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NFL Draft Props, NBA & NHL Playoffs & Best Bets from Vegas (2019 NFL Draft Previw, Picks and Props)

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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 12-1 The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2. Packers +2 10-3 There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3. Bills +2 10-3 For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4. Saints -1 10-3 This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5. Steelers -3 11-2 The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6. Rams -- 9-4 Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7. Colts +1 9-4 Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8. Titans +1 9-4 Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9. Seahawks +1 9-4 Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10. Ravens +2 8-5 This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11. Browns -4 9-4 Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12. Buccaneers -1 8-5 The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13. Dolphins -- 8-5 There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14. Cardinals +1 7-6 A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15. Raiders -1 7-6 The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16. Washington FT +3 6-7 Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17. Vikings -- 6-7 Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18. Bears +5 6-7 The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19. Patriots -3 6-7 Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20. 49ers -2 5-8 The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21. Broncos +5 5-8 Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22. Giants -2 5-8 It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23. Falcons -1 4-9 Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24. Panthers -3 4-9 I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25. Eagles +3 4-8-1 Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26. Lions -1 5-8 Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27. Chargers -- 4-9 First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28. Texans -4 4-9 The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29. Cowboys -- 4-9 The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30. Bengals -- 2-10-1 Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31. Jaguars -- 1-12 This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32. Jets -- 0-13 The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
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Rookie Report: Week 14 Starts & Sits

Original article from drinkfive.com
 
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s finally time for the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you’ve survived this far and have a meaningful matchup this week, or even better a bye into week 15. The end of the fantasy regular season brought some big-time performances from the rookie crop. Henry Ruggs helped the Raiders avoid being the first team to fall to the Jets this season. Jonathan Taylor had a long touchdown catch where he was untouched, and then racked up 73 fourth quarter rushing yards to help the Colts salt the game away. We also saw Brandon Aiyuk put up a huge game on Monday night, and JK Dobbins follow suit on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts took over as the new QB in Philly, and Justin Jefferson found the end zone for the third straight week. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses for the rookie class though. Justin Herbert had the worst game of his young career in a shutout loss to New England. Standout running back Antonio Gibson left early on Monday with turf toe and will be out in week 14, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active on Sunday night, but was just the emergency back and didn’t play a single snap. It was a true nightmare scenario for people who played either of those backs. Which rookies will help you and which will hurt you in week 14? Let’s take a look and find out…
 
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)
 
Rookies to Start:
 
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): Herbert had a disastrous game last week against the Patriots. It was the first time all year he was held without a touchdown, the first time all year he was held below a 58% completion percentage (he completed 49%), and just the 2nd time he’s thrown multiple interceptions in a game. If you made the playoffs with Herbert as your QB in spite of that performance, you shouldn’t be afraid to fire him back up this week. Throw away the tape from last week and trust that he will bounce back against the defense that allows the most QB fantasy points per game. Even including last week’s game, Herbert is averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game and is the QB8 for the season. There should be plenty of volume for both offenses in this game, as both teams rank in the top-5 in the league in pace (fewest seconds per play run). I’d go into Sunday with confidence that Herbert will deliver 20+ points this week or at least close to it.
 
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Robinson has proven that he is start-worthy every single week. He’s the RB4 on the year, has 70+ scrimmage yards in all but 1 game this season, and 10+ fantasy points in all but 2 games. He gets to face the defense allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, a defense he roughed up for 19.5 points in week 2. You’ve likely gotten to this point because of James Robinson. You’ve got to continue to trust him in the playoffs if you have him.
 
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 14: @LV): If you trusted Jonathan Taylor last week you were handsomely rewarded with a 21-point performance, but his usage early in the game was still concerning. Taylor finished the game the highest snap share of the Colts’ backs (48%), but entering the 4th quarter he had just 3 rushing attempts and 2 receptions. He was lucky enough that the Texans forgot to defend him on one of the receptions and he strolled 39 yards for a touchdown, but he didn’t see the ball much aside from that catch until the last quarter. He was dominant in the 4th, piling up 70 rushing yards on 10 carries, but without that we would be wondering if he was back in the doghouse. I’m confident that there is no way the Colts’ coaching staff could watch that 4th quarter and then go right back to the same usage pattern against another bad run defense this week. Taylor should be involved early and often in Vegas. The Raiders rank 31st in the league in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 4th-most RB points per game. Despite the questionable usage, Taylor has seen 35 rushing attempts and 7 receptions in his last 2 games. His floor makes him a flex play this week, but I think this is more likely to be a ceiling week. He has high RB1 upside this week. He could be a steal at his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.
 
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Swift sounds likely to play this week, and if he does he should probably be in your lineup. There is a risk that he won’t play the kind of snap share he was seeing before his concussion, but the Packers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game and a large chunk of that comes from receiving production. Green Bay has allowed the 2nd-most RB receiving yards per game and the 8th-most RB receptions. Swift is by far the best receiving back on the Lions’ roster. Game script should be negative for Detroit, so they’re likely to be throwing. The only teams to not get a running back to 12+ fantasy points against the Packers were the Lions in week 3 (Swift only played 6 snaps) and the Eagles’ broken offense last week. Check to make sure he’s active Sunday, but if he plays, Swift will likely finish as at least an RB2.
 
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 14: @TB): In recent weeks it appears Jefferson has taken the next step and has gone from a volatile WR2 with some huge blowup games to a consistent weekly WR1. He’s now strung together 4 consecutive 15+ point games (only 2 games with 15+ in his first 8 games) and saw his two highest target totals of the season in the last two weeks. Tampa Bay has been a tough matchup against WRs for much of the season, but there have been some cracks in recent weeks. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both reached 130 yards against them in week 11, and Tyreek Hill caught for 200 against them in a single quarter in week 12. The Bucs have had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they’re likely to be without their #2 CB Jamel Dean in this game. Top corner Carlton Davis will probably be shadowing Adam Thielen, and if that’s the case Jefferson will most often match up with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 119 passer rating on 69 throws into his coverage. Don’t be afraid to fire up Jefferson as your WR1 again this week.
 
Borderline Rookies:
 
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): It’s tough to know what to expect this week from Tua given that this isn’t an easy matchup for a QB and the offense will be a bit shorthanded, but those same factors could also lead to a pass-happy game plan for the ‘Phins. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, and the Dolphins are missing their top 3 running backs. The guys they do have available (DeAndre Washington & Patrick Laird) are both better suited to a 3rd down pass catching role, so they may have some trouble establishing the run game. The Chiefs have allowed the 12-fewest QB points per game, but they’ve been shakier in recent weeks. KC has allowed 2 or more TD passes in 4 straight games, and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in 3 of them. Tua set a new career-high with 39 pass attempts last week, and he could make a run at that number again. I’d view him as a lower-end QB2 with upside.
 
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 14: @Mia.): Edwards-Helaire let down a lot of fantasy players last week when he was active on Sunday night but didn’t play a single snap. That’s not likely to happen again this week. CEH should be good to go for week 14, and this is a reasonable spot for a nice game for the rookie. The Dolphins are easier to run on than throw, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and 6th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs are a team that can shred even the best pass defenses, but this is still a week where they would be smart to keep Clyde in the game plan. Le’Veon Bell didn’t look very explosive last week, and the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to run for 65 yards or more in 4 of their last 5 games. In the only game they lost in that stretch, Denver had two different backs each reach 80 rushing yards. The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite in this one. CEH should have a good chance to return RB2 value this week even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
 
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Dobbins has been productive in recent weeks, with 70+ rushing yards and a TD the week before and the week after his stint on the COVID list, but he’s done that against bad run defenses (Tennessee and Dallas). He’s still sharing more of the running back load than I’d like and turning limited opportunities into production. He played less than 40% of the snaps against the Cowboys and touched the ball just 11 times. It’ll likely take more work than that to post a similarly productive day against the Browns. Cleveland allows the 9th-fewest running back points per game. Dobbins did get in the end zone twice against these Browns in week 1 and he’s certainly the most explosive back in this backfield, but if you start him you’re hoping he continues to be productive on limited touches, and doing so in a tougher matchup. I’d view him as a flex play this week.
 
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Was.): Aiyuk gets a tough matchup this week against a Washington team allowing the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, and a tough individual matchup with Kendall Fuller, but he’s been productive in tough matchups before. The Football Team has given up long TD passes to Amari Cooper and James Washington in each of their last two games, and Aiyuk is pretty much the only downfield receiving threat the 49ers have. In the last 4 games he’s been active for, Aiyuk has averaged 10 targets and 94 yards per game and found the end zone in 3 of them. Even in this tougher matchup, he’s likely to be a solid WR3.
 
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Higgins draws the best matchup he’s had since before the team’s bye in week 9. The ceiling has been capped with Brandon Allen at QB, but he’s still seen 13 targets in the last two weeks with Allen starting and Dallas allows the 4th-most WR points per game. In their last 6 games, Dallas has allowed 11 wide receivers to reach double-digit fantasy points. Higgins should be a pretty safe bet for 10+ points, and this week will probably be about as good a chance as you’ll have to get him in the lineup the rest of the way.
 
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Claypool was surprisingly limited to just 31 snaps and 4 targets last week, losing playing time to James Washington. It was his first game with fewer than 8 targets since week 7, and there is no guarantee that number bounces back this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets the best individual matchup of the week against Taron Johnson, and Diontae Johnson has the safest target share (at least 10 targets in every full game he’s played this year). 60+ yards and a TD is always possible for Claypool, but this week he’s more of a borderline WR3 than a guy I would fire up with confidence.
 
