the hottest names in college football. As good as Litrell as been at UNT, he's done it at the P5 level against solid ACC competition (5th nationally). He's got experience across the board, particularly at OC, QB, and WR positions. He led North Carolina to having PFFs two highest graded RBs this year, and potentially from nowhere to both be Day 2 picks (Michael Carter, Javontae Williams). And on top of that, has brought a contender out of left field in Sam Howell to be the odds-on favorite for #1 pick in the NFL draft next year at QB. He's blown away the competition at every level and could be ready for the next step.
- Why He Doesn't: He's only a college coach. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. But it's a different game entirely. And though he's sufficiently experienced overall, he doesn't have direct connections with the run game in his coaching history. That's something he could potentially mitigate with the right hire, though.
Seth Littrell: N Texas HC 16-present, UNC AHC/OC/TE 14-15, IU OC/FB/TE 12-13, UArizona OC/RB/TE 09-11
- Why He Works: Littrell may not pass the eye test on first glance, but he's a current college HC with a ton of experience. Similar to the other two, he has worked with a litany of positions but in his case, he's worked with all and ran the show. He runs one of the most explosive and balanced offenses (8th nationally) in college football and has been in coaching for a long time. His offenses are elite but his defenses are horrible, but we don't need him on defense. His poor record as a HC (31-31) likely has him on the hot seat, and I could see him jumping ship for the right opportunity.
- Why He Doesn't: First and foremost, he's a college coach. And on top of that, he's a college coach of a G5 team. He has no NFL experience. As mentioned, he has had a poor record as a HC. He doesn't have many red flags, but the ones he has are pretty substantial and generally a barrier in the NFL.
Doug Pederson: PHI HC 16-20, KC OC 13-15, PHI QB 11-12, PHI OQC 09-10
- Why He Works: There can be no claim that this man isn't experienced. He's a literal SB winning HC who has had a ton of success until the last two years. You can potentially parlay his faults into questionable roster-building tactics by GM Howie Roseman. As both a coach and coordinator, he's seen success with churning sub-par RB and QB talent into wins for the most part. He's had his clear moments of genius, no question. Everybody knows the skinny on this guy.
- Why He Doesn't: I won't belabor the point. Everyone knows. Carson Wentz has clearly regressed. Many claim that he's lost without Reich. His receiver cupboard has been bare, but also looked horrible. He's plenty old enough, but with a successful season likely gets scooped up instantly. Some could say that he's had plenty of his own input on his roster, and they've failed. They got worse each year following the SB. You guys get it.

Defensive Coordinators

Jim Leonhard: Wisc DC 17-present, Wisc DB 16
- Why He Works: Pure. Dominance. Wisconsin has for years been the most lights out defense in CFB. Though the numbers long were attributed to conservative offensive playstyle, they persisted even through the Dairy Raid experiment this year. 1st ranked nationally in CFB. Has gotten incredible performance out of so-so athletes from TJ Watt (he's a higher end athlete), Zack Baun, Chris Orr, etc. Finds guys and puts them in the best position to win every rep. Has experience with DBs and is a former one himself in the NFL despite being originally a walk-on. Tough minded, physical player and comes through in his coaching. Has helped produced elite defenses and top 10 teams despite pretty poor recruiting, historically.
- Why He Doesn't: College. That's really the only reason. He's a little young, he's only been coaching for 5 years. But it's basically just that he doesn't have NFL experience.
Phil Parker: Iowa DC/DB 12-present, Iowa DB 99-11, Toledo DB 88-99
- Why He Works: I mean first, holy experience Batman. He's been at the same place for 22 years and only 2 places for 32. Talk about stability. Still, he's helped coach Kirk Ferentz vastly outkick their coverage and produce phenomenal defenses and NFL players despite relatively poor recruiting for decades. Coached Iowa to the 13th best defense nationally this year. Coach of Amani Hooker and Desmond King as well getting insane production out of lesser talents in Josh Jackson, Greg Mabin, Josey Jewell, AJ Epenesa. I could seriously go on and on. An incredible coach who understands positional football.
- Why He Doesn't: He's played a ton of zone in Iowa and I'm not sure how much he knows or believes in man. You have to do that in the NFL. Has only coached college. Is a little on the older side, but not nearly close to retiring I wouldn't think. Has been on staff for some recent tumultuous stuff with players there, but haven't seen his name specifically mentioned. But yea, mostly college.
Karl Dunbar: PIT DL 18-present, Bama DL 16-17, BUF DL 15, NYJ DL 12-14, MIN DL 06-11
- Why He Works: Karl Dunbar has been wildly successful at one thing more than just about anybody around: dominating at the line of scrimmage. He's had plenty of talent to work with but he's helped the 3rd best defense in football account for 56 sacks this year, highest in the league. He's a seasoned veteran who's been with many successful franchise the last several years.
- Why He Doesn't: As incredible as some of his DLs have been, that's all he knows. He's never stepped outside of that purview in his long career. That's really his only red flag, but it's a big one. He would be a hire where it would be very critical to make the right moves for LB and DB coaches.
Larry Foote: TB OLB 19-present, ARI LB 15-16, ARI Asst LB 14
- Why He Works: A young star in the making who has shot up the ranks in the last few years. Joining forces with the incredible defensive mind in Todd Bowles, he's been instrumental in reviving the TB pass rush from the dead helping coach Shaq Barrett into the NFL's sack leader in '19. TB had the 6th highest rated defense (surprising but true) and were 6th in sacks. A very successful former player, he's likely to command a big presence in the locker room. Joined PIT only a couple years after Vrabel left and they're surely familiar.
- Why He Doesn't: He's young (40) and relatively inexperienced. It's good that he's at least coached the ILBs but he's not branched out much. Relatively unknown as a defensive assistant and would also likely need the right moves around him to be truly successful.
Ryan Nielsen: NO DL 17-present, NCSU DL/RGC 13-16, NIU Co-DC/DL 11-12
- Why He Works: If you haven't noticed, there's a theme on my short lists. Nielsen has coached great defensive lines that have gotten to the QB. 3rd last year in sacks and 8th this year, he's worked with mid-round picks like Trey Hendrickson and great technicians in Cam Jordan to find success (i.e, can work with less "talent"). He has a little bit of experience in coordinating with NCSU and NIU but is largely a DL guy. He's helped NO to the 4th best defense in the league this year.
- Why He Doesn't: More of the same. He's young and prior to NO, his experience was more college oriented. He's branched out more than the two former, but not by a lot. Would also need to bring quality hires at DB coach to get the most out.
Matt Burke: PHI DL/RCG 20, PHI DA 19, MIA DC 17-18, MIA LB 16, CIN LB 14-15, DET LB 09-13, TEN DQC 05-08
- Why He Works: Just 44 years young, he's been around the block. He's coached every level of the front 7 including running the show. Has helped sustain Philadelphia's DL success including 49 sacks this season (3rd in the league). Team defense was average this year but his unit did their job. Has familiarity with the Titans organization and was part of the staff for the incredible roster we built before leaving after the great '08 season. Dartmouth educated, if that means anything.
- Why He Doesn't: After at one point being considered a great up and comer, his star has faded a little. Stint in Miami didn't end up with the 3rd worst defense before he and Gase were both let go. Part of the group that mis-utilized Minkah. Will have questions around whether he's turned a corner and ready for another shake with a non-cokehead coach, or if DL is where he should be. Regardless of whether he's a DC, I see no reason he wouldn't make a phenomenal hire as a DL coach.

