Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for.
Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league.
Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12)

Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain.
Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith.
Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course.
Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season.
Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.

Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside.
Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage.
Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.

Carolina Panthers (5-11)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina.
Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly.
Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years.
Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City.
Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)

Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks.
Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021.
Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.

Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come.
Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here.
Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense.
Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas.
Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.

Denver Broncos (5-11)

Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term.
Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb.
Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.

Detroit Lions (5-11)

Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts.
Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn?
Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.

Green Bay Packers

Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers.
Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline.
Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.

Houston Texans (4-12)

Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence.
Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild.
Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard.
Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop.
Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)

Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short.
Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack.
Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes.
Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)

Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas.
Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co.
Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store.
Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level.
Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move.
Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him.
Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.

Miami Dolphins (10-6)

Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move.
Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back,
Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings.
Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop.
Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.

New England Patriots (7-9)

Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB.
Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential.
Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.

New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger.
Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons.
Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.

New York Giants (6-10)

Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants.
Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall.
Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.

New York Jets (2-14)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview.
Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly.
Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)

Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory.
Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to.
Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over.
Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere.
Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).

San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run.
Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market.
Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.

Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen.
Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)

Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold.
Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh.
Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.

Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher.
Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB.
Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.

Washington Football Team (7-9)

Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division.
Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved.
Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.

2021 Mock Draft V6 - Deshaun Watson trade edition

1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - At this point, the only way Lawrence wont go first is if the Jags somehow write the wrong name on the card.
2 - New York Jets - Justin Fields, QB, OSU - Zach Wilson vs Justin Field has become a hotter debate in recent times, with mocks seems to split 50/50 on which of the 2 will go before the other. This one will likely end up coming down to preference, but personally I prefer Field’s upside and athleticism. Still, it’ll probably end up being a close call overall.
3 - Carolina Panthers (via MIA via HOU - sends 1.08, 3.73, 2022 CAR 1st, 2022 CAR 2nd, for 1.03) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - This seems like a lot at first glance, but I’d bet on the Panthers being much improved next year with the return of a healthy McCaffery and Joe Brady/Matt Rhule having another year to establish their system. What that means is that if the Panthers can improve at QB, they could be a legitimate playoff contender. Teddy Bridgewater is not the answer, and IMO when you have someone as good as CMC, you need to give him a good QB. The Panthers don't want to end up like the Vikings, sticking a bunch of mediocre at best QBs next to their stud RB.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - I know there’s a large portion of Falcons fans who really want to go anywhere but QB here, but how much longer can Matt Ryan play at a high level? With the 2022 QB class still full of question marks, grabbing your guy of the future right now would be a prudent move. Its instant gratification vs long term strategy. And with the success of raw QBs at the next level under proper development, Trey Lance looks like a solid bet. He’s got a great arm, and plays smart enough to only have a single interception in his college career. There’s a serious ceiling here, and he could absolutely benefit from learning from Matt Ryan for a year. Arthur Smith completely revitalized Tannehill as well, so maybe he could turn Lance into a stud.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - Seems like it ends up working out for the Bengals, who really need to protect Joe Burrow. There’s been whispers that teams have Rashawn Slater over Sewell currently, but I partially chalk that up to prospect fatigue. IMO Sewell’s the best OT in the class, and although he’s got areas he can improve, his body of work is utterly dominant currently. If he can polish up his technique and stay healthy, he’ll be a godsend to the Bengals OL.