WR Michael Pittman, Jr. (Wk. 14: @LV): Last week’s blowup game by TY Hilton shows that I may have been a little early to anoint Pittman as the WR1 in Indy, but he gets another decent matchup this week with the Raiders. Vegas allows the 13th-most WR points per game, but that number would probably be higher if they weren’t also bad at stopping the run. Even if he truly hasn’t overtaken Hilton yet, Pittman has still been utilized a lot in recent weeks and has a solid connection with Philip Rivers. In his last 5 games, Pittman has averaged 6.4 targets, 4.2 catches, and just under 60 yards per game. He had an inefficient performance in week 12 with just 2 catches on 9 targets, but if you throw that game away he and Rivers have connected on 15 of the last 16 throws in his direction. If the targets are there again this week, the points will be too. He’s an upside flex play.
 
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 14: @Cin.): Lamb managed to make it 5 straight weeks with at least 4 receptions last Sunday, but he still hasn’t caught for more than 71 yards in a game not started by Dak Prescott. Amari Cooper draws the toughest individual matchup among the Cowboy receivers against Cincy’s #1 corner William Jackson, so there could be a couple extra throws that come Lamb’s way. CeeDee should mostly face off with Mackensie Alexander in the slot. Alexander has allowed nearly a 70% completion percentage into his coverage, but just 6.3 yards per target and zero touchdowns on 45 throws in his direction. Lamb remains a floor play flex option once again.
 
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): Kmet finally saw the targets to match his snap share last week. He’s out-snapped Jimmy Graham for 3 straight games but had nothing to show for it until last Sunday. Facing off with a defense that allows the 8th-fewest tight end points per game, Kmet managed to put up 5-37-1 on 7 targets. Houston isn’t as tough on the position, allowing the 16th-most points. Kmet is far from a safe option, but he’s in play as a borderline TE1 this week at what has been a barren fantasy position once you get past the top few options.
 
Rookies to Sit:
 
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): The Eagles have made the bold decision to turn to Hurts at QB this week and send Carson Wentz to the bench. This move might’ve been made sooner if the Eagles didn’t have so much invested in Wentz. Wentz has struggled badly, but Hurts gets a tough matchup for his first career start. The Saints rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game for the year. There will be a learning curve for Hurts as a passer at the NFL level, and the Eagles offensive line play should be even shakier going forward with Jason Peters out for the rest of the year. Hurts does have a ton of upside as a runner that could make him an interesting QB2 option in one of these final weeks, but I don’t think this is the week to count on that. I’ve seen prop bets for Hurts’ rushing yards this week set at 33.5, and I would be hammering the over on that number. He ran for at least that many yards in every single game at Oklahoma last year, and for 60+ yards in 10 of his 14 games.
 
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Moss had been functioning as the 1-A back of the Bills backfield committee in recent weeks, but a costly fumble deep in their own territory last Monday (that was somehow charged to Josh Allen) changed that quickly. Devin Singletary played most of the snaps after the fumble. Moss will probably play more this week than he did last week, but the way he was completely benched last week leads me to believe he’ll have some work to do to build back the trust from the coaches to go back to his normal role. I’d expect Moss to be more of the 1-B to Singletary for the immediate future, and this week the Bills face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 3rd in run defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. That’s not a great situation for his fantasy prospects this week.
 
RB/WRs Lynn Bowden, Jr. & Malcolm Perry, MIA (Wk. 14: vs. KC): News broke this weekend that Myles Gaskin was placed on the Dolphins’ COVID list, and backups Salvon Ahmed & Matt Brieda have both already been ruled out as well. That leaves just DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird as healthy backs on the team, and both are better suited to a 3rd down receiving role. Washington is expected to be the starter, but there has been speculation that Lynn Bowden could help fill some of the void since he played some running back in college. I’m not convinced. Bowden has played the vast majority of his snaps as a pro at wide receiver. His running back eligibility could give him some upside if I was confident that he was going to play most of the snaps at slot WR, but Malcolm Perry’s return from injury throws some doubt on that. Perry is a similarly versatile player who played 78% of the offensive snaps in the last game he was healthy for. Bowden was more productive last week than Perry was before getting hurt, but Perry was playing ahead of Bowden prior to the injury. I’d expect him to take at least some of the slot WR work from Bowden if he’s active. That’s enough to make want to avoid both in a matchup against a defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
 
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): As expected, Kelley was banished to the bench with both Austin Ekeler and Kalen Ballage active last week. Kelley played just 3 snaps in garbage time of a blowout loss to New England last Sunday. It’s unlikely he sees that playing time increase much without an injury in front of him.
 
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 14: @Buf.): In the last two weeks with James Conner sidelined on the COVID list, McFarland played a total of just 25 snaps and posted 41 scrimmage yards. Conner returns this week, so there’s no reason McFarland should be in your lineups.
 
RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 14: @Jax.): Evans returns from IR this week, so he is a name to remember, but he’ll be competing with Jeremy McNichols for backup work and this is Derrick Henry’s show. The only way he’ll play more than a handful of snaps in this one is if there happens to be garbage time. The Titans are favored by 7.5 and the Jaguars have just one win, so it’s possible that happens, but the Jaguars have lost by more than 4 points just once in their past 5 games. Only one of those last 5 opponents has a record below .500.
 
WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 14: @Car.): Jeudy and Hamler have flashed fantasy upside at times this year, but the Broncos’ passing game is tough to count on week-to-week. Jeudy in particular hasn’t quite been on the same page with Drew Lock this season, as only 54% of Jeudy’s targets this season have been catchable according to Pro Football Focus. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game, and the guys who have done the most damage against them have been WR1s. Tim Patrick has led the Broncos WRs in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks and has functioned as the WR1 of this offense when healthy. The full list of wide receivers who have put up 15+ points against the Panthers this season is Mike Evans (twice), Keenan Allen, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley (with Julio out), and Julio Jones (in the other meeting). None of these Denver receivers are in that ballpark right now. I’d look for a better option this week.
 
WR Collin Johnson, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): Johnson has taken advantage of injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to emerge in the last couple weeks, posting a line of 8-162-1 in the last 2 games on 14 targets due to missed time by DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault. Mike Glennon has always liked tall receivers, so Johnson has been a popular name in fantasy circles after his recent performances, but I think he goes back to a limited role this week with Shenault on track to return. Viska exited the game last week just before halftime with a thumb injury. This is a plus matchup for wide receivers with the Titans allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, but I’d be surprised if Johnson sees more than just a few targets. Chark and Shenault are the Jacksonville receivers I’d view as most likely to take advantage of the matchup.
 
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NO): As the Eagles get healthier at the skill positions, Reagor continues to inexplicably lose target share and snaps to guys who probably shouldn’t be featured ahead of him. Alshon Jeffery played his highest snap share of the season last week, and Zach Ertz’s return is bound to siphon off targets from other weapons as well. In his first game back, he played a higher snap share as the TE2 behind Goedert than Richard Rodgers did in any game this year. Those snaps are going to come from the receivers. Travis Fulgham has taken a bigger hit than Reagor, but it hasn’t been good for the rookie either. He was targeted just once last week in a game where Philly threw the ball 27 times. The addition of Jalen Hurts at QB makes this offense even more unpredictable. Reagor is probably going to be tough to trust in you lineups just about every week the rest of the way.
 
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Ruggs made one of the plays of the week last Sunday when the Jets inexplicably blitzed on the last play of the game and left the speedster one-on-one with undrafted rookie corner Lamar Jackson, and he made them pay with a game-winning TD catch. While it was a feel-good moment for Ruggs, it isn’t a reason for you to start putting him into your fantasy lineups. Last week was just the second time all season that Ruggs topped 8 fantasy points, and he needed that miracle TD to do it. He had less than 5 fantasy points before the final play. This week he faces a Colts defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance.
 
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 14: vs. GB): Like Henry Ruggs, Cephus caught a long TD in a comeback win last Sunday, but as with Ruggs it’s not a reason to trust him going forward. Cephus now has 14 targets in 2 games against the Bears, and 11 total targets in the other 6 games he’s played. Marvin Hall was cut recently after Mohamed Sanu was brought in, and Cephus has been splitting snaps with Sanu and Danny Amendola behind Marvin Jones. Jones has been a full-time player, and in the first game without Marvin Hall it was Sanu at 59% of the snaps, Amendola at 49%, and Cephus at 46%. Sanu has seen his snap share increase each week he’s been with the team, and Amendola was likely being eased back in after missing the previous two games, so there is reason to believe Cephus will play less this week. Jaire Alexander is likely to be shadowing Marvin Jones, so there is upside for the receivers behind him, but I don’t expect Quintez to be the beneficiary.
 
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Devin could’ve been a sneaky play this week if Willie Snead and Mark Andrews weren’t activated from the COVID list ahead of the game. The Browns allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and with Dez Bryant seemingly calling it quits after testing positive for Covid-19 on Tuesday, Duvernay would’ve been in line for a sizable role against that defense if Snead & Andrews were out. With them back he will play his usual role, a role that hasn’t seen him handle more than 3 targets in any game this season. He’s no more than a minimum-priced dart throw in DFS tournaments.
 