Titan up.

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Let’s talk about how to bet a specific sport. You can talk about what techniques you use, your process, and what information you use to make your bets. We can also talk about overall concepts.

For instance I’ve had tons of success betting nfl and some success in mlb. However even though basketball is my favorite sport I don’t ever have success betting it. It is infuriating, especially because I believe my process and bets are good. So are there any successful NBA betters who could explain their process? I am going to try to explain how I go about choosing bets and my process in finding good nfl bets. Maybe we can all help each other. It might be a bit lengthy to explain so bear with me.
For NFL, I believe you can gain a lot of insight by watching the games and that is the number one requisite for making good game picks. I also think you should write down your picks/ideas for next week right after the previous week. That way all that you watched is fresh in your mind and you aren’t swayed by what you hear during the week. I believe there is a lot of value in statistics but that they are more beneficial to player props, team scores, and those types of bets rather than game spreads. I also put a lot of value in the game flow for each team in accordance with the game total. By game flow I mean when a team gets up big they usually start to run the ball a lot more and teams that are down start to pass. Also in a high scoring game with lots of possesions players can accumulate a lot more stats. This is by no means infallible but I have found to be very helpful The best way to explain this process might be in an example analysis for a game.
Prior to last nights game I knew from watching both teams that buffalo has an elite offense and an elite defense that has gotten much better but can be susceptible to the run. I knew the patriot’s defense was bad especially their run defense. I also knew the patriots offense was inept especially when passing. So from an eye test I knew bills were the bet and I used an alternate spread of -6.5 to avoid the key number 7. It didn’t matter but this is something I usually do. I also bet bills ML as one leg of a two leg alternate spread/teaser parlay. I wasn’t sure about the overall total however I did bet under patriots team total and under 2.5 total TDs. I did this because of eye test and game flow I talked about earlier. I suspected bills would be up and patriots would need to pass in the second half to score which they would be unable to do. This was a great scenario to bet because the bills pass defense is their strength and patriots pass offense is their weakness. There can be a lot less variation in strength against weakness.
So keeping in mind that the eye test of pats run defense is bad, they are 27th in opponents rushing yards, and bills should be playing ahead I bet over on singletarys rushing yards and over moss’s rush yards. Figuring at least one would hit covering my money and probably both. I shopped around on 3 books to make sure I got the best lines for each which mattered because singletarys varied and only went over by 1.5 yards which it would have been under on the other. I also bet under cam newton longest pass 30.5 yards and under Cam newton fantasy points because of pats bad pass offense and bills good pass defense. I did this based on the eye test, the fact that buffalos pass defense is ranked 8th and patriots pass offense is near the bottom. Again weakness against strength with game flow helping. I was thinking about over michels rush yards cause bills run defense isn’t good and rush offense is pats strength but due to the game flow I decided not. He did end up hitting but most of his yards came in the first quarter. Now this is a game where I was right about most aspects, however there are days where I am completely wrong about it all and lose every bet but today it worked out. All games aren’t clear like this in terms of strength verse weakness, this was just a great example game.
To summarize, for NFL You want to watch games, eye test can provide a lot of insight. Also check box scores after, see who got what stats then think about why. Know the strengths and weakness of the team you are betting on based on their statistics. I used to use DVOA but now it costs money to see so I use per game stats. Also think about the game flow and how that might work in your favor or against you. I would also suggest being disciplined in games you pick. Find a few games a week you really like a team or some weeks don’t even bet at all. Or find a player prop you like and don’t bet the total. I believe player props and fantasy pt totals are much easier to bet because they get less action making their lines less sharp. I believe nfl lines are usually very accurate so often bet 2 leg teasers. I never bet big parlays. I also find certain trends over time, such as a good defensive team with average offense against a good offensive team with bad defense where the spread is negligible youll want to take the good defensive team. Examples include colts verse Houston first matchup and dolphins verse raiders this past week. This all comes from experience which you need. Whenever you are making a bet, you should also be able to explain to a sports beginner why it is a smart bet. Also don’t bet big after a good day/week, you should bet small or even take a break after having a good day. Confidence isn’t your friend, just as being on tilt or emotional is your worst enemy. I also suggest switching up bets after you are successful, if you pick 5 nfl games right habit will tell you that you can pick more game winners. Chances are you won’t and should find other bets whether its totals or props. This is my view point at least, I get caught up making the same type of bet even though it’s not great because I have had prior success with it. If anyone has any questions about how to bet nfl I can try to answer.
As for my nba struggles. On Sunday warriors played bulls, two teams top 5 in pace. I was going to bet the over cause of this but didn’t trust two bad teams. A bet that looked great was over 6.5 curry assists. He had 10 assits in his first game in 30 mins where his team only scored 99 pts in a blowout. In his second game he had 6 assists in 29 minutes where his team only scored 99 in a blowout. So in a high scoring game that should be close curry should get 35 minutes and contribute at least 7 of his teams average 20+ assists. I did think about going with over curry points but went with his assists. He ended up with 36 pts and 6 assists. I believe I had great value here. Another bet was over harell 16.5 pts in the lakers verse timberwolves game. Anthony davis out so I figured more scoring opportunities for Harrell in a game where lakers should get 115-120+. Again I thought of betting over lakers total but didn’t. He ended up with 12 pts in 20 minutes because lakers blew them out so badly that everyone scored and he didn’t get his usual minutes. I think these bets were both great value but both didn’t happen. It seems like there is so much variance in the nba. In nfl there is one or two reasons why a bet wouldn’t hit. In nba everything can go exactly as you thought and it still doesn’t hit. So is nba just difficult to bet cause anything can happen? Does anyone have any good tips or a good process on how to bet?