6 - Eagles - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU - DeVonta Smith has been crazy this year, but it seems like people have forgotten Ja’Marr Chase was just as dominant last year too. Honestly, the Eagles really can't go wrong here with either WR, but IMO Chase is more of a sure thing to be dominant in the NFL, as minute of a difference as that is.
7 - Detroit Lions - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - After that insane performance against Ohio State, I don't think the Lions can pass up on Smith here, even as bad as their defense is. With their entire WR corps being possible FAs, they need to find replacements ASAP, especially if they cannot find a way to agree to a deal with Kenny Golladay. As for Smith well, he’s a beast. Plain and simple. Y’all saw what he did to Ohio State in just one half.
8 - Houston Texans (Via MIA via DET - Sends Deshaun Watson, 2022 HOU 3rd for 1.08, 2.50, 2022 MIA first, 2023 MIA first, Tua Tagovailoa, salary fillers) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan - The Dolphins send away Tua + a ton of picks for a shiny new franchise QB, and the Texans begin their rebuild. First up is addressing the defensive line. JJ Watt is very likely gone, Whitney Mercilus is done, and Jonathan Greenard has disappointed. They need someone who can make a serious impact, now. Kwity Paye has been one of the most dominant players in college football, with an insane pressure rate, and is a supposed athletic freak who runs a sub 6.8 3 cone at 6’4’’, 272, with some claiming it being as low as 6.37. No matter what the time ends up being, it's utterly insane for someone of his size, and he could likely play the same role that Watt does for the Texans.
9 - Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - The Broncos do really need CB, but there’s a pretty big hole in the middle of the defense next to Alexander Johnson. Josey Jewell isnt a 3 down LB, and it's really hard to pass up on Parsons here, an elite LB who can be the tonesetter of the Broncos defense from day one. Pairing up Parsons and Johnson should give Denver two monsters in the middle of the defense.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech - Now that Dan Quinn’s the new DC, meaning that they’ll be running a ton of Cover 3. And with how much Quinn loves his physical/athletic CBs who can play both man and zone, Caleb Farley is the natural pick here IMO. He’s sticky as glue, with fluid hips and a size profile that NFL teams dream of, perfect for pattern-match that should be used a lot in Dallas next season. His zone coverage does need a little work, but the Cowboys will likely be doing mostly spot-drop zone, which is pretty simple to pick up, and outside of injury concerns, Farley should be a huge help for the Dallas defense.
11 - New York Giants - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - The Giants love their press man coverage, but were forced to run zone a lot last year due to how bad their cornerbacks were outside of James Bradberry. Jaycee Horn fits their preferred scheme, and also shores up that huge hole at CB2 that they have. No CB in the class is as good as disrupting WRs at the LOS as Horn is, and he’ll be a great addition to what was a surprisingly good defense last year.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama - The 49ers have 0 CBs under contract next year. They need building blocks now, especially with Robert Saleh now gone. Patrick Surtain fits into their zone heavy system perfectly. He’s got elite ball skills, is consistently disruptive, and can stick to WRs like glue. He’d be the perfect guy to replace Richard Sherman if the 49ers cant bring him back, and should be able to slot in at CB1 or CB2 immediately.
13 - LA Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern - Slater’s a guy who's been getting a ton of hype in recent times, with some even putting him above Sewell. How much of that is real and how much of it is smoke? Hard to say at this point, but I do know that he’ll be an upgrade no matter where he slots in for the Chargers. Protecting Herbert should be there #1 priority right now, especially for the terrible LA OL. Slater should be a fantastic player for the Chargers from day 1.
14 - Miami Dolphins (Via Minnesota Vikings - sends 1.18, 3.82 for 1.14) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - Miami goes ALL in here. With Watson now on the roster, their window is now, and they treat it with urgency, giving up some more draft capital to grab the last of the 3 main stud WRs in the class. Jaylen Waddle fits what Miami needs right now, a speed demon joystick who would be what Will Fuller was for Watson in Houston, a connection that was lethal even with Fuller being injured constantly. Watson to Waddle should be one of the deadliest partnerships in the league, turning the Miami offense into a high powered scoring machine.
15 - New England Patriots - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - Mac Jones is a guy who’s worked his way from fringe QB prospect all the way up to R1 guy. I'm not sure if the NFL likes him as much as most people in the draft community do, but he’s a smart QB who was instrumental in leading the Crimson Tide to a National Championship. I’d say he grades out pretty well at all the important areas of being a QB, like his arm, going through progressions, that kind of thing. This only big flaw IMO is his ability to extend plays, but the Patriots have the OL to shore up that weakness. The main question here is how will Mac Jones play without any solid WRs? The Patriots receiving corps is barren, so that will be something that must be addressed soon.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State - The Cardinals offensive line seems to consistently lose at the LOS, something that was a huge part in them not making the playoffs. With that in mind and all of the top 3 CBs long gone, they grab the mauling OG out of Ohio State, an absolute mauler who can hit hard to create space in the run game. He’s a great fit for the Cardinals run game, and should give them some of the nasty they’ve been lacking.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah, LB, Notre Dame - It's hard to say what the Raiders will go with, as Mayock has not been on the job that long, but this is a pick that I agree with Daniel Jeremiah on. The Raiders lack that dynamic linebacker who can move around and cover everything, and JOK should be able to line up all over. He’s perfect for an NFL that seems to value positionless players more, and especially for a Raiders defense that’s going to be stuck against Travis Kelce for the near future.
18 - Minnesota Vikings - Gregory Rousseau, DE/DT, Miami - When your sack leader is a guy you traded away half way through the season, there's a problem. That Vikings defense was inexcusably bad this year, even with the loss of Danielle Hunter, and basically cost their offense a shot at the playoffs. They need to add some juice to the pass rush ASAP. Gregory Rousseau would be perfect, a raw and crazy athletic player who can line up all over the defensive line to wreak havoc. Considering Minnesota turned one athletic freak into a stud, they should have confidence that they can make Rousseau great too, and he’d be a wonderful addition, especially considering the fact that the Vikings have moved around their edge rushers to exploit mismatches, most notably against the Saints.