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Trautman was leading the Saints’ TE group in snaps for a few weeks with Taysom Hill at QB, but hadn’t converted those snaps to production. Last week he dropped to just 35% of the snaps, and posted just 3 catches for 9 yards against the worst TE defense in the league. This week will likely be the last start for Hill this season, and when Brees comes back I’d expect Trautman’s snaps to decrease even further. He’s playing because he’s a better run blocker than the other TE options on the team. We haven’t seen enough production from Trautman to consider him even in another plus matchup this week.
 
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
 
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The logic here is pretty simple. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite playing the worst team in the league. Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson are both less than 100% and Travis Homer is doubtful this week. If the Seahawks put this game away early, we could see a lot of Dallas in the 2nd half, and I like the Seahawks’ chances to put this game away early. The Jets’ new defensive coordinator said the scheme won’t change much with Gregg Williams gone. The Jets are one of the blitz-happiest in the league (3rd-highest blitz rate), and Russell Wilson feasts on defenses that give his receivers one-on-one coverage. The Jets are a better run defense than pass defense, so I expect Russ to carve them up in the first half, and for the Seahawks to put things on cruise control in the second half. Dallas costs the minimum on DraftKings, and could see double-digit touches in a game where the Seahawks implied point total is over 30 points.
 
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): As mentioned with Collin Johnson, the Titans are not a very good defense against wide receivers. They allow the 5th-most points per game to the position and rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. Shenault managed to post a useful day last week despite getting injured late in the first half, and this week could have a very favorable individual matchup. The Titans will be without Adoree Jackson, Breon Borders & Kristian Fulton at CB, and the likely guy they’ll ask to step in and start is Tye Smith. Smith has played limited snaps this season, but has allowed 2 TDs and a passer rating of 140.7 on the 11 throws into his coverage. Viska hasn’t really shown a big ceiling this season, but if there is a week for him to do it, it’s probably this one.
 
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): In the 5 games where Davis has played 70% or more of the offensive snaps, he’s posted 58+ receiving yards 4 times, averaging about 60 yards and 10 fantasy points per game in those contests. This one is a tough matchup. The Steelers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA, but there are 11 teams that allow fewer WR points per game than Pittsburgh, and John Brown remains on IR so Davis is likely to play almost every snap. He’s a reasonable flex option of you’re searching for points in a deep league.
 
WR Darnell Mooney, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): This matchup is a great spot for Allen Robinson, but Mooney could return nice value as well. In each of their 3 games without Bradley Roby, the Texans have allowed the opposing #1 receiver to put up at least 110 yards and a touchdown, but they are a lackluster pass defense overall. They rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, and in the last two games with Trubisky at quarterback Mooney has been targeted 15 times. That kind of volume in this matchup gives him a reasonable shot at 50+ yards, a mark he hasn’t reached since week 8.
 
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): KhaDarel Hodge is likely out this week, so Donovan Peoples-Jones should be the WR3 for Cleveland again Monday night. Game script will likely have the Browns throwing more this week than they did last week, and while he hasn’t seen a ton of targets DPJ has made a big touchdown play in both games where he’s played 50%+ of the snaps. There is some question as to whether Marvin Hall will steal any snaps from him in his first active game with Cleveland, but I’d expect it to be mostly Peoples-Jones. The Ravens allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so DPJ is no more than a cheap upside option for DFS tournaments.
 
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Austin Hooper is listed as questionable after popping up on the injury report Friday with a ‘did not practice’ designation for a neck injury. If Hooper misses this game, Bryant has upside in this one if you’re desperate for a tight end. The Ravens have a reputation as a tough defense, but they are in the middle of the pack against tight ends (17th-most TE points allowed per game) and Bryant posted a 4-56-2 line in the one game he played with Hooper sidelined that wasn’t in a monsoon. If Hooper sits, Bryant is probably a borderline top-15 play at tight end this week.
 
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you advance to next week. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
 
Check out Shawn this week on the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, starting on Wednesday at 9pm
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 17 Analysis and Picks (Last week of regular season!!!😀 )

Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)
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Sunday Games
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Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.
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Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.
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New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.
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Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...
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Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.
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Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.
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Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.
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Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.
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Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.
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Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn
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New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.
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Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑
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Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.
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Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.
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Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.
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Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)
Parlays (6-30, +33.96u)
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Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)
BBDLS (0-66, -50.24u)
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Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
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Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 10 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 10 TNF Recap: Whelp! 🙃 The algo was spot on with loving the Colts. However, my adjustments took me off the IND -9.5 Alt line I was going to play and put me on the HT/FT. Unfortunately it took Indy an extra quarter to get their defense rolling and they had a few shitty calls against them in the 1H. However, I did like the Colts to crush so I took a live play when they were down in the first quarter that was able to mitigate our losses. Big week 10 coming up, lets check out the games!
Singles (1-3, -5.05u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (u)
BBDLS (u)
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Sunday Games
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Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: I have skipped over this game all week. And now, Saturday night, I sit down to write and I still am unsure. My algo has PIT at -7.5. But, Big Ben and a few other have had to miss physical practices all week due to Corona protocols. Cincy is off a HUGE win over TEN (our algo was on that) however they just went into the bye. I would have rather taken them coming out of the bye off a loss. IDK, I think for now we say ride the dog or pass. There are many better spots today.
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Washington at Detroit: Garbage game of the week! Even though both of these teams have playoff chances... Washington is playing musical chairs with their QB over the last few weeks. This week it looks to be Alex Smith again. He looked relatively good vs the Giants last week. If it weren't for some poor WAS special teams play (that gave up 10 points to NY) That would have been a real game.
Detroit is coming off back to back losses giving up 41 and 34, and who knows what is going on there... Are they going to keep the Coach? Galloday? Stafford?! Also, Detroit may be without two starters on the offensive line this week... Detroit has been atrocious against the run this year. I would look at Washington utilizing their pass catching running backs in Gibson and JDM to control this game and take pressure off Smith having to do too much.
My algo has this game as a Pick-em so we are going to ride with the visitors. Another game worthy of a little sprinkle action 😎
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Houston at Cleveland: Here we have an AFC match up that CLE should be picking up if they want to be a playoff team. It is understandable for them to lose to the other playoff teams, but anyone with a losing record is a Must.
They will be facing a Texans team that last week came out of the bye and got their second win of the season... YAY! However, it was against the Jags...Starting a rookie QB...and they almost let the game go to OT after having an 11 point lead in the 4th....
Cleveland themselves is coming out of their bye and it appears to be the best time for them to have had it. They did lose the game going into the bye vs. the Raiders, however 100 mph winds and dropped passes seemed to be the game there. Now, coming out of the bye with 2 weeks of rest, they are returning two key starters on offense. #1 is the obvious Nick Chubb... and #2 is the Guard Wyatt Teller who was injured during the game vs. the Colts. Both look on track to return healthy and take on a Texans defense that is dead-last in the NFL against the run this season, allowing a whopping 159.5 rushing yards per game.
Here is the weather report for Cleveland on Sunday, "Mostly cloudy and windy with rain that should be ending in the afternoon. High 54F. Winds SW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph. "
With the return of Chubb and Teller, the Texans horrible run defense, AND the weather concerns. I would expect Cleveland to get back to their roots and look to run the ball 60-65% of the time and mix in some play action shots.
My algo has this as 30-24 CLE however with the weather concerns and predicted game script I would lean on a much lower scoring game.
Some extra info to consider: Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and they are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games as underdogs.
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Jacksonville at Green Bay: Bottom of the barrel Jaguars travel to Green Bay to take on the rested Packers who are off a win 10 days ago vs. the 49ers. This should be a GB game all day. In fact, this is most likely going to be my pick in the $100M Golden Ticket on DK. This does point to a shootout with something like a GB 34-17 repeat performance. However, Just like the Browns game the weather report is dangerous for shootouts. "Cloudy and windy. There will be periods of light rain in the morning. High 41F. Winds W at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph." Rain and snow are manageable, but heavy winds make it a running game script more often than not.
My algo has GB 31-20 so I don't think I feel comfortable laying the 13.5. However, JAX is JAX, so I definitely don't feel comfortable laying with them on the road with a rookie QB in bad weather...
This game is most likely a pass for me except for some Aaron Jones props.
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Philadelphia at NY Giants: Battle for the NFC EAST. Wow that sucks, considering these two teams have a combined record 5-11-1. Philly is coming out of a bye and returning a ton of offensive talent. "Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut after not receiving an injury designation, while Miles Sanders will start at running back for the first time since Week 6 (knee). Lane Johnson will start at right tackle after not receiving an injury designation. Jason Peters will start at left tackle. "
The Giants however are starting to come together defensively. Their offense is still meh, but their defense has kept them in their last 5 games (with two wins over WAS and 3 losses by a FG or less each time.
For me this come down to the same thing as the next game. Give me a home team, catching points, in a divisional game that is the second meeting.
Ehhh, during my morning poop I decided that the majority of bettors should be thinking the same thing here. Maybe I shouldn't overthink, but I'm back on the Eagles side. 💩
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Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game for Tampa Bay here. Losing last week to the Saints was a huge stumble for them, basically giving up control of winning their division. Carolina put up another hard fight and almost gave the Chiefs an upset, losing by only 2! In fact, since that last game vs. Tampa Bay the Panthers are 5-0 ATS when in the underdog role.
Normally, I would be all over Carolina. My algo actually has this as TB -4... Throw that in with TB having back to back poor showings prior and it seems like a perfect spot to take the home dog and the points.
However, when we look closer at when Brady has struggled this year, it's when the opposing team is generating pressure and creating sacks. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, Carolina does neither of those. The Panther have only 10 sacks and 23 QB hits so far this season. They are more of a drop back 7 or 8 and give up short stuff, but don't give up the long balls. Which is perfect for Brady to get back into his comfort zone.
Still even with Brady having more time in the pocket and TB probably righting the ship in the win column, I don't think there is value in the -6. Carolina is one of those pesky teams that is playing close games and this IS the second meeting for these two.
Extra notes: Brady 19-6 ATS after a loss. 7-1 ATS after a 20 points loss....On the other side, Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS in his career as an underdog including 5 straight covers as a dog this season...
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Denver at Las Vegas: Another divisional matchup. This one features the up and down Broncos coming off a loss who are 2-2 since the return of Drew Lock taking on the Raiders who are having an up season starting the first half 5-3. Even though the Raiders are playing at home for the first time in weeks and are allowing fans to this game, my algo is still showing this as only LV -1. It heavily favors the over and likes a lean on the Raiders to win, but the spread is far too high for me to consider Las Vegas.
Could be a spot to look at the Broncos value with some points but Lock has been bad in the first 3 quarters of most of his games, only really getting hot in the 4th when teams are up and drop into prevent D. I could see him starting faster today since he is taking on a Raiders D, however I thought the same thing vs. ATL recently and he stunk it up.
Jerry Judy is my prop look in this one.
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Buffalo at Arizona: Two similar high ceiling offenses meet in this one. At the start of the week I was all Buffalo. In fact, I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS with the Colts and others. However, after running the algo and checking the news my pick has shifted FIRMLY to the Cardinals. First of all, my algo spits this out a 25-28 game in AZ favor. However, with todays news of the Bills TE, two corners, and a safety on the covid list and not traveling for game, That pushes a lean to a strong lean.
Then, we look at each teams strengths and weaknesses. Both teams have potent offenses with mobile QBs and deep threat WRs, so basically a wash there. Defensively The Bills rush defense has been horrrrrible giving up 146 ypg over their last 5 games. On the other team, the AZ rush defense is not all the best, ranking overall 22nd in the league. So slight edge to AZ there. However, when we look at Buffalo losing their deep and edge players due to Covid this week I think we can safely say the edge is on the AZ side.
This is another perfect game to try a Same Game Parlay however I would be weary of the total. 56.5 is rather high. I like the over on 51 and below, but over 51 it loses its value.
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LA Chargers at Miami: This is a game I am excited to watch. My algo really likes Herbert and Burrow so it will be exciting to watch at least one of them in this game. There isn't much to this one. My algo has it as a Pick-em. Miami has placed two starters in the front seven on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Chargers Starting RB is now Bellange, coming home for a revenge game against a weak front 7... Behind him is the best rookie QB we have seen since Patty cakes...
MIA had a surprisingly big win last week but that high emotion leads me to believe they will start this game a little flat. If LA gets a lead, this game is over.
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Seattle at LA Rams: So this one actually hurts to write. I am a big SEA fan this year. I have a future on them to win the NFC and also the SB. However, I am also fond of this LA Rams team this year. I expected them to get over their SB slump (that the 49ers are in right now) and win at least 8/9 games this year.
My algo (as weird as it seems) is spitting out LAR -3.5 in a 27-23.5 style contest. I am still not sure I can place this bet on the Rams. Even tho the algo speaks, the Rams have only really beat the NFC East and the Bears this year. They haven't faced a QB like Russ yet, nor one that has weapons like DK and Lockett.
TBH this seems like the perfect game to middle on. Divisional battle. Possibly take SEA to +8.5 and balance it with some LAR ml or even LAR +3.5.
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San Francisco at New Orleans: Beep Boop Beep Boop! Alert alert. This game is so confusing! I feel like NO could win easy 34-17, or SF could upset win some 27-24 grind out with some trick plays and jets sweeps.
Obviously because of those many possible scenarios, the value is found in SF +10. Seems to be the perfect spot for it too. SF lost a blowout on primetime last Thursday and the Saints won a blowout in primetime last Sunday. Public money should be alll over the Saints. If taking a big dog is too much of a sweat for you there are some decent props to look at in this game. SF is getting back a TON of offensive weapons and I expect them to look for a lot of short completions that allow the receivers a safer way to get yards.
As crazy as this sounds, my algo actually has SF as -1.5 for this matchup... Im guessing it is assuming Jimmy G and Kittle are in, along with Sanders and Thomas being out but still and 11 point difference is the biggest I have seen all year.
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Baltimore at New England: Last game on the slate and it has the scariest feeling. I LOVE Baltimore this year. Outside of the Chiefs, they are my other AFC contender to go against the Seahawks in the Superbowl. The looked good last week bouncing back from their two losses to smack around the Colts team.
On the flip side, NE needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat... THE JETS.... who by the way, put up 30 on them...
Should be a slam dunk Baltimore go go go...
But what's scary to me is 94/93 % of the tickets AND the cash are on the Ravens. And allll week the line has barely moved. Even the Saints vs. the 49ers moved from 7.5-10 throughout the week.
So while I will need a Baltimore win to wrap up all my parlays and teasers on the day, some thing is very scary about those percentages. Vegas RARELY pays out 90 percent of bettors....
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Singles (60-81, -35.26u)
Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)
Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)
BBDLS (0-44, -35.69u)
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