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There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

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Arbitrage Strategies Thread

Betting arbitrage strategies and tips

Avoid arbs over 10% profit.

Often arbitrage opportunities over 10% profit are either an apparent mistake by the sportsbook or a match far out in the future. In both cases placing bets on the opportunity may tip sportsbooks off that you may be arbing.

Don’t use unsafe links from betting arbitrage websites.

When coming from a betting arbitrage site, make sure not to click any unsafe links to a sportsbook. If a sportsbook notices you coming from an arbitrage website, it is pretty obvious what you’re trying to do. If you use links from an arbitrage website to a sportsbook, make sure they are safe non-referring links.

Avoid betting on weird markets.

It’s best to stick to the most popular sports. In the U.S., this would be football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. Placing bets on obscure events like Korean ping pong is going to seem strange to the sportsbooks.

Open both sportsbook websites side by side to reduce the time placing bets.

As arbing opportunities don’t always last an extended amount of time, it is important to place your bets as quickly and as accurately as possible. Pulling up two tabs to each sportsbook and quickly double-checking the match and the odds will ensure you don’t make any mistakes that will cost you.

Round your arbitrage bets depending on your bet size.

When stakes are calculated for arbitrage bets, technically to obtain the full profit possible, the bets would be made to the nearest penny. Ordinary bettors are not placing bets down to the penny. Depending on the size of your bankroll, you will want to hedge your bets to the nearest $1, $5, $10, $50, etc.

Start with small stakes.

Until you figure out the process that works best for you, it is best to start with small stakes. This way, while you are figuring out the best way for you to place bets or the strategy you are pursuing, you can do so without making mistakes.

Double-check the odds are the same.

Odds can change very fast. In some cases, faster than your arbitrage software can pick it up. Before placing your arbitrage bets, make sure that the odds from your research or arbitrage service match up with those on the sportsbooks’ websites.

Double-check that you are betting on the correct event.

Think about matches that are within the same division. For example, in the NFL, each team in the same division will play each other twice. Make sure the date, game, and odds match up on the sportsbooks and the arbitrage service. This way you can be sure that you are placing the bets on the correct match and not one featuring the same teams in the future.

Place “mug bets” occasionally.

A “mug bet” is basically a dummy bet to break up arbitrage bets. By placing these mug bets, it may appear that you are simply an average bettor that gets lucky sometimes. When placing these mug bets, only use 1-2% of your bankroll. Please don’t get carried away with mug bets, or they may eat away at your bankroll.

Limit deposits and withdrawals on sportsbook websites.

Arbitrage bettors need to move around their funds often to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as they arise. To minimize the need to withdraw and deposit funds, stick to a lower number of bookmakers.

Place an occasional parlay.

According to a UNLV Center for Gaming Research study from 1992 to 2019, Nevada sportsbooks won $0.30 for every $1 placed on parlays compared to just $0.05 for $1 spent on regular bets.
Many beginner bettors bet with their hearts and not their heads when it comes to placing parlay bets. They hear stories like “Man turns $300 to $85,000 on eight-leg parlay”. If you don’t know what a parlay is, it’s basically multiple bets wrapped into one. If one of the bets loses, then the entire parlay is lost. To win the parlay, all of the individual bets must be won within the parlay. These bets have high payouts for a reason; not many people win. By placing the occasional parlay, you can look more like one of these beginner bettors. Just don’t get carried away!

Keep track of your winnings to compare performance at different sportsbooks.

One of the best ways to stay under the radar with sportsbooks and understand your performance is to keep track of your bets. Create a spreadsheet grouping the bets by sportsbook. If one sportsbook has a much higher win rate or lifetime winnings than the others, it may be time to place some mug bets or parlays to even the score.

Spread your bets around to different sportsbooks.

Following up with the track your performance tip, it is important to spread your bets around. If you have a higher number of arbitrage bets with some sportsbooks than others, try to even this out to keep a low profile.

Check stake limits to ensure you can place your arbitrage bets.

You don’t want to place bets on one sportsbook to find out that you can’t place the other half of the arb on the other sportsbook because the stake limit is too low. Ensure you know your stake limits (max bet) with each sportsbook, so you keep your bets within what’s possible when using an arbing calculator.

Avoid long term arbs.

Long term arbs that are greater than a week are usually not the best choice. The odds for these matches are more so guesses, especially when the match is far in the future. If you keep profiting off of these odds, it seems suspicious. Stick to arbs where the match occurs in less than a week.

Avoid arbitrage betting to the max bet limit.

Seeing that there are nearly risk-free profits when it comes to arbitrage betting, it makes sense to go all-in on every bet, right? Not exactly. When you win big it puts more eyes on you. When you win big over and over again, you will get noticed, and sportsbooks will limit how much you can bet. Go for about 60-75% of the max bet limit at most if you have the funds to do so.

Try and focus on smaller sportsbooks.

The more established and higher-earning the sportsbook, the better their anti-arbitrage systems are likely to be. It’s not a bad idea to try and focus on the smaller sportsbooks when possible. Regarding arbitrage betting in the U.S., there may be a period of time when arbitrage betting goes by relatively unnoticed compared to other international markets. This is due to sports betting being new in the U.S., and these new sportsbooks do not have any complex systems in place to detect betting arbitrage.

Don’t place bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear.

Placing bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear could come off as a little suspicious. The reason being regular bettors are generally not attentive enough to place bets instantly once the odds change.

Stick to 1-3 sports.

Most regular bettors and those that watch sports in general only follow 1-3 sports. If your betting on many more than three sports at a time, it may look suspicious.