19 - Washington Football Team - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech - There doesn't seem to be a solid answer at QB available here for Washington, so they look to bolster up their trenches in order to replace the departed Trent Williams. Darrisaw has the size and length to be a fantastic NFL tackle, along with an extremely strong anchor and some great agility for his size. His technique needs to be cleaned up a little, but he could easily lock down the LT spot for Washington in the future.
20 - Chicago Bears - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - Allen Robinson is gone, leaving a huge hole at WR1 for Chicago. Seeing as there’s not really a great way to fix Chicago’s QB situation, they instead look to try and make the most of their closing window. Rashod Bateman should come in and be the WR1 for Chicago, a great route runner with sure hands who can snag a ball and some more yards after the catch. Hopefully Trubisky builds a much better connection with him than he did with Arob.
21 - Detroit Lions (Via IND - sends Matthew Stafford for 1.22, salary filler) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa - The Lions defense really needs help at LB. Jarrad Davis is probably starting again, but Tavai really shouldnt be. Zaven Collins can step in and be the best LB in the Lions from day 1, an absolute freak athlete who can cover, can stop the run, and even has a pass rushing upside. He’s the perfect chess piece for the new Lions defense to build around, and should be an immediate impact player from day 1.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa - The Titans need pass rush in every capacity, and that includes from the defensive line. Jeffery Simmons is a monster, but he doesn't get much help. He’d pair up great with Daviyon Nixon, a freak athlete out of the B1G who excels most when he gets to pin his ears back and just attack the QB. His ability to cause issues down the middle should help alleviate the Titans pass rush issues somewhat.
23 - New York Jets (Via SEA) - Kyle Pitts, TE/WR, Florida - The Jets just need to add weapons to their team at this point. Their WR corps has little promise outside of maybe Mims, and their TE corps is equally barren. Pitts addresses both of those issues at once. Able to play all over the lineup, Pitts can work as both a huge WR and a TE, able to consistently beat coverages and get catches against defenses. He’ll be a great weapon for Fields to utilize, a truly dynamic threat who could be one of the best receivers on the Jets from day 1.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame - A lot of the Steeler’s tackle depth, most notably starting LT Alejandro Villenueva, will be lost to FA, and Pittsburgh needs to address that ASAP. Liam Eichenburg isnt the most athletic OT with a crazy high ceiling, but he’s a solid technician who should be able to start from day 1, perfect for a contending team like the steelers.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas - The Jaguars need to protect their investment, especially with Cam Robinson a question mark to be back due to his poor play. Protecting a young QB should be the #1 priority after landing one, and Cosmi is a tantalizing prospect to add. He’s got plenty of athleticism and a frame that’s waiting to be filled out, a solid pass blocker who can deal with speed rushers really well. He’s a high ceiling prospect who could become a great LT and lock down Tlaw’s blind side for the future.
26 - Cleveland Browns - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami - Sometimes it just feels like the Browns defensive line is just Myles Garrett. That can't stand. The Browns need to give Garrett some help in the pass rush, and that's why they pick Jaelen Phillips. There’s a lot of injury concerns here, but if Phillips can stay healthy, he’s an absolute MONSTER in the pass rush, having notched 8 sacks in just 5 games this year. If he can stay on the field, he and Garrett should give opposing offensive lines some serious headaches.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Alijah Vera-Tucker, iOL, USC - The Ravens need to bolster their offensive line more. After the loss of Marshall Yanda, the Ravens offensive line has taken a notable step back, and Ronnie Stanley’s injury certainly didn't help there. AVT’s easily BPA at this point, an interior beast who is a stone wall with excellent hand usage. He should be able to make the Ravens offensive line even better, and boost their already lethal run game to higher levels.
28 - New Orleans Saints - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida - Im sorry, I don't think Taysom Hill is an NFL level QB. Especially not for a title contender. Drew Brees is retired, and I doubt Winston will be back. That means QB is the most glaring hole in NO. Kyle Trask might never be Patrick Mahomes, but he’s a good solid player who can make accurate passes, adjusts to pressure well, and is willing to extend plays. With the Saints filled with weapons and talent, Trask should be a good enough game manager to help the Saints be contenders for the rest of their window.
29 - Green Bay Packers - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington - Kenny Clark and Keke Kingsley are building blocks along the defensive line, but the Packers could afford to add some depth. Onwuzurike has been mocked in the first by DJ, and he tends to have his ear to most NFL team’s pulse. Onwuzuriki’s calling card is his length and athleticism, which combined with his explosiveness and motor results in him just running over people at times. He does need to improve his power and add more consistently, but the addition of Onwuzurike could make the Packers defensive line a force as good as the Steelers DL.
30 - Buffalo Bills - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - The Bills just need playmakers especially in the run game, and Etienne is one of the best pure playmakers in the class. He’s an explosive threat who must be addressed at all times, or else he could break free and gash the defensive for serious yardage. His acceleration and contact balance make him a problem to tackle, and with supposed 4.3 speed, defenders won't be able to catch him once he gets into open space. He’s no slouch in the pass game either, putting up solid production at Clemson and flashing the ability to run a few option routes. The Bills already have their Jim Kelly and Andre Reed in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Time to add the Thurman Thomas of the trio, and turn Buffalo into an offense that can toe to toe with the Chiefs.
31 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan - Donovan Smith is very likely gone this year, meaning that Tampa would have a hole at one of the tackle spots opposite of Wirfs. No matter if they move Wirfs to LT or keep him at RT, Mayfield would be a great get opposite of him. Mayfield’s a dependable run blocker who has good feet, and although he's not finished just yet, if Tampa can utilize his athletic gifts to the fullest, he’d be a great compliment to their current franchise OT.
32 - Kansas City Chiefs - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington - Joe Tryon’s another player who is apparently well regarded according to DJ. He’s shown flashes of being a great pass rusher, but he’s really still a WIP in most areas, especially as a run defender. However, he does fit the mold of what the Chiefs want in their pass rushers, standing at 6’5 262. Kansas City does need the help on the EDGE, and they can afford to take a gamble here, considering the Mahomes led offense should be able to easily cover up any defensive deficiencies for the next few years.