Building and improving on existing D/ST projections

Hello and welcome back!
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When I started projecting D/ST points in 2012, things were a little different. I did most of my work by hand, to-and-from (and during) work, and the exercise was more to explore what could be done rather than anything too serious. I only ranked the options and did no projections. The thread got 11 comments – and only half of them were my own.
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In the six seasons since, I’ve made some big changes. Most importantly, they’ve all been good: I went back to school and graduated in mathematics. I found a job in data analysis. I’m getting married! And perhaps most relevantly to everybody here, the 2018 NFL season will be the first in a long time where I won’t be projecting D/ST scoring. So, this will be my attempt to unload everything I know so that somebody else (or many someones else) can pick up where I left off, improve the methodology, and continue to share their results with the fantasy community.
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Let’s start with the basics:
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D/ST scoring is composed of three main parts:
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  1. Points allowed
  2. Sacks
  3. Interceptions
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That’s it. Kind of. There are two remaining components but we will get to them in a moment. For now, let’s go through each of the three.
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POINTS ALLOWED
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This is the easiest and least important component, but it’s one where my methodology still made some very naïve assumptions for simplicity’s sake. First, where you do you find accurate scoring projections? My answer has always been Vegas (well, really, the answer is large offshore sportsbooks, but “Vegas” sounds sexier).
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https://imgur.com/a/8eUvzQl
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The screenshot here is from Pinnacle, widely accepted as the sharpest NFL sportsbook. When figuring out scoring expectations, you can either use team totals directly or derive them from the full-game lines. We’ll be doing the latter with the assumption that a full-game line has a larger max wager, less vigorish, and a sharper line – but they’re almost always going to match up anyway to prevent arbitrage, so use whichever is easier.
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In this example for Thursday night, the Eagles are favored at home by 2.5 points, and the game total is set at 45. The means the Eagles can expect 23.75 points ((45+2.5)/2) and the Falcons can expect 21.25 points ((45-2.5)/2). A quick check assures us that the results are correct, since 23.75 + 21.25 = 45 and the Eagles expect 2.5 more points than the Falcons. Easy.
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While these numbers are great for setting baseline expectations, things start to get really tricky in a hurry. We need to know not just how many points to expect, but we need to convert that single point into an actual scoring distribution. Here is where I made that first naïve assumption: while NFL scoring is very much NOT a normal distribution, I assumed that touchdowns and field goals could be tracked close enough to a Poisson distribution. This at least gets us toward scoring ranges that are good enough for what we need.
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Anybody working at this on their own should look at this as one of the first big improvements they can make.
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SACKS
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While points allowed make up a relatively minor component of D/ST scoring – consider, for example, a team that gives up a relatively average 21 points in a game might lead to a D/ST score of +0 or +1 depending on your scoring format – sacks are part of where the money is made. Sacks are important for three major reasons:
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  1. They are each +1 point
  2. They are a turnover-rich event
  3. Because they are yardage-negative and result in a loss of a down, they correlate loosely with lower scores
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Unfortunately, forecasting sacks can be a little difficult, because they are a function of multiple variables: The strength of the pass rush, the strength of the offensive line, the tendencies of the quarterback, the down and distance, the overall score… so here is where we can make another naïve assumption: average sacks per game by the DL and average sacks allowed per game by the OL can be virtual stand-ins for all of the variables named above.
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Now of course, they’re not, and this is one more avenue for someone to improve on the methodology going forward. However, given how much variance is present in D/ST scoring just because of the rules themselves, I’m not sure how much better the projections can be by improving here. To get an expected sack total in each game, I took the average sacks per game by the defense, the average sacks per game allowed by the offense, and took a weighted average (giving the home team a slight boost, which may have been incorrect to do).
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INTERCEPTIONS
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While sacks are a function of the offense and defense together (along with some in-game details such as score, down, distance, etc.), I took the D/ST component for interceptions to be defined largely by the offense’s quarterback. Another assumption (perhaps less naïve this time): quarterbacks could be expected to converge toward their career interception rates. This worked great in most cases, but in some of the most important cases (rookie quarterbacks or career backup quarterbacks), it fell far short.
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In these cases, I don’t have a good answer, and I tended to use my best judgmen in the cases where they came up. Sometimes, you can find an interceptions oveunder prop bet on a reputable gambling site and go from there. Sometimes you’ll just have to make something up and hope it’s close enough.
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Finally, similarly to sacks, I used a weighted combination of the defenses interception rate with the quarterback’s interceptions per game, weighted heavily toward the quarterback.
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MISSING PIECES
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We’re done! Right? Wrong.
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There are two major things missing: D/ST TDs and fumble recoveries.
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I assumed that fumbles were entirely random, and that every team would expect to recover approximately half of the fumbles they have available, and that every team would fumble at approximately similar rates. I would love to be proven incorrect on this, but I have not yet seen compelling evidence to the contrary.
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For D/ST TDs, I took a historical conversion rate for fumbles-into-TDs and interceptions-into-TDs and assumed that every team would convert that many of each into touchdowns. Here is another point of improvement to make in the methodology, and one that I have high hopes that someone in the community can make happen. An obvious blind spot to start with: I did not consider punt or kick return TDs at all, and I think there is probably some amount of variance that can be explained by simple variables that we have access to.
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ASSUMING INDEPENDENT EVENTS…
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OK, I have revealed quite a few naïve assumptions so far, and for the most part, I think most of them are reasonable, if not justifiable. There is one assumption that I’ve made however that is not, and it is probably the best place to gain an edge on mine (or other) existing models: To convert expected sacks, expected turnovers, and expected points into expected D/ST scores, I assumed independence with all events.
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Yikes? Yikes.
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The reason why should be obvious: It was way easier! But consider the two following scenarios:
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  1. A team expecting 21 points allows 21 points with 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery
  2. A team expecting 21 points allows 21 points with 0 sacks and 0 turnovers
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If we assume independence of events, the simplified odds of each happening are:
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p(21 points) * p(6 sacks) * p(2 interceptions) * p(1 fumble recovery)
p(21 points) * p(0 sacks) * p(0 turnovers)
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In reality, these events are not independent, and so the calculations above would be wrong. Using extreme case reasoning to illustrate, a team who gets 25 sacks does not have the same scoring distribution for points allowed as a team who gets 0 sacks. Of all the spots to improve on the methodology I’ve presented so far, this is the one that I think has the most potential to boost the efficacy of the model.
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I don’t think that’s an easy task, and it’s why I didn’t tackle it myself!
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COMBINING THE COMPONENTS
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I’ve alluded to most of this already, but to be explicit:
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  1. Convert Vegas point totals into a distribution.
  2. Gather expected sacks, expected interceptions, and expected fumbles, then convert using a Poisson distribution on each (adding in a factor for D/ST TDs).
  3. Assume independence and calculate EV for each team.
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2018-SPECIFIC TOPICS
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I sent out a call on Twitter for questions to answer here since I won’t be getting to anything major in-season. Here is a full list of what was asked, and my answers:
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“The one thing I’d like to get your opinion on is how high Football Outsiders is on the Browns and Packers DST. They have them ranked 5th and 6th. Is there something they know that nobody else does?”
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The Browns have something going for them right now that they haven’t had in a long, long time: Tyrod Taylor does not make very many mistakes. He’s probably the best QB they’ve had in a decade or more, and he does not turn the ball over very much. It might seem counter-intuitive to start an answer about their defense by pointing out their offense, but with the way D/ST scoring works, a bad QB can be a huge liability for a D/ST.
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That being said, I have no idea why they would be ranked in the top 6. Quite honestly, that seems ludicrous. They have some good pieces, but their season-long oveunder is just above 5.5 wins. That is… not good. For a D/ST to be a strong play, it has to be attached to a team that can expect to win, and the Browns just aren’t there yet. They’ve won 1 game in the past 32 tries. I would let somebody else sit on them, and quite frankly, they’ll just sit on the waiver wire in 99% of leagues.
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The Packers are a much more interesting option. They can expect closer to 10 wins, and they are unlikely to be home underdogs in any of their games, let alone more than 1-2 of them. That is a great start. They aren’t the most talented defense, and they’ve already suffered injuries to starters, but they are good enough to be drafted in all MFL10-style leagues and some 12-team redrafts. I would not go much farther than that. I’d give them something like a top 14 or top 16 score if I had to guess today for the end of the year.
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What's a quick-and-dirty way to rank streaming DSTs on your own (aka without your columns)?
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Easy! Look for the following, in approximately the order given:
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  1. Good defense favored at home against a bad offense
  2. Good defense favored on the road against a bad offense
  3. Good defense favored at home against a medium offense
  4. Medium defense favored at home against a bad offense
  5. Good defense favored on the road against a medium offense
  6. Medium defense favored on the road against a bad offense
  7. Bad defense favored at home against a bad offense
  8. Good defense as an underdog anywhere against a medium offense
  9. Good defense as an underdog anywhere against a good offense
  10. Bad defense favored at home against a medium offense
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In all cases, you can usually assume backup QBs are somewhere between “bad” and “medium” and third-string QBs are “bad.”
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Avoid teams on the road where possible, but especially avoid underdogs.
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Look for teams in low-scoring environments where you can expect lots of sacks and turnovers. Full game totals under 40 are low. Totals between 40 and 44 are OK. Anything above 44 starts getting into territory where you need to tread carefully. And remember, a team that’s a heavy favorite can thrive in a higher full-game scoring environment because their own scoring is a larger share of the total.
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Chase sacks and interceptions before chasing total point totals.
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If you follow these rough guidelines, you really can’t go too wrong.
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Will you provide your algorithms and data pipeline process?
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I think most of this is covered above, but please reach out if anything is unclear. I gathered most data by hand (copy/paste into Excel tables) from ESPN.com and teamrankings.com. This is the first thing I would go back to revise if/when I take this project back up, since I have learned so much more about data collection between when I started this and today.
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Q: is there anything we can apply or take away based on injuries or performance to the monthly stuff?
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My blanket assumption was that injuries don’t matter, suspensions don’t matter, and that most NFL players are far closer to replacement-level than we’re able to quantify. This obviously has some important exceptions – peak J.J. Watt, peak Joey Bosa, peak Khalil Mack, most good/great quarterbacks, etc. – but these should be fairly evident as they come up. Further, we get some amount of grounding on our model from the Vegas lines that get published, so we can see how many points each player is worth.
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The reason why we can assume these things is (in theory) because we are aggregating 11 players’ contributions on 60+ plays in a game, so the effect that any one player has is somewhat minimized, especially when it is a defensive player that may only play 30, 40, 50 snaps in a game.
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More importantly, to account for each of these missing players would be a monumental effort, and when combined with the fact that I’m unsure that it would even be worth accounting for, I ignored the effect in a vast majority of cases.
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Will we get a rank for week 1/first few weeks?
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I like the Ravens, Saints, Packers, Lions, and Jaguars in some order. Beyond them (or mixed in at the back-end of that group) would be the Vikings, Patriots, Chargers, and Titans. The Rams probably belong in there too somewhat. Denver might be worth a look but they could also just be bad.
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If you were hoping to bank on a D/ST not listed above, you should probably check your waiver wire and rethink where you’re at. Anything not on that list would have to have a very good season-long and week 2 expectation for me to sit through a bad week with them right now.
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I'd be curious to hear how you discriminate between teams that are closely ranked in your mind. How do you sort out the better option between two teams in similar positions for any given week?
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I always look at their next week to see if I can use either option for two consecutive weeks and save a waiver claim/FAAB. Sometimes you can find a gem that might cost you a quarter point of expectation in the current week, but they’ll be usable or good for 2-3 consecutive weeks. That’s almost always worth the tiebreaker in my opinion.
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If not, I’ll side with a home team or the team maybe just flip a coin. If your model can’t determine which is better, there’s really no reason to stress over the decision, and you can more usefully spend your time elsewhere.
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How do you do your assessment of good teams to target a DST against? I know you’ve got your algorithm but does it factor for changes in OL and skill positions?
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Most of this should be covered above. You want backup QBs, bad offensive lines, bad quarterbacks, bad receivers, and teams playing on the road. Accounting for personnel changes in season is difficult, and I tried to stay away from it as much as possible. Sometimes we just don’t have data on some of these players, and we certainly don’t have much reliable data on them. I find it’s better to stay away from situations like that entirely. I could be wrong!
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Q: Which defense that may go undrafted could finish top 12 ?
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Tough one, because I don’t know what is going undrafted right now! Looking at ADP, the Steelers have an ADP around Def13, and I like their odds of beating that. Kind of a weak answer though, since they don’t have to overperform by much to get top 12. The Packers, Lions, and 49ers are probably each threats to do it, but I would bet against each individually.
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Perhaps a sneaky answer is that most drafters could stream D/STs weekly and expect a top 8-12 D/ST score by playing matchups. By targeting a D/ST that projects strongly in Week 1, you give yourself the best chance to do both (land the undrafted D/ST that finishes top 12, and end up with a weekly D/ST average in the top 12).
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Are there any defenses in particular you’d hold for weeks 13-16? (Fantasy playoffs) or is it too early to tell?
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You got it right here: definitely too early to tell. The time to think about this is usually right around Week 10 or Week 11, when you can be assured that you’re looking at the playoffs and your own worst bye weeks are over. Plus, there’s almost no way to tell right now which ones will be worth holding and which won’t be.
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And that should do it for 2018. For anybody who would like to start doing their own projections, I strongly recommend exploring the math behind what does/doesn’t work and what does/doesn’t matter. If you find yourself hitting a wall along the way, feel free to reach out, but I do request that you try to make some headway on your own first. :) Beyond that though, I am happy to help almost any way I can.
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So with that: Fuck ICE, be generous, treat the people around you with the respect they deserve, and kick some ass in 2018.
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Any questions?
submitted by quickonthedrawl to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

Super Bowl Props and Squares Contest @ MyBookie!