Look like a typical bettor.

Overall your strategy should make you look as normal of a bettor as possible. The more you deviate outside of what you think a typical bettor would do, the higher chance of your account being noticed. Act normally, and you can arbitrage successfully while making a profit.
If you are interested, you can learn more here.

What I am really interested in is if you guys know of any other strategies?
Anything in the thread may help others!

submitted by Busch_Jager to arbitragebetting [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL SUPER WILDCARD WEEKEND Analysis and Picks

Week 17 Recap: Meh. Overall it was a decent week, we just missed on the Jets plus some points for a big day on a few plays.
Singles (10-12 +4.02u)
Parlays (0-2 -7u)
Teasers (0-1 -3.86u)
BBDLS (0-7 -9u)

https://preview.redd.it/3q91paz3rba61.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f33be1eb67eb515b339c606d16728951a301378
Super Wildcard Weekend!!!

Saturday Games

Colts at Bills: Quite an interesting matchup to open the day. The Colts only made it to the playoffs this year because the Bills helped them get in. The Colts needed the Bills to beat Miami in week 17, otherwise the Bills would be re-matching Miami, a team that they clearly would have crushed if they rested starters for a loss in week 17 like PIT. How ironic would it be if the Colts bumped the Red HOT Bills out in the first round?! 😅
Welp.... "The Bills are the fourth team over the last 40 seasons to enter the playoffs on an eight-game cover streak. The three teams before them all covered the spread in their first playoff game and won by at least 12 points. Additionally, Indy has failed to cover in each of its last three games, which is the longest active streak by a playoff team. "... it looks as if it might be an uphill battle.
However, lets not hop on the Bills Mafia train too quickly. It appears that around 80% of the tickets and the cash are on the Bills, but the line hasn't moved from its 6.5 open except to DROP down to 6 in some spots. This is very indicative on some sharp money keeping balance on the Indy side. The same is true for the total. 80% of the tickets and 75% of the money is on the over, but the line opened 51.5 and has stayed true, or dropped to 51 in some spots.
Looking deeper, we see one of the Bills weaknesses is their run defense. That plays perfectly into the Colts build as they are a team that likes to play great defense, establish the run, and take a few shots with Rivers. Also, Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with an average of 10.3 first-quarter points per game and the Colts scored at least 20 points in the first half in four of their final five games. If the Colts can build an early lead and rely on the run, this game has potential for an upset. Especially with how sneaky good their defense can be.
As hard as it may be to bet, the value seems to be on the Colts with the points. If you're feeling really spicy and public contrarian, this is one of the three games I think a contrarian play holds some value this weekend.

Rams at Seahawks: The first of the two divisional rematches of the weekend. The LA Rams won their week 17 game with a backup QB in his first start. That places them up against the Seahawks who ended the season with a close divisional win vs. the 49ers.
(Before typing this rest of this match up, I want to put a disclaimer of Bias. I am on the Hawk train this year. My futures plays include them, and Baltimore(I had 4 futures plays paying above my "true odds" but the only two I played were SEA and BAL) Take my write up on this game with a grain of salt as I will be predicting SEA to win every game until they hold the SuperBowl trophy 🤑)
First off we have the Rams. One of the main things they have going for them is their defense. It is by far the best in the league, with the next closest defense being the Steelers. That defense is legit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sack Russ a few times and if they are lucky, get points on defense. The second thing they have going for them is their coach. I think (don't quote me) McVay is 5-3 against SEA since he took over and he just won last week with a QB that had never played a NFL snap and went on to throw a pick on the opening drive and score 0 TDs in the game. Even IF Goff comes back and is 100% healthy, he only threw for 536 yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception while posting a QBR of under 55 in the combined first two matchups this year.
Now Seattle on the other hand. If they can pull it all together, meaning their first half of the season offense with their second half of the season defense....Game over. On the league.
For this game in particular though, I don't think much has to be done. The most I can give back up QB for the Rams is 10-13 points and if Goff is in, I give him a ceiling of 20-23 points (Ceiling is all things going well) So IF Goff his 100 percent healthy, hits his ceiling, AND the Rams defense continues its regular season dominance by helping out with a score and keeping SEA under 24-27, then maybe the Rams can win.
But lets be real, the Rams were my second favorite team to come out of the NFC (Behind SEA) until they played the Jets. From that game on, it has been a feeling of MEH, when considering the Rams chances to advance this year. And to top that feeling off, Russ is a perfect 5-0 in post season Home Games and Carrol is also perfect at home in the post season at 6-0. The last time that Seattle lost in the playoffs at home was against the St. Louis Rams in 2004.
Now I know this isn't the Legion of Boom, and the 12th man won't be there because...COVID... but Russ and company having the edge of no travel, sleep in their own bed... Is all I need. I am ride or die on Seattle, baby!

Tampa Bay at Washington: This is one of the harder games for me to gauge. My algo has this as a Tampa Bay victory the majority of the time (82/18). It sees this game similar to the Rams situation in that their defense is pretty good, can possibly get some points, but the offense may have a hard time finding the end zone. My algo does favor this spot for the WAS defense, more than it does the Rams defense, based solely on the offensive line for TB vs SEA and the mobility of SEA QB vs. Lead Toes Tommy when he is under pressure. But, EVEN IF WAS somehow gets a defensive score and an extra turnover or two, can they really keep up with how Brady has been playing as of late? Alex Smith hasss returned from his gruesome injury like some kind of God, going 5-1 in his 6 starts this year.
ANNNNND
The only home underdogs of over a TD in NFL playoff history:
• 2010 7-9 Seahawks WON OUTRIGHT
"Beast Quake" - Marshawn Lynch's TD literally set off vibrations

• 2011 8-8 Broncos WON OUTRIGHT
"Tebow 3:16" - Tim Tebow throws for 316 yards & OT TD

• 2020 7-9 Washington ???? Five years ago, a 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers team coached by Ron Rivera beat an 11-5 Arizona Cardinals team coached by Bruce Arians in the first round of the playoffs.

So confused on this one, I may just look at Gronk to score a TD (He and Brady need 1 to break the record for QB/Pass catcher post season) and stay away from everything else. But Ill probably end up teasing TB and then around game time taking WAS plus the points and looking for a middle.