Jan. 7 Daily HUT Content - What is new?

Mock Draft 1.0, 4 QBs go in the top 5 (Write-Ups under Picks, has trades.)

Hey everyone! This is my Mock Draft I did because I am a ridiculously bored bastard in the middle of a lull in my classes schedule. Let me know your thoughts! Trades are included in this, and the list of them can be found at the bottom.

Jaguars- Trevor Lawrence, QB

I really don’t have to explain this pick. He is far and away the most valuable pick in this draft and the Jaguars would be insane not to lock this pick in months in advance.

Jets- Justin Fields, QB

The first real decision of the draft comes from the Jets, where they decide to move on from Sam Darnold and draft an accomplished player in Justin Fields. On top of his clear physical talents and admiral skills at the QB position, the Jets choose him over Zach Wilson for culture reasons. Fields has faced high pressure situations his entire career and rebounded admirably from losing out in a QB competition, and for a team with a long history of losing he is a great piece to help turn the culture around.
3.Dolphins (Via HOU)- Penei Sewell, OT
The Dolphins can choose between getting a franchise left tackle and one of Tua’s old wide receivers, and ultimately they choose to protect their investment in a young QB. Sewell is a monster of an O-lineman and I would be shocked to see a team go with anything else, especially when the QB is one with the injury history of Tua.
4.49ers (Via ATL)- Zach Wilson, QB
The 49ers get aggressive and move up 8 slots in the draft, allowing them to select a QB who has been much more impressive than Jimmy G. He has outright said he thinks he would be a good fit in the 49ers scheme, and I expect Shannahan is thinking the same thing. The Falcons also gained extra picks to further rebuild their defense with, which is a priority for them in this mock.

Panthers (Via CIN)- Trey Lance, QB

Matt Rhule continues his rebuild of the Panthers by adding a dynamic dual threat quarterback who can eventually take the job over from Teddy Bridgewater. Trey Lance still needs to be developed as a passer, but I am confident with the weapons he would have in Carolina if he can do it anywhere it is there and Matt Rhule knows that as well.

Eagles- Devonta Smith, WR

The Eagles (and more specifically Howie Roseman) are under heavy fire from the media and fans, and are also in desperate need of help at the WR position. This leads them to picking a talented player that everyone already loves, and I suspect they will be rewarded for this decision. They get a technician to support Jalen Hurts / Carson Wentz, and if either of those guys are the answer they have to be able to get it done with a weapon as electric as Smith.

Lions- Micah Parsons, LB

Sorry Lions fans, the appropriate way to describe your needs is that you need help at every position. The Lions use this pick to go defensive BPA, which leads to them selecting Micah Parsons to be the centerpiece of their defense. Combined with Jeff Okudah, the Lions continue building a good young defensive core to support aging (and potentially traded) QB Matthew Stafford.

Bengals (Via CAR)- Christian Darrisaw, OT

Joe Burrow is going to reward the Bengals for their tank if they build around him, and starting Bobby Hart at RT is not building around him. The team selects the best OT left on the board at this point in order to try and keep their young QB upright and protect their investment in him. I also personally don’t buy the argument that the Bengals need another #1 receiver, as I believe in both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, thus passing on a better player in Ja’Marr Chase to fill a position of need.

Broncos- Patrick Surtain II, CB

The Broncos need a CB, and they go and get a proven SEC defender with a pedigree of performing against the best wideouts he faced. Surtain can be an anchor in the secondary to allow the edge rushing talents of this team to have the time needed to get home. This defense with some help could be a nightmare for opposing teams, and this furthers that goal.