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https://preview.redd.it/cvkwsepha0e41.jpg?width=1644&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb0f026c8020b51e7b059829a46cc616879281e3
Remember that back in the day, before Trump outragers, America was fun, you used to get NFL Square cards on the back of your case beer, woman only had stiff hair, and gambling was a American tradition, thankfully MyBookie.ag is keeping the tradition and offering football squares!! They've taken a classic sports contest and made it even better. Pick up your squares and win extra cash on your favorite NFL and basketball games every week - Buy Super Bowl Squares - Use promo code "6Clips" for a 50% signup bonus up to $300!
(FEB 02) EXCLUSIVE SUPER BOWL LIV EASY EARLY MONEY NFL PICK - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2 Betting Preview & Prediction
When: Sunday, February 2 Where: HARD ROCK STADIUM - MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA TV: FOX
SUPER BOWL LIV ODDS: Side: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2 Total**: 55** Chiefs-Niners at Super Bowl LIV - Written by Lester Cullan on January 21, 2020 Vegas sports gambling analyst heard on ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc.
Two of this year’s most impressive teams will meet on Sunday, February 2 in Miami Gardens when the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs at Super Bowl LIV.
Both teams looked strong during the Conference Championships, although the San Francisco (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) appeared to have a sharper edge, shutting out the Green Bay Packers in the first half before winning 37-20 as 7.5-point home favorites to claim the NFC title.
The Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) made it back to their first Super Bowl in 50 years by beating the Tennessee Titans 35-24, also as 7.5-point home favorites. Kansas City's head coach Andy Reid finally gets another chance to put his name in the record books; at the end of the 2004 campaign, Reid led the Philadelphia Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX, where they lost 24-21 to the New England Patriots in Jacksonville.
The 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is also looking for redemption after coming up short against the Patriots. This is his first Big Game as a head coach, but he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons at Super Bowl LI in Houston, where the Falcons coughed up that big lead and lost 34-28 in overtime.
SF 49er's:
KC Chiefs:
Game Total - 55
The betting public is leaning towards a KC win, making the Chiefs a slight favorite and there are not many believers on the San Francisco side of the line, kinda like the public was towards gays in the 90's
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might be a slight NFL betting favorite to win Super Bowl LIV, but Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers are looking like a team that won’t go down quietly – kinda like a gay man.
If you’re looking for reasons to back the Niners then you will be stretching for the few available reasons.
The Kansas City Chiefs have Travis Kelce but the 49ers have a tight end in George Kittle that is touted as the BEST tight end in the game! Kittle has 85 catches for 1,053 yards with 5 TD grabs. The problem is that Kittle has just 4 catches for 35 yards and absolutely no TD's in 2 games.
KC has a passing game that ranked them 5th in the NFL and they score points, also 5th in the NFL averaging 28.2 points a game, but they are horrible running the ball, the Chiefs rank 23rd in rushing and if San Francisco can shut down Pat's passing game they can force them to use that shitty run game!
The San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season ranked 6th in takeaways, 25 of them in all, they picked off Aaron Rodgers 2 times in the NFC Championship which ended up being the difference in their biggest game of the season.
Kansas City not only has a crappy rush game they cant't stop the run, this could be a problem for the betting public, the 49ers have the backs that have been under the radar this year, will this be the X-Factor? Will the rush game determine the winner of Super Bowl 54, running the ball controls the clock and the team that controls the clock wins. The Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of reasons to beat the Niners but can they?
Pick up your Super Bowl Betting Squares at MyBookie.ag and win extra cash the Big Game - Buy Super Bowl Squares
More Super Bowl Props & Futures Predictions available at RedAlertWagers.com
submitted by OpenVisionZ to onlinegamblingnews [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60
Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!
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Early Games (1pm)
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New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))
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Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.
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L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years
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Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.
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Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P
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NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.
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Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
  • Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness)
  • WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen)
  • OL Tim Jernigan (foot)
  • OL Jason Peters (knee)
  • RB Darren Sproles (quad)
  • CB Avonte Maddox (concussion)
The Bills have a list of questionables, but everyone seems to be a go.
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.
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Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.
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Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.
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Afternoon Games
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Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.
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Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.
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Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4qlJE4DZsc
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Sunday Night Football
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Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.
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Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
  • NYG +6.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYG ml (1u to win 2.5u)
  • Golden Tate 75+ Rec Yards (2u to win 2.3u)
  • Saquon 75+ Rush Yards (1u to win 1u)
  • Saquon 105.5+ Rush and Rec Yards (0u to win 3u)
  • Corey Davis 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • A.J. Brown 2.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.3u)
  • Phillip Lindsey 53.5 Rush Yards Over (0u to win 1u)
  • Phillip Lindsey to Score TD (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Chargers ml (1u to win 1.63u)
  • Chargers +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • Eckler 5.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.2u)
  • Eckler 45.5 Rec Yards Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Hooper 58.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • NYJ +7 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • NYJ ml (1u to win 2.7u)
  • Gardener Minshew 239.5 Pass yards Under (0u to win 1u)
  • New England -10.05 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Kenny stills 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
  • Aaron Jones 64.5 Rush Yards Over(0u to win 1u)
  • Aaron Jones 13.5 Rush Attempts (0u to win 2u)
  • Jamal Williams 21.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)
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Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
  • Titans ml, Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml (1u to win 1.86u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Bills ml (1u to win 2u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Den +5.5 (1u to win 2.2u)
  • Jets +7, LAC +3.5, NYG +3.5, CAR +4.5, NE -8.5 (2.5u to win 72.2u) This has "parlay insurance" A promo on DK wherein if 4 out of 5 legs hit, I get a refund on my bet.
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5 (0u to win 117.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-6 (-5.19u)
  • Ten ml, NYG ml, DEN ml, LAC ml, NYJ +7, Buf ml, NO ml, Sea ml, Car +4.5, NE ml, GB ml, Mia ml (0u to win 5438.7u)
  • Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5, SEA ml, Buf ml, Ten ml, Car +5.5 (0u to win 231.1u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-2 (-1u)
  • I put this in at the Ocean Casino, I will post in the comments if by some miracle all the 1 and 4 pm games hit. (0.5u to win 10000u)
Teasers: 5-11 (-11.18u)
  • I am putting in a teaser card at the Ocean when I head over there before the games today. I will post picks in the comments after I see the lines and place the bet.
Futures
  • NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
Notes for bets: So this week I drove to PA (I live in South Jersey) and I made new accounts on some websites in PA. Because of this I now have 45u in Free Bets that need to be used in the next 30 days. I will probably sprinkle them into my singles and take a 10u shot here or there on a parlay.
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Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 12 (Sunday Games)

CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 12 (Sunday Games)
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https://preview.redd.it/dfls0w8iuk041.jpg?width=1040&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d611e3666c8b40fb42179ac3e6b88807a4f11d04
Thursday Recap
Singles: 1-3 (-3u): Wow, what a sweat here. Carlos Hyde was a TD away from us hitting the first boost play, and in the second boost play we were TY Hilton off. He was back and played, but was very limited. Over 15 games with the Texans he has averaged 100+yards and almost a TD. This game was an outlier. :( Williams stepped in for Mack and crushed it. Had him all over :D
Parlay: 0-0 (0u): Texans covered a win despite loosing TOP and TO battle. Still live for Sunday!
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Williams went off and cruised to over 100+ yards. This was +500 and cleared! Exciting to see if this bet has chance once we hit the night games :D
SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None
Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None
DraftKings DFS Lineup: O-M-G. We were soooooo close here. I don't really play DFS but I have been slowly mixing it in when I see breakout spots for unknown players. We had a lineup that cashed...BUT...If I had just taken Hilton out of my lineup and put Will Fuller in his place...I would have had the ONLY lineup like that and taken the top spot in the 100k for first place, Thursday Showdown! Next time! :D
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Sunday Games
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Miami @ Cleveland (-10.5): We start off the day's slate with the Brown's hosting Fitzmagic and the Dolphins. Cleveland has been trending up as the second half of the season sees them with a much easier schedule. However, the last game against Pitt was brutal. They easily won, but lost a star defensive player in Myles Garret for at least the year, and who knows for really how long. In addition to Garret's absence, the Browns will be without defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi who is suspended for this game for his involvement in the fight on TNF.
I mean, 10.5 is a HUGE number for a team to lay that has a losing record. It's reasonable that CLE wins this game by 2 TDs ( I mean they are facing a MIA D) However, I feel like it's just max juiced because the books are protecting against CLE teasers. (Same in the Saints game) Seeing Cleveland win here is very reasonable. They are better in all categories than MIA and also MIA ranks bottom in the league in most defensive categories. However, if you take out the first few games where MIA was blown up...their stats come back down to earth and you see that they are actually not horrible. Minus the first 4 games where they lost by 20+, they are actually 5-1 ATS with their only loss coming last week to the Bills. My algo has this only @ CLE -4/6.5 (The range is due to the uncertainty in the defensive changes. With Garret and Ognjobi I have them almost a TD favorite but without, I adjust down.) There is some value on the MIA spread, however I think there are more reliable spots in this game. My algo has a predicted 27-22 and Vegas has the total at 45.5. I feel like Cleveland putting up points is a given. Its the Miami D, Jarvis Landry is facing his former team, OBJ is still on this team, CLE has two great RBs in Chubb and Hunt...Outside of Baker Mayfield this roster looks like it should be able to go for 27 EVERY game EVERY week! As for the Dolphins, DeVante Parker is the GoTo WR for Fitzy. He has been a target machine since Fitz returned and they first played Buffalo, with t/g of 10, 6, 8, 10 and 10. Him, and surprisingly a new RB stepping into the mix to take the check downs, PATRICK LAIRD might be worth a look this week if your book is offering any props on him.
Just to swing back to Landry; he is facing his former team, has had the last 4 weeks of targets/game of 10, 13, 10, 7 (with his down week being the most recent game) AND has scored a TD in his last 3 games. I think the usage continues and will be looking at him a lot in this one.
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Denver @ Buffalo (-4): Here we have a very interesting match up. Denver had a chance to upset MIN going up 20-0 but fell apart and lost a huge comeback win vs. Kirk Cousins. Honestly, outside of the Chiefs blowout, DEN has won or had a chance to late, in every game. The books are reflecting this pattern. They have a spread of +4 which usually has a money line value of around +150. (-165 for the favorite) Most books are offering the ML @ +175-185 for DEN and -200 or MORE for BUF. The Bills D is great against the pass but rushing gives up 4.4 ypc (19th) and 106 ypg (18th). Which plays right into the DEN agenda as they have a young QB making only his 3rd start and a two headed RB attack to take the pressure off the young QB. On the flip side, the DEN D has been great lately. Since starting 0-4, they are 3-3, have 19 sacks (started the season getting none in the first few games), They have the number 2 red zone D (Looking at over in the BUF kicking props), AND they are getting more than a field goal in a game that has the lowest projected total of the day. Oh, and since starting 0-4, they are 5-1 ATS with the only loss being the blowout vs. KC.
As for props, there are a few to look at here. As I said, I expect DEN to stick to the run game, so I will be looking at the #of attempts for the DEN RBs. Because of the DEN D I will be looking at Josh Allen rush yards in this game, as well as the Bills total in field goals. If I can find it, I may also sprinkle some on Von Miller Sacks. He started the year cold, but has been waking up the last few games.
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Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+6.5): Choo Chooooo, all aboard the underdog train. Last stop, Cincinnati! We have a big divisional game that sees the Steelers fighting for a wild-card spot. My Algo surprisingly has this as Cincy -2.5 and 40.5 ...sooo either I am WAY off OR Vegas has adjusted the line for the market because Cincy is a 0 win team and PIT has a wildcard spot to play for. Overall, the PIT D is pretty good, only allowing 20 ppg and currently top 4 in sacks and 2nd in INTs. However, the PIT O ranks in bottom 5 of almost everything, but then again, so does the Cincy pass AND rush defenses. The Steelers Center Mike Pouncey is suspended for this game for his involvement in the TNF brawl. Also sitting out is JU-JU. On the Bengals side, really they are essentially playing to not go 0-16. On the bright side for them, according to DVOA analysis, they have the TOP special teams unit. Which is crazy...they haven't won a game. There isn't much I am looking at in this game, but I do lean Cincy and the points (with a little ml sprinkle) and my favorite look (even though its a long shot) is the Cincy D/ST unit to score a TD. This is a divisional game with PIT having a backup center. I like a D/ST score somewhere in the game to keep it close.
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NYG @ Chicago(-6): A curious NFC match up here. The Giants coming off a bye while Chicago is coming off a SNF loss in LA. The Bears offense...just...there's nothing to say up to this point. Outside of looking great vs. the Redskins early on, they have done nothing. Lucky for them if they are going to do something, the Giant's secondary is a good match up to start. Honestly I dont see much value in this game. If you have it available, the Giants have a new TE starting (Simonson). With Engram and Ellison out, Simonson should get some targets. To add to that, the Bears are one of the WORST defenses vs. the TE position. Sterling Shepherd is back, but taking any Giants WR props vs. the Chi D is risky as outside of the TE position as the Bears defend rather well. Taking any CHI props...I mean, I cant. I want to look at the CHI WRs because the NY secondary is horrible, however, no matter how bad the NY secondary is, it is still Mitch Trubitsky throwing them the ball...
The Bears ruled out linebacker Danny Trevathan, who hurt his elbow two weeks ago, and tight end Adam Shaheen, who has a foot injury. Outside linebacker Isaiah Irving, who has a quad injury, is questionable.
Honestly, I think the Bears should be favorites. My algo had this as 17.5 - 22.5 (Bears -5 ). However, with the return of some Giants on offense, the missing pieces for the Bears D, and the fact that last Sunday's loss to the Rams all but takes the Bears out of playoff contention...I have to lean NY and the points. \BTW Daniel Jones since week 8 has 9 TDs 1 INT (he has fumbled a lot but most are due to sacks)*
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OAK @ NYJ (+3): This is one of the tougher caps on the early games for me. My algo has this as NY PK/-1. Vegas has this as OAK -3. I feel like this is going to be a weird one. Just like the Bills game, the books are making you pay up for the Favorite straight up. The Raiders offense is pretty good, especially the last few weeks. However, it's core is Josh Jacobs and the run game. Carr is completing over 72% of his passes but that's primarily because the Raiders commit to establishing a power run game and the success of that allows Carr to often be in 3rd and short situations. This allows for easier 3rd down conversions and sustained drives. Unfortunately for them, the Jets have one of if not the best run stopping D in the league. This game will come down to Carr finding his WRs and out scoring the Jets offense that surprisingly has averaged 34 ppg over their last two games (both wins but vs the Giants and Redskins). That offense will be going up against a Raider D that is...Ehhh, Ok. They are average against the run and Horrrrible against the pass, but they do get to the QB enough to cause some trouble. The Jets btw are top 3 in ST. I do lean the Raiders to pull out a win, but I have to say with the extra field goal it almost pushes my lean to the Jets.
I dont have too strong a lean to either side on the spread, but this game looks like it has the potential to be a shoot out. Especially if the Jets can find an early lead. Both teams have QB/WTE combos that are good, going against pass defenses that are suspect. \Extra note on the Raiders D: they have given up almost a TD more in Road Games Vs. Home Games.*
If you follow me, you'll know I love to look at spots when a West Coast favorite is traveling east for a 1pm game. In this spot I will be looking at the Jets 1Q. Currently they are +170 in the 1Q Tie no bet
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Carolina @ New Orleans(-10): Well, well, well... Last week basically told the stories for these two teams. Both had a stumble the week before but only New Orleans was able to right the ship. Carolina proceeded to struggle, losing SU in a key divisional game that had major playoff implications for them. It seems as if the swagger has come off Kyle Allen as teams develop more film on him and break this offense down to its one-dimensional core... CMC. Limit CMC, pressure Allen, Profit. As I said earlier with the Cleveland game, I think this line is juiced to protect against NO teasers. My algo has this game @ 27-20 Saints. While i don't think the extra 3 points is fully needed, I don't think it warrants enough of a change to lean Carolina. A few weeks ago, yes, but that loss to TB last week all but sealed Carolina's fate of missing this years playoffs. If ever there was a week for them to lack the motivation to compete, this feels like the week. Even if they go 5-1 over their last 6 (this assumes they beat the falcons, colts, Seahawks and split with the Saints) they would still be less than a coin flip to even earn the wild card spot. That loss against ATL should have taken the wind out of their sails. While Carolina has struggled offensively lately, their defense is still ok. Their pass D and pass rush are pretty good, but the run D is full of holes. If I look at any props in this game it will be the RBs of New Orleans or Cameron Jordan Sacks.
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Tampa Bay @ Atlanta(-3.5): Another divisional game sees two teams trending in the opposite direction. The Bucs are sliding losing 5 of their last 6. Atlanta has come out of their bye on fire winning their last two SU and not allowing a TD along the way My algo is predicting this as TB 26-25 with the spread being closer to ATL -2.5 with home field. On paper this looks like a shoot out. Two teams with no run games and high octane passing offenses vs bad passing Ds. It’s been two months since the Bucs have held an opposing team under 27 points and these two teams have combined to score at least 54 points in five of their past six meetings and more than 60 in their past two. The only thing that is concerning to me is 70% of the bets are on ATL and the line has only moved from 3 to 3.5 and to take the ATL money line you have to pay a premium. If I were to look at any bets in this game, I would have to say my main man Julio Jones is the spot to watch. "Since 2016 (six games), he has caught 46 passes for 766 yards and five touchdowns against Bucs. Jones averages 7.3 catches for 121 yards in 14 career games against the Bucs. In the last five, all Atlanta victories, he’s averaged 12.2 targets and 140 yards receiving. Thrown in there is a 253-yard, 12-catch game." To add to that, Tampa Bay has allowed opponents’ No. 1 receivers to catch 10.4 passes per game (most in the NFL) and gain 90.1 yards per game (only Atlanta has allowed more) In other words, Throw some bones on Jones.
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Detroit @ Washington(+3.5): This is another difficult one to cap. Two backup QBs on teams that are out of the playoffs. Detroit and Driskle aren't playing bad, but lost both Driskle starts. Haskins finally scored last week, but it was in garbage time in a blowout loss. If you look at Driskle he was waaay more efficient in his second start for the Lions. I feel like this was mostly due to Bo Scarbrough. He came in and gave a little life to the Lions run game going 14 for 55 and a TD vs the Cowboys. The Redskins have one of the worst run defenses in the league so I expect Detroit to lean on him again this game. As for Haskins, he looks like he is starting to settle into the speed of the game. He still doesn't look ready to lead a team over a season, but he will be interesting to watch how he grows the rest of this season. Luckily for him Detroit's weakness on defense is...well..defense. They just aren't that good at it. Now, not to bash them too much, they have had a verrry difficult schedule (eagles, chiefs, packers, vikings, cowboys, even the raiders and cards are decent). If I am looking at any props on the Redskins side, it will be Guice and Harmon receptions. They both look like comfortable outlets for the young QB and I would expect him to have opportunity to toss it this game.
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Seattle @ Philadelphia(-1): I dont even want to choose a side in this one. My algo has this at 23-23, Making Philly -2 at home. I mean, there is a reason Vegas makes teams with worse records a favorite in a game. They just did it with Cleveland vs buffalo and Cleveland vs Pitt. Vegas knows records don't mean much. However, this Seattle team just seems to have the magic this year. I thought that Seattle was going to lose to Tampa bay when they faced a good run d and decent o, they somehow made it through that one. now they face the Eagles which is basically Tampa bay D with a QB that is better. To me this comes down to offensive weapons...will the eagles be Getting back Alshon Jeffrey and Agalohr? If so, i think they can compete and possibly win this shootout. If not, who is there to throw to besides the two tight ends? I think this game has the potential for a shoot out and I will definitely be monitoring the injuries and looking totals.
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Jacksonville @ Tennessee(-3.5): Another divisional battle with wild card implications. Both of these teams are essentially in control their own destiny mode. If either one wins out...Playoffs. Tenn will look to hop on the back of Derrick Henry. He was held in check during the first meeting, but overall the Jags defense has been horrible against RBs this season. Jacksonville will hope Nick Foles has had enough time to wake the fuck up and show why they purchased him. This is a prime BDN situation...Every game from here to the playoffs is a BDN spot. Lets see if hes still got it. My algo has this 23-22 TEN with TEN -3/4 after HFA. But, it's hard to judge if BDN will effect the stats on the JAX offense so for that reason, I'll probably just avoid most spots in this game.
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Dallas @ New England (-5.5): My algo has this 25-19 Patriots with a spread being closer to NE -8. This opened at -7 but has moved to 5.5 in most places. What is difficult to cap in this game is there are sooo many Patriots offensive players on the injury report. It's tough to know who is playing, if anyone?! For Dallas, Dak is coming off one of his best performances ever and everyone seems healthy. Game script wise, this seems like the classic patriots use 3 or 4 RBs to burn the clock and keep the Dallas offense off the field and out of rhythm. For Dallas it's the same thing, just through Zeke. Pound him, get Dak in 3rd and short, and extend drives. While I lean Patriots, I don't think I can feel comfortable laying over 2.5. The Dallas offense has a lot of weapons and one thing that always seems to trouble Belichik defenses it's mobile QBs.
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Green Bay @ San Francisco(-3): The Marquee match up of the slate, saved for the last game of the night. The Packers are coming off a bye and SF is coming off a late win vs the Cardinals. My algo has this as 20-25 SF with SF being an almost TD favorite. A big part of GBs chances will be the effectiveness of their run game. The 49ers are allowing an average of 110.5 rushing yards per game (20th). Aaron Jones averages over 4 ypa and Jamaal Williams averages 4.5 ypa. I want to like SF here because outside of their run D, they are better and deeper at almost every position. However, this is the 3rd game in 14 days for SF with the first being a loss, and the second being a win but only after trailing the whole game. I have to take Rodgers coming off two weeks of rest and preparation vs a team that is looking like it's coming back to normal. If props, I would look to both teams running cores.
Did a Friend Referral on DK this week. Have some Free Bets to use there. Will probably put them all on parlays but they don't expire until Christmas.
Singles 76-78-3 (+22.32u)
  • Jarvis Landry to score TD Anytime (1u to win 1.65u)
  • Jarvis Landry 4.5 Rec Over (1.4u to win 1u)
  • Jarvis Landry 61.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • DeVante Parker 4.5 Rec Over (1.5u to win 1.71u)
  • Phillip Lindsay 14.5 Rush Attempts Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Von miller 0.5 Sacks Over (1u to win 1.1u)
  • Bills 1.5 Field goals OVER (2.6u to win 2u)
  • Cincy 1H +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Cincy 1Q 3way (1u to win 2.15u)
  • Cincy +6.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Cincy 37.5 Under (1.1u to win 1u)
  • NYG +6 (1.1u to win 1u)
  • NYJ 1Q 3way (1u to win 1.7u)
  • Alvin Kamara 5.5 Rec Over (2.22u to win 2u)
  • Cant seem to find Julio Receptions being offered anywhere, only his yards and it's already close to 100, so not much value to be found. Keep checking the comments to see if I find a website posting his reception total.
  • Bo Scarborough 52.5 Rush Yard Over (2.22u to win 2u)
  • Still looking for Guice and Harmon Receptions, nothing posted yet
  • No Seattle/Philly bets yet, waiting for late Sunday morning to monitor injuries and totals.
  • NE 44.5 Under (1.1u to win 1u)
  • GB +3 (1.1u to win 1u)
Parlays: 4-8 (+38.3u)
  • Hou ml, NO ml, DEN +4, DET ml, NE ml, BAL ml (0u to win 57.24u) Currently my last bonus $ on SugarHouse.
  • CLE ml, NO ml NE ml (0u to win 5.6u) DK Free Bet
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-7 (-7.54u)
  • Williams 100+ yards, CLE ml, CIN ml, NYG ml, JAX ml, GB ml, NO ml, NE ml, BAL ml (1u to win 1271.32) Little gamble here on Williams to go huge mixed with some underdog sauce
  • Bills 1.5 Field Goals Made Over, Cincy D/ST Score Anytime, DeVante Parker 4.5 Rec Over, Alvin Kamara 5.5 Rec Over, Bo Scarborough 52.5 Rush Yards Over, (0u to win 308.64u) DK Free bet
  • NYJ +3.5, NO ml, DEN ml, CIN ml, NYG ml, Atl ml, NE ml, GB ml (0u to win 930.76u)DK Free bet
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-6 (-3.5u)
  • OMW to the Ocean now to put one in.
Teasers: 6-15 (-21.3u)
  • OMW to the Ocean now to put one in.
​
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D
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vegas prop bets nfl playoffs video