Sunday Games

Honestly, It is 2am and I wanna get some sleep. I will touch this up tomorrow, post it and post Sunday games on Sunday morning.

Singles (101-128-1, -26.09u)

Colts 1Q ml (1u to win 1.6u)
Colts 1Q Over 6.5 (1.5u to win 2u)
Colts +7.5 (2.7u to win 2u)
Lockett 60.5 Rec Yards Over (2.5u to win 2u)
Lockett 75+ Rec Yards and TD (0.5u to win 1.38u)
Gronk ATTS and Bucs win (2u to win 4.8u)
Mclaurin 70.5 Rec Yards Over (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Mclaurin 75+ Rec Yards and TD (0.5u to win 1.13u)

Parlays (6-32, +26.96u)

Colts 1Q +3.5, SEA ml, TB ml, Bal ml, Mitch T 15.5 Rush Yards Over, Cle 1Q +3.5 (12.43u to win183.07)
Colts 1Q +1.5, SEA ml, TB ml, Bal ml, Cle 1Q +1.5 (5u to win 69.65u) Basically the same bet, this was a profit boost on DK.

Teasers (4-5, +30.74u)

TB -2, PIT ml (1.3u to win 1u)

BBDLS (0-73, -59.24u)

Colts 16.5 First half points OVER, SEA ml, TB ml, BAL ml, CLE 1Q ml, Mitch T ATTS (4.57u to win 1001u)

Futures plays: (Disclaimer: This is the first season I am making such large Futures plays. These are based upon my algo, but more importantly the fact that the poker side of my life had a great 2020 and I set aside extra Bankroll for just this type of play. My future plays have a very small sample size of being +EV so tail with caution...because I sure am)
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
So, when crunching the different SB scenarios (with a Bias towards SEA having a 75% chance to win this first game and 50% chances to win the next two) It gave me that the SEA/BAL matchup was at 3.4 percent of the time and if we assume SEA wins that 50% of the time we get crudely a 1.7% chance of happening. DK is paying 100-1 for SEA to beat BAL in the superbowl. Since I already have futures on SEA to win the NFC and SB, I took the SEA to beat BAL 100-1 odds thinking that if by some stroke of luck we get the 1.7% universe, I will have already won SEA to win NFC and can consider hedging those winnings on the BAL side if they happen to be catching points.
I know its a universe that is only 1.7% in existence (and that's in my mind too, haha) but based upon those calculations the casinos true odds should be closer to 58.8-1 and they are paying 100 to 1.
So to wrap all that up...
LETS GO ALL BIRDS SUPERBOWL!!!!
SEA to beat BAL in the SuperBowl (90u to win 9000u)

Thanks for reading everyone! Check back tomorrow for my Sunday picks. Good luck to all! 🤩

submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

NFL Week 14 FanDuel Strategy Guide

Man time is flying by and I can’t believe we’re already at the Team Rise or Fall NFL Week 14 FanDuel Strategy Guide. I’m here to pass along a few starting points that I like in cash games and tournaments this weekend. As always, with “cash games” (50/50s, Double-Ups, Head to Head) we’re not necessarily looking to take 1st place. We need to beat 40-50% of the field so we’re looking for players with high floors for touches and targets while trying to be cost-conscious.
When it comes to GPPs, I’m looking for upside and correlation. This means stacking a quarterback with at least one pass-catcher from his team and one from the opposing team. There are plenty of ways to take down a tournament when it comes to stacking but that is my preferred method.
Before I move forward: The NBA season is less than two weeks away so it’s a great time to sign up if you’re not a Team Rise or Fall member. You can check out our Sample NBA Study Hub to get an idea of what we’ll be providing on a daily basis.
All information below is based on the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. Let’s get to my Week 14 FanDuel plays!

📷

Check out ROF Bets for Parlays, Player Props, and Monkey Knife Fight Picks!

CASH GAMES

QUARTERBACK

Taysom Hill (7.7k)
Hill and the New Orleans Saints take on a team in turmoil in the Philadelphia Eagles. I know I usually stream defenses against the Eagles, (That might still be the case so read the whole article) but, I’m going to mix things up this week. Taysom Hill is the highest value quarterback in the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. The Eagles are ranked 18th against the quarterback position and allowed Lamar Jackson’s best performance of the season. Hill could do very well playing a similar style.

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery (6.6k)
Montgomery is in a smash spot against the Houston Texans and their 31st ranked defense against the running back position. He’s the second-highest value in our NFL Study Hub and we’re projecting him for 20 touches rushing and receiving combined. Montgomery is averaging a sexy 24 fantasy points per game over his last two games, and I’ll be feeling great if he scores anywhere close to that.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen (8.5k)
Allen is projected for 12 targets in our NFL Study Hub. He’s averaging a pedestrian 14.8 fantasy points over his last four games, but luckily he pulls the Atlanta Falcons and their... Read the rest for FREE here: https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/11/nfl-week-14-fanduel-strategy-guide/

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Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

Join The Patreon for only $7.00!

Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

https://preview.redd.it/9bap7dylmtz51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=514ac72639039b50cafb61850c8748f57687fac9

Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

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There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 10 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 10 TNF Recap: Whelp! 🙃 The algo was spot on with loving the Colts. However, my adjustments took me off the IND -9.5 Alt line I was going to play and put me on the HT/FT. Unfortunately it took Indy an extra quarter to get their defense rolling and they had a few shitty calls against them in the 1H. However, I did like the Colts to crush so I took a live play when they were down in the first quarter that was able to mitigate our losses. Big week 10 coming up, lets check out the games!
Singles (1-3, -5.05u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (u)
BBDLS (u)

Sunday Games

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: I have skipped over this game all week. And now, Saturday night, I sit down to write and I still am unsure. My algo has PIT at -7.5. But, Big Ben and a few other have had to miss physical practices all week due to Corona protocols. Cincy is off a HUGE win over TEN (our algo was on that) however they just went into the bye. I would have rather taken them coming out of the bye off a loss. IDK, I think for now we say ride the dog or pass. There are many better spots today.