Cowboys- Caleb Farley, CB

The Boys need help in the secondary, and especially considering the player they are about to pass to a division rival it makes the selection of the second best CB in the class in Caleb Farley a no brainer. This bit of aid may not fix a struggling Cowboys defense, but it will certainly help stem the bleeding.

Giants- Ja’Marr Chase, WR

The steal of the mock goes to Dave Gettleman at the 11th pick. After promising to get Daniel Jones weapons, he gets him an absolute monster of a receiver to supplement a receiving core that struggled mightily in 2020. With a monstrous deep threat in tow, Daniel Jones will have no excuse but to prove it in 2021.

Falcons- Kwity Paye, EDGE

The Falcons need help at all three levels of their defense, and they begin this retool with the draft of physical freak Kwity Paye. Paye is a bit of a developmental prospect, but the Falcons need help alongside Grady Jarrett and they find a promising young Edge Rusher in Kwity Paye to solve that.

Chargers- Rashawn Slater, OT

After Justin Herbert’s monster rookie season, one thing became quickly apparent: the Chargers needed to fix their offensive line to prevent Herbert from joining a dishonorable list of names including Joe Burrow and RGIII. They get this by getting a great OT prospect in Slater who can help solidify the line and keep a great QB upright.

Vikings- Wyatt Davis, IOL

Kirk Cousins is not a bad quarterback, but he also isn’t going to win on his own. He has a great set of weapons to showcase in Thielen, Jefferson, and Cook. Now the failure comes in that he can’t stay upright long enough to use these weapons properly. Adding a piece for Cousins to pass behind and Cook to run behind makes this offense more dynamic as a whole, and the top interior lineman comes off the board to help this issue.

Patriots- Jaylen Waddle, WR

The Patriots WR core was… bad. An already struggling WR core lost their best player in Edelman, Tom Brady, and their WR Coach in Joe Judge and the floor fell out from under an already mediocre group. They get a dynamic separator to serve as their #1, and will aim to address this issue again later on in the draft.

Cardinals- Kyle Pitts, TE

Kyler Murray is a great QB and the Cardinals have continuously invested in his success. That being said, he only has one elite target and when Hopkins can’t beat his double teams, the offense struggles. This situation is solved by obtaining a massive upgrade at TE in Kyle Pitts. This weapon can help continue to push Murray above and beyond in a powerhouse of a division.

Raiders- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB

Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and the WR corp of the Broncos all pose a brutal challenge for a defense that already is struggling mightily. They begin to rectify this by getting a versatile athlete at LB to try and right the ship. Owusu-Koramoah is not the entire answer, but he is a good bet to be an effective NFL LB, and god only knows how badly the Raiders need one of those.

Dolphins- Rashod Bateman, WR

The Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa as their QB of the future, and now they need to tailor his weapons to what he is good at. He clearly does not trust his WRs, and for that reason the Dolphins bring in a fresh new face to try and work with the young QB. Tua has it in him, and Bateman can help him unlock the parts of his game he hasn’t yet showcased in the NFL.

Football Team- Mac Jones, QB

I’m going to level with all of you: I don’t really like Mac Jones all that much. In my opinion he has too low of a ceiling for me to like selecting him this early. That being said, the WFT has shown an ability to make game managers succeed: and I think they’ll be desperate enough for a QB that they’ll take their chances that Jones is more Alex Smith than AJ McCarron.

Bears- Samuel Cosmi, OT

The Bears are likely to lose Allen Robinson, and with that I think they need to focus on their best offensive weapon left in David Montgomery. Getting an absolute monster of a man to man at a tackle position can help possibly make the Bears an elite rushing team if they continue to build along this path.

Colts- Alex Leatherwood, OT

The retirement of Constanzo makes this pick a bit of a no-brainer. The Colts need a LT, and they get one in Leatherwood. Ballard and Reich get to keep rolling with their offense behind a prospect that I like quite a bit for them. I could also see the argument to select an Edge here, but given this franchise's history with not protecting their QB I would much rather have another O-Lineman.

Titans- Gregory Rousseau, Edge

Vrabel and the titans like physical freaks, and a freak they get in Greg Rousseau. His elite athleticism is that of a top five edge rusher, but he slips down as teams fear his floor is insanely low. The Titans roll the dice to try and save a pass rush that was out sacked by the Giants interior lineman in 2020, and gamble that this will pay off.

Jets- Jaycee Horn, CB

Lamar Jackson is an elite QB and any team would be happy to have him, Lamar Jackson on the other hand has no business starting at CB on an NFL team. The Jets rectify this issue by selecting an intriguing CB prospect in Horn. I personally don’t really know what I think of Horn quite yet, but I know he deserves to go in the first and that the Jets would be happy to have him.