NFL Open Line. One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. Welcome to TheLines’ betting hub for the 2021 NFL Playoffs. On this page you’ll find current betting odds for every game throughout the 2021 NFL postseason, including spreads, totals, and moneylines.Plus, if you’re into betting player props, be sure to check out our free NFL prop shop to find the best odds for every player and team in the playoffs. As teams advance to the next round of the NFL Playoffs, bettors have another opportunity to place NFL wagers on intriguing Divisional Round prop bets in addition to the individual games themselves. And, just like we did with the Wild Card Round , let’s take a look at some of the weekend’s top football prop bets to see where we can find value and make some money. NFL playoffs gambling guide: Locks, props, trends, what to avoid, more for the 2020 conference championships The AFC and NFC conference championships are here, so we broke down all the best picks ... NFL Props provided by VegasInsider.com, ... NFL Expert Picks NFL Vegas Odds NFL Global Odds NFL Matchups NFL Scores. MLB MLB Expert Picks MLB Vegas Odds ... If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-BETS-OFF. (IN) If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. NFL prop bets, or proposition bets, can go in a wide category of “anything but.” If an NFL sports betting line is not in a “classic” category such as NFL futures , point spreads, moneylines, and Over/Under totals, the chances are that it’s some sort of prop bet. NFL Football Players Betting Props Las Vegas Sports Betting and Bovada Sportsbook have joined forces to generate the most complete odds and game matchups site on the Web. View the most up-to-date odds for all NFL Football, MLB baseball, NBA Basketball, NASCAR, NHL Hockey, WNBA Basketball, and NCAA college football and basketball games, updated every two minutes. NFL Playoffs (Conference Championships) Betting Odds & Prop Bets according to Bovada Sportsbook. January 19, 2020. NFL Specials How Many Games Will Go to Overtime - Conference Championships Over 0.5 +425 Under 0.5 -800 . NFL Specials How Many defensive and special teams touchdowns will be scored - Conference Championships Over 0.5 -110 NFL Playoffs (Conference Championships) Betting Odds & Prop Bets according to Bovada Sportsbook. January 19, 2020. NFL Specials How Many Games Will Go to Overtime - Conference Championships Over 0.5 +425 Under 0.5 -800 . NFL Specials How Many defensive and special teams touchdowns will be scored - Conference Championships Over 0.5 -110

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vegas prop bets nfl playoffs

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