Washington at Detroit: Garbage game of the week! Even though both of these teams have playoff chances... Washington is playing musical chairs with their QB over the last few weeks. This week it looks to be Alex Smith again. He looked relatively good vs the Giants last week. If it weren't for some poor WAS special teams play (that gave up 10 points to NY) That would have been a real game.
Detroit is coming off back to back losses giving up 41 and 34, and who knows what is going on there... Are they going to keep the Coach? Galloday? Stafford?! Also, Detroit may be without two starters on the offensive line this week... Detroit has been atrocious against the run this year. I would look at Washington utilizing their pass catching running backs in Gibson and JDM to control this game and take pressure off Smith having to do too much.
My algo has this game as a Pick-em so we are going to ride with the visitors. Another game worthy of a little sprinkle action 😎

Houston at Cleveland: Here we have an AFC match up that CLE should be picking up if they want to be a playoff team. It is understandable for them to lose to the other playoff teams, but anyone with a losing record is a Must.
They will be facing a Texans team that last week came out of the bye and got their second win of the season... YAY! However, it was against the Jags...Starting a rookie QB...and they almost let the game go to OT after having an 11 point lead in the 4th....
Cleveland themselves is coming out of their bye and it appears to be the best time for them to have had it. They did lose the game going into the bye vs. the Raiders, however 100 mph winds and dropped passes seemed to be the game there. Now, coming out of the bye with 2 weeks of rest, they are returning two key starters on offense. #1 is the obvious Nick Chubb... and #2 is the Guard Wyatt Teller who was injured during the game vs. the Colts. Both look on track to return healthy and take on a Texans defense that is dead-last in the NFL against the run this season, allowing a whopping 159.5 rushing yards per game.
Here is the weather report for Cleveland on Sunday, "Mostly cloudy and windy with rain that should be ending in the afternoon. High 54F. Winds SW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph. "
With the return of Chubb and Teller, the Texans horrible run defense, AND the weather concerns. I would expect Cleveland to get back to their roots and look to run the ball 60-65% of the time and mix in some play action shots.
My algo has this as 30-24 CLE however with the weather concerns and predicted game script I would lean on a much lower scoring game.
Some extra info to consider: Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and they are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games as underdogs.

Jacksonville at Green Bay: Bottom of the barrel Jaguars travel to Green Bay to take on the rested Packers who are off a win 10 days ago vs. the 49ers. This should be a GB game all day. In fact, this is most likely going to be my pick in the $100M Golden Ticket on DK. This does point to a shootout with something like a GB 34-17 repeat performance. However, Just like the Browns game the weather report is dangerous for shootouts. "Cloudy and windy. There will be periods of light rain in the morning. High 41F. Winds W at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph." Rain and snow are manageable, but heavy winds make it a running game script more often than not.
My algo has GB 31-20 so I don't think I feel comfortable laying the 13.5. However, JAX is JAX, so I definitely don't feel comfortable laying with them on the road with a rookie QB in bad weather...
This game is most likely a pass for me except for some Aaron Jones props.

Philadelphia at NY Giants: Battle for the NFC EAST. Wow that sucks, considering these two teams have a combined record 5-11-1. Philly is coming out of a bye and returning a ton of offensive talent. "Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut after not receiving an injury designation, while Miles Sanders will start at running back for the first time since Week 6 (knee). Lane Johnson will start at right tackle after not receiving an injury designation. Jason Peters will start at left tackle. "
The Giants however are starting to come together defensively. Their offense is still meh, but their defense has kept them in their last 5 games (with two wins over WAS and 3 losses by a FG or less each time.
~~For me this come down to the same thing as the next game. Give me a home team, catching points, in a divisional game that is the second meeting.~~
Ehhh, during my morning poop I decided that the majority of bettors should be thinking the same thing here. Maybe I shouldn't overthink, but I'm back on the Eagles side. 💩

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game for Tampa Bay here. Losing last week to the Saints was a huge stumble for them, basically giving up control of winning their division. Carolina put up another hard fight and almost gave the Chiefs an upset, losing by only 2! In fact, since that last game vs. Tampa Bay the Panthers are 5-0 ATS when in the underdog role.
Normally, I would be all over Carolina. My algo actually has this as TB -4... Throw that in with TB having back to back poor showings prior and it seems like a perfect spot to take the home dog and the points.
However, when we look closer at when Brady has struggled this year, it's when the opposing team is generating pressure and creating sacks. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, Carolina does neither of those. The Panther have only 10 sacks and 23 QB hits so far this season. They are more of a drop back 7 or 8 and give up short stuff, but don't give up the long balls. Which is perfect for Brady to get back into his comfort zone.
Still even with Brady having more time in the pocket and TB probably righting the ship in the win column, I don't think there is value in the -6. Carolina is one of those pesky teams that is playing close games and this IS the second meeting for these two.
Extra notes: Brady 19-6 ATS after a loss. 7-1 ATS after a 20 points loss....On the other side, Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS in his career as an underdog including 5 straight covers as a dog this season...

Denver at Las Vegas: Another divisional matchup. This one features the up and down Broncos coming off a loss who are 2-2 since the return of Drew Lock taking on the Raiders who are having an up season starting the first half 5-3. Even though the Raiders are playing at home for the first time in weeks and are allowing fans to this game, my algo is still showing this as only LV -1. It heavily favors the over and likes a lean on the Raiders to win, but the spread is far too high for me to consider Las Vegas.
Could be a spot to look at the Broncos value with some points but Lock has been bad in the first 3 quarters of most of his games, only really getting hot in the 4th when teams are up and drop into prevent D. I could see him starting faster today since he is taking on a Raiders D, however I thought the same thing vs. ATL recently and he stunk it up.
Jerry Judy is my prop look in this one.

Buffalo at Arizona: Two similar high ceiling offenses meet in this one. At the start of the week I was all Buffalo. In fact, I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS with the Colts and others. However, after running the algo and checking the news my pick has shifted FIRMLY to the Cardinals. First of all, my algo spits this out a 25-28 game in AZ favor. However, with todays news of the Bills TE, two corners, and a safety on the covid list and not traveling for game, That pushes a lean to a strong lean.
Then, we look at each teams strengths and weaknesses. Both teams have potent offenses with mobile QBs and deep threat WRs, so basically a wash there. Defensively The Bills rush defense has been horrrrrible giving up 146 ypg over their last 5 games. On the other team, the AZ rush defense is not all the best, ranking overall 22nd in the league. So slight edge to AZ there. However, when we look at Buffalo losing their deep and edge players due to Covid this week I think we can safely say the edge is on the AZ side.
This is another perfect game to try a Same Game Parlay however I would be weary of the total. 56.5 is rather high. I like the over on 51 and below, but over 51 it loses its value.