Steelers- Najee Harris, RB

Najee Harris is a patient running back who is great at finding the holes in the defense who supplements that style with a great ability to contribute in the passing game. Now when have the Steelers ever utilized a back like that effectively? Joke aside, Harris is a great talent and as I think Ben gives it one more year this is the weapon they bring in to fix their struggling rushing attack.

Jaguars- Jaelan Phillips, EDGE

The Jaguars will look at how the WFT has rebuilt and try to emulate that by getting an elite edge rushing pair of their own. Enter Jaelan Phillips, one of my favorite gems of this class. He is far from a guaranteed prospect, but I love his ability as a pass rusher and when placed opposite Josh Allen I see a foundation of a playoff-caliber defense if Phillips translates to the next level.

Browns- Joseph Ossai, EDGE

The Browns will likely lose Olivier Vernon this offseason, and replacing him would be a wise move to not have that defense totally fall into disarray. Ossai has the potential to be an effective edge rusher in the NFL, and the Browns should take a chance on him in order to make sure that they can replicate the pass rush that even kind of makes that defense respectable.

Buccaneers- Christian Barmore, DL

Christian Barmore is a talented player, and he is being drafted to help fill big shoes. The Bucs pass rush is losing its top man in Shaw Barrett this offseason, and Christian Barmore can help solidify the front 7. As the first DL off the board, he can potentially help support a bucs pass rush and add another weapon to the Bucs arsenal they have effectively used to control the rushing attack of other teams.

Ravens- Rondale Moore, WR

The Ravens are… lacking at the WR position, and for that reason they select the best WR left on the board. Rondale Moore brings a good weapon for Lamar Jackson to throw to, and support the talented young QBs development as a passer.

Saints- Zaven Collins, LB

The Saints are likely to lose Drew Brees this offseason, but unfortunately I think they won’t be able to get a QB that can fully fill his shoes. So instead of trying to recapture the magic of that short passing attack they support the new QB, whoever it is, by adding a versatile defensive weapon that can make a dangerous Saints defense even more of a nightmare. His prowess as a blitzer is appealing to Payton, and I think that while Collins could bust out his athletic traits plus his versatility will draw Payton in.

Bills- Azeez Ojulari, EDGE

The Bills have a hell of an offense nowadays, but the once elite defense is in need of a little bit of support in order to reclaim what they were in 2019. This comes by trying to increase the pass rush of the team, as it allows the safeties and White to work their magic and lock down the passing game. Ojulari is not my personal favorite prospect, but he has talent and I think McDermott would be wise to take a shot on him.

Packers- Chris Olave, WR

Aaron Rodgers is coming off an MVP campaign, and that is without having a real WR2. The Packers decide to add strength to an already terrifying passing game by adding one of the best route runners in the class. He may not transform into an elite #1 option, but Olave is a great target for the Pack to try and further an already terrifyingly powerful offense.

Chiefs- Alijah Vera-Tucker, IOL

Alijah Vera-Tucker is a steady player that has the potential to be a contributor at the guard slot, and the projected superbowl champions struggled up the middle badly. Patrick Mahomes is everything to this franchise, and using yet another 1st round pick to protect him would be a wise decision.

Jaguars- Jalen Mayfield, OT

The Jaguars learn from the Bengals mistakes and immediately make moves to shore up a mediocre O-Line that could get their new franchise QB seriously injured. They do this by bringing in a solid OT prospect to try and offer Lawrence protection from good edge rushers. While not a perfect OT prospect, Mayfield is a slam-dunk pick for a team looking to protect their new QB.

Jets- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR

I LOVE Amon-Ra. He will be a steal in this draft, and only to meet rule #1 will I qualify that he does still have some bust potential. By drafting St. Brown, the new QB on the block in Fields for the Jets gets a weapon to grow with. This strategy has worked in recent years (Burrow-Higgins, Jones-Slayton), and the Jets bring in a great weapon to try and replicate this strategy.

Falcons- Dylan Moses, LB

As I said earlier, the Falcons need help at every level of their defense. That being said, with Deion Jones already in the linebacking corp they can afford to make a risky decision and draft a dominant athlete who has unfortunately underperformed in his last season in college. This pick is a high risk / high reward decision, but the Falcons need to roll the dice if they want to be relevant again any time soon.

Dolphins- Travis Etienne, RB

The Dolphins continue to commit to rebuilding their team to fit the skillset of Tua Tagovailoa, and part of that plan includes obtaining a much better running game than the one they currently have. Etienne isn’t a perfect prospect, but what he brings is a pedigree of success to the Dolphins that would certainly be appealing to Flores. Etienne, Sewell, and Bateman could bring a spark to an offense that desperately needs one.

Eagles- Nick Bolton, LB

The Eagles are bad, but the Linebacking corp needs extra attention. For this reason they take the best Linebacker left on the board in Nick Bolton. He won’t solve all of this defenses problems as they are likely to lose their best player in Brandon Graham, but maybe he can stem the bleeding of a mediocre defense that is only getting worse.

Bengals- Terrace Marshall Jr., WR

While earlier I said I didn’t believe the Bengals needed an elite #1 wideout, they can definitely afford to go and get another decent one. This is where Marshall Jr. comes in, the big man is a college teammate of Joe Burrow’s, and could be a contributor in the red zone. While I personally don’t expect him to be the best WR in this class, his size makes him someone you can’t take your eyes off of, which helps the already great other members of the Bengals skill positions.

Bengals (Via ATL)- Creed Humphrey, IOL

The Bengals continue to rebuild the O-Line to protect their investment in Joe Burrow by adding a good interior lineman to shore up a weak point on the team. Humphrey is also a big man and can contribute heavily to the rushing attack leveled by Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon. This may not be the sexiest draft for the Bengals, but they do what they have to do to maximize their investment in Joe Burrow.

Broncos- Daviyon Nixon, DL

The Broncos continue to invest in their defense by adding an interior DL that can work alongside Chubb, Miller, and Casey to create an absolute monster of a pass rush. Nixon is not a slam dunk pick, especially because the Broncos are drafting to add to an existing strength of theirs, but if they want to survive vs. the Elite deep passers in the AFCW, they need to be able to get to the QB quickly. For that basic reason, they invest heavily in their defense in the early round of this draft.

Lions- Kyle Trask, QB

If not this offseason, then sometime soon Matthew Stafford’s time in Detroit is coming to an end. The Lions get another QB through the door to backup the aging Stafford for the short term while he develops into hopefully the franchise guy in Detroit. Lord only knows they need one after the only thing keeping that team from drowning in Stafford is gone.

Patriots (Via NYG)- Pat Friermuth, TE

Bill Bellichek loves his tight ends, and this time he pulls off a trade with the Giants to leapfrog them and Jaguars to select the player aptly dubbed “Baby Gronk”. Friermuth is not a perfect prospect, some injury concerns are present, but his talents are impressive in every phase of the game and the Patriots should kill to have a weapon like this. The Giants do this to supplement a move they make later on in this mock.

Falcons (Via SF)- Trevon Moehrig-Woodard, S

For one last time, the Falcons need help at every level of the defense and this time they get a safety to work the secondary of this defense. Moehrig is an impressive player to me, and I think he has a chance to outperform his draft stock and be an anchor for a struggling Falcons secondary.

Cowboys- Jay Tufele, DL

The Cowboys are egregious up the middle of their defense. It is an absolute embarrassment to watch, and for that reason they make a pick that is far from sexy in selecting Tufele. Tufele is a talented player who I believe could help remove the sad reality that RBs were able to rush all over the Cowboys defensive line for much of the year. This pick is not the sexy kind that Jerry Jones loves to make, but he needs to bite the bullet and select someone to help their struggling run defense.

Jaguars- Eric Stokes, CB

The Jaguars miss Jalen Ramsey patrolling their secondary, but now they need to replace him with a new set of DBs that can support the rebuilt edge rush of this defense. This is where Eric Stokes comes in, an SEC proven defender which may appeal to a team that needs help in the secondary.

Giants (Via NE)- Jayson Oweh, EDGE

The G-Men thank their lucky stars and select the second player of their draft that has slipped down the draft board in Jayson Oweh. The pass rusher benefited in the past from working alongside Micah Parsons, but his talents stood out in their own right this year on an otherwise disappointing Penn State defense without Micah Parsons. While I personally favor Basham as a pass rusher, Oweh is a great fit for the giants 3-4 disguise scheme and New York is lucky to have him more often than not.

Chargers- Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE

An underrated part of what made the Browns good this year was their ability to jar the ball loose and force turnovers, allowing the offense to run the score up with an otherwise mediocre defense. With Melvin Ingram likely gone, the Chargers aim to replicate the Browns in that way and select Basham Jr. The Edge Rusher out of Wake Forest is an intriguing process, but to me his ability to force fumbles is a significant boon that should draw in the Chargers and their high power offense that scores more often than not when they have the ball. Turnovers win games, and the Chargers draft Basham for his ability to force them coming off the edge opposite Bosa.

Raiders- Shaun Wade, CB

The Raiders take a chance on Shaun Wade who has regressed in a major way when he was pushed to the outside on the Buckeye defense this year. He still has the desirable physical traits, including the size and speed to bully slot receivers around the league and be effective in zone coverage against large receivers and TEs. He is a developmental prospect, but at his best he is a high-end talent, and the Raiders defense desperately needs one of those.

Cardinals- Patrick Jones II, EDGE

The Cardinals defense has a great pass rusher in Chandler Jones, but he went down this year and the team suffered for it. While Haason Reddick stepped up for them, he is headed for free agency. The Cardinals bring in a good edge rusher in Patrick Jones out of Pitt to try and make sure that the pass rushing burden doesn’t fully fall on one person like it has the past two years under Kingsbury. If Jones pans out, the Cards may be able to dominate the difficult NFCW and that is why they’ll try to beef up their pass rush.

Dolphins- Trey Smith, IOL

In case you haven’t figured it out by now, I like the idea of rebuilding the Dolphins offense to match the already good defense they have built. They bring in Trey Smith to compete for an IOL job which he will likely win to form a young core of Smith and Sewell on that O-Line. The idea of this draft being to give Tua a new weapon and a good run game to lean on, and if he can’t make the most of it then the next QB will have a great situation to walk into.

Football Team- Kadarius Toney, WR

One of my favorite prospects goes to one of my least favorite teams. As a Giants fan living in DC, I would be absolutely crushed if this happens but ultimately I think it makes too much sense. Toney is a great weapon in terms of breaking tackles, joining an already slippery Washington offense built around Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin for Mac Jones to pilot. While he is far from a complete player, Toney is a fun weapon that I believe Meshes well with Mac Jones and what Rivera is trying to build in Washington, and for that reason he is a great pick at 51st overall in the draft.

Bears- Walker Little, OT

The Bears draft another monster OT to work opposite of Cosmi. Walker Little can support the plan I have proposed for the Bears draft to try and become a good rushing attack, and he can become an NFL caliber pass blocker in my opinion. The Bears need a new direction, and being a team that punches people in the mouth in the trenches is one that they can certainly achieve with these two picks.

Titans- Marvin Wilson, DL

The Titans need a lot of help rushing the passer, and they take another pass rusher who has shown flashes of being a great NFL caliber talent. Wilson at the interior position for the Seminoles shows pass rushing talent, but his floors have been unfortunately low. The hope for the Titans is that he and Rousseau can develop into a great interior / exterior edge rushing tandem that may save a struggling pass rush on an otherwise playoff caliber team.

Colts- Joe Tryon, EDGE

The Colts are, in my opinion, one of the best coached teams in the NFL, and they know that as well. For this reason they take an intriguing project edge rusher in Joe Tryon. He has nearly every physical trait you look for in an elite NFL pass rusher, while also having very few of the desired techniques of one. The Colts take a risk and pick him, trusting that over the next few years they can unlock his potential.

Steelers- Liam Eichenberg, OT

The starting OT of the Steelers in Zach Banner ultimately went down with a season ending injury early in the 2020 season while the rest of the O-Line only gets older, and for this reason they inject a rookie into the group. Eichenberg is a promising prospect, and I believe that the Steelers are a good place to utilize his talents.

Seahawks- Josh Myers, IOL

Not my favorite pick of the draft, but the Steelers need help up the middle of the trenches and if they intend to commit to running the ball more they need it double. Myers is reached for a bit in order to supplement this need, and his help both in the run game and passing attack will surely be appreciated by Seahawks HC Pete Caroll.

Giants (Via LAR)- Brevin Jordan, TE

Using their third round pick and some of the assets acquired from the patriots trade the Giants move back up into the first round to select a TE of their own. The Rams need to recoup picks from their litany of trades over the past few years, and they gain more mid round picks to supply depth to their otherwise top-heavy team. The Giants take a complete TE in Brevin Jordan, drawn in by the fact that he won’t be a liability in every way the same way Evan Engram was. At the very least, he likely won’t cause three separate interceptions by volleyball setting the ball into the air for the defense to catch.

Buccaneers- Jevon Holland, S

The Bucs were exposed this year when Tyreek Hill dropped 200 yards on them in a half, and as more speedster wideouts enter the league they may want to fortify the help they afford their CBs over the top. In comes Jevon Holland, a player who is just solid, I don’t view him as particularly elite but he is almost certainly going to be a good role player for the Bucs. The Bucs have their defensive playmakers in the front 7, now they just need the help up over top to let the guys up front do their work.

Ravens- Quincy Roche, EDGE

The Ravens are likely to lose Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue this offseason, and they try to solve this issue by reaching for the Miami product to support their weak edge group. It is just a solid, respectable pick to make.

Browns- Chazz Surrat, LB

The Browns need some help in the back 7, but a lot of it for the secondary will come off IR. This means another linebacker could help improve this defense, and for that reason they select the best LB left on the board in Chazz Surrat.

Saints- Levi Onwuzerike, DL

The Saints defensive leader in Cameron Jordan is only getting older, and now is the time to start finding him help and eventually, his replacement on that DL. This is where the talented Onwuzerike is drafted, as he is a flawed prospect that can learn from Jordan and eventually grow into the role of the alpha on this defensive front.

Bills- Tyson Campbell, CB

The Josh Norman experiment was… passable for the Buffalo Bills. That being said he is 33 and that secondary is already very expensive. With a pricy Josh Allen extension on the horizon