LA Chargers at Miami: This is a game I am excited to watch. My algo really likes Herbert and Burrow so it will be exciting to watch at least one of them in this game. There isn't much to this one. My algo has it as a Pick-em. Miami has placed two starters in the front seven on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Chargers Starting RB is now Bellange, coming home for a revenge game against a weak front 7... Behind him is the best rookie QB we have seen since Patty cakes...
MIA had a surprisingly big win last week but that high emotion leads me to believe they will start this game a little flat. If LA gets a lead, this game is over.

Seattle at LA Rams: So this one actually hurts to write. I am a big SEA fan this year. I have a future on them to win the NFC and also the SB. However, I am also fond of this LA Rams team this year. I expected them to get over their SB slump (that the 49ers are in right now) and win at least 8/9 games this year.
My algo (as weird as it seems) is spitting out LAR -3.5 in a 27-23.5 style contest. I am still not sure I can place this bet on the Rams. Even tho the algo speaks, the Rams have only really beat the NFC East and the Bears this year. They haven't faced a QB like Russ yet, nor one that has weapons like DK and Lockett.
TBH this seems like the perfect game to middle on. Divisional battle. Possibly take SEA to +8.5 and balance it with some LAR ml or even LAR +3.5.

San Francisco at New Orleans: Beep Boop Beep Boop! Alert alert. This game is so confusing! I feel like NO could win easy 34-17, or SF could upset win some 27-24 grind out with some trick plays and jets sweeps.
Obviously because of those many possible scenarios, the value is found in SF +10. Seems to be the perfect spot for it too. SF lost a blowout on primetime last Thursday and the Saints won a blowout in primetime last Sunday. Public money should be alll over the Saints. If taking a big dog is too much of a sweat for you there are some decent props to look at in this game. SF is getting back a TON of offensive weapons and I expect them to look for a lot of short completions that allow the receivers a safer way to get yards.
As crazy as this sounds, my algo actually has SF as -1.5 for this matchup... Im guessing it is assuming Jimmy G and Kittle are in, along with Sanders and Thomas being out but still and 11 point difference is the biggest I have seen all year.

Baltimore at New England: Last game on the slate and it has the scariest feeling. I LOVE Baltimore this year. Outside of the Chiefs, they are my other AFC contender to go against the Seahawks in the Superbowl. The looked good last week bouncing back from their two losses to smack around the Colts team.
On the flip side, NE needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat... THE JETS.... who by the way, put up 30 on them...
Should be a slam dunk Baltimore go go go...
But what's scary to me is 94/93 % of the tickets AND the cash are on the Ravens. And allll week the line has barely moved. Even the Saints vs. the 49ers moved from 7.5-10 throughout the week.
So while I will need a Baltimore win to wrap up all my parlays and teasers on the day, some thing is very scary about those percentages. Vegas RARELY pays out 90 percent of bettors....

Singles (60-81, -35.26u)

WAS +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
WAS ml (0.5u to win 0.88u)
Chubb Anytime TD (2.4u to win 2u)
Chubb 71.5 Rush Yards Over (2.2u to win 2u)
Chubb 15.5 Attempts Over (1.15u to win 1u)
Mercedes Lewis Anytime TD (1u to win 6u)
Jerry Judy 58.5 Rec Yards (2.5u to win 2u)
AZ -2.5 (2.4u to win 2u)
Kyler Murray Over 51.5 Rush Yards (3.1u to win 2u)
AZ Team Total 29.5 Over (1.1u to win 1u)
Hopkins to score TD and AZ to win (2u to win 6u)
Ballange Anytime TD (3u to win 12u) This was going to be a 1u play but every website had this prop at somehwere around -112 to -200. But for some reason, Draftkings has it at +400
Ballange 2 TDs (1u to win 40u) I mean the price was sooooo good, how could we not in a revenge game where he is the primary back. 🤑

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

GB ml, PHL ml, CLE ml, AZ +3.5, LAC +7.5 (FB to win (170.73u) How about William Hill! Offering a 50u FreeBet just for creating an account and depositing. Lets get it! 🤩

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

PHL +3, WAS +10, CLE +3, LAC +8.5, SEA +9.5 (FB to win 22.5u)

BBDLS (0-44, -35.69u)

Indy ml, CLE ml, LV ml, MIA ml, TB ml, NO ml, BAL ml, SEA +2, BUF ml, GB HT/FT ml (2u to win 207.9u) This was put in at the beginning of the week. I would cash it out if I could, but it's not available for cashout so we just have to ride it.
I have another 5 BBDLS for 4.2 U in. Lets go Bellange, score two TDs! 😎

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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football (And Week 8 Recap)

Week 8 Recap: A verrrry interesting week. We crushed the 1pm games again only really missing on Baltimore. If Baltimore had hit, not only would our singles have crushed (17u swing on that one wager), we would had our first BBDLS on the year!!! Alas, we will have to be a little more patient for that one 😁 We hit a nice parlay on one of our free bets and look to keep that momentum pressing our freebets with underdog parlays.
Singles (8-12, -8.42u) Unfortunately Baltimore for 11u cost us big here. Fortunately that loss has been mitigated and is returned to us as free bets on the site.
Parlays (1-2, +41.26u) Rather nice little hit. First big boost to our season ROI.
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (0-5, -2.7u) Soooo Close! Baltimore 🥶

https://preview.redd.it/fvn413vneix51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62c86876e43dd06b4991b4af7149e58d7ace4b4c
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTALL

Green Bay at San Francisco: We have a very interesting match up tonight. COVID seems to be showing up, but the NFL doesn't seem to care for these two teams as the show must go on!
Green bay is coming off a questionable home loss to the Vikings (That our algo was ALL OVER) and traveling West to take on the SF team that ended their season last year (On a positive note, probably also the trigger to allow us the opportunity to see the AR we are currently seeing in 2020)
San Francisco is home after a tough divisional matchup last week in which they lost Jimmy G AND Georgy K. To be honest, I think Kittle is more of a blow than JG. Mullens came in and actually did pretty well, SF was down 30-7 when he entered the game, but Mullens led them on three scoring drives, throwing for 238 yds 2TDs and 0 INTs.
One of they key factors for this one should be the health of Aaron Jones. If he is a healthy go it should make controlling the TOP much easier while also serving to weaken the already fading SF defense. As I am writing this he looks to be a go. Whether or not he is used as a Play action decoy or a primary cog in the offense, remains to be seen.
My algo (thinking all players are a go) actually spits this game out as a pick em. I can understand a few points of movement given the absence of the starting QB, TE, half the RBs, WRs and a few defensive players but I still don't know if there is value on either side of the spread. This game looks to be a mostly avoid. I did however put in a teaser with some free bets taking GB down to a Pickem and Denver (Probably the team my algo likes best at the start of week 9) up into a double digit to cover. (A game I think they have a decent shot of winning outright)
GB is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six Thursday games AND have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss.
These are fantastic trends that build my confidence in an already dangerous GB team. However, I am not willing to lay the 7 as I think SF actually has a 15/20% chance to win this game outright and even if GB has a big lead, their secondary is just suspect enough to leave back doors open to big spreads. If GB comes out as the first team to score a TD, there is a chance (based upon how Mullens looks) That I look to live hedge/middle my wager. Grabbing SF +14 or more seems like a fantastic spot.

Singles (52-65, -19.01u)

Parlays (6-20, +43.76u)

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

GB pk, DEN +10.5 (FB to win 11.03u)

BBDLS (0-41, -33.99u)

Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D

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Expert Sports Betting Information + Top Rated Stock Picks - Sports Picks & Market Predictions from The Roaring MAC and RedAlertWagers.com Sports Betting Service

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Just straight up gambling advice from the Nations #1 Mover & Shaker - The Vegas Paymaster - Roland "The Roar'n MAC" McGuillaman!Become a Patron for only $7.00 a month and get all special releases from The MAC - Join Now!

There's a reason THE MAC has been dubbed THE PAYMASTER by bookmakers this college basketball season, picking games against the spread & sending a signal through the noise! MAC gets it done the way it's supposed to be done, our Premium Red Alert Patreon Action Hitting 58% and climbing - - RED ALERT PLAYS! (Currently winning at 59% for Patreon Members)- MAJOR MOVE ALERTS! (Winning consistently at 57% since 2011)- EXCLUSIVE MAC ATTACK PICKS- Late Info Picks (winning at 58% since 2015)- Back Room Info Picks (Winning at over 60% since 2015)- Hush Money Picks (Winning over 55% since 2017)- Early Info Release Plays (Hitting 59% since 2013)- Stock Portfolio Growth over 8x since March- Volcano Alerts, Chart Analysis & Market Watch Lists with Full Company Reports- 1 Month of all access $7.00 - Join The PatreonAll odds played will be available through our affiliated sportsbooks.

They have unsuccessfully tried to shut down The MAC's action in the past, well known sportsbooks have tried to deny his pay outs, they have attempted to mute his top rated sports betting info in media outlets like ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc, and McGuillaman is wise to many other contentious displays of jealousy! The MAC has no mercy for short sighted retrograde middle men and these new age social media oddsmaker yuppies!

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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 6 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks (And Week 5 Recap)

Week 5 Recap: Look at us, putting in another solid card, right on que. As I have said in previous years, weeks 1-4 are usually a little high variance, but weeks 5-14 are where the data collection yields it's fruits. Thursday was fantastic, we picked the underdog upset and went 4-0 on the night. Sunday was also a positive day. We were VERY close to some big boy daddy long shots. I feel confident that they will show a return eventually, they are just a long term play. Our teaser was 1 off, that tends to happen with teasers over 3/4 picks so nbd. Overall a good building week. Let's keep this train rolling!
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)

SUNDAY GAMES

Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.

Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM

Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.

Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.

Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.

Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.

LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.

NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.

Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.

***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*

Singles (29-30, -2.56u)

CHI +3 (2.4U to win 2u) \*\**
Mike Davis 5.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1.22u)
Mike Davis Anytime TD (1.6u to win 1u)
Mike Davis 58 Rec Yards (1u to win 1.95u)
CHI/CAR Total Field Goals Made 3.5 Over (4u to win 5u)
DET Team Total 27.5 Over (2.3u to win 2u)
HOU +4 (2.13u to win 2u)
HOU ml (1u to win 1.75u)
WAS +3 (2.4u to win 2u) **\*
WAS ml (1.5u to win 1.88u) **\*
WAS HT ml/FT ml (1u to win 2.2u)
CLE +4 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
CLE ml (1u to win 1.6u) **\*
Kareem Hunt anytime TD (2.75u to win 2u)
B. Roethlisberger & C. Wentz 1 or more Passing TDs Each (1u to win 1u)
CIN + 7.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
TB ml (1u to win 1.15u) **\*
NYJ ml (1u to win 3.2u) **\*
NYJ +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
DAL ml (1u to win 1.2u) **\*
I have many more plays that are going out to my subscribers. Most of them are the props I found +EV. The targeted games are DET/JAX, ATL/MIN, CLE/PIT, AND AZ/DAL.

Parlays (2-11, -14.09u)

CLE HT ml/FT ml, BAL ml, IND ml (2u to win 11.22u) **\*
WAS 1h +1.5, BAL ml, DET ml, IND ml (2.5u to win 9.9u)
DET ml, WAS ml, TBml (0u to win 57.57u) SugarHouse had a deposit promo this weekend. This is the FreeBet from that promo.
HOU +7.5, CIN +8.5, CLE/PIT 44.5 OVER, NYJ +10.5 (5u to win 42.16u) 50% Odds Boost on this one
BAL ml, DET ml (3.2u to win 3u)

Teasers (1-4, +23.85u)

WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5 (4.5u to win 10u)
WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5, NE -1, TB +8, DET +3.5, NE -1 (3u to win 21u)

BBDLS (0-27, -22.57u)

We have another 7 of these rocking for a total of 6.42u wagered.

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nfl best bets picks and parlays video

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NFL Week 10 - Rapid Fire NFL Betting Picks & Predictions Picks & Parlays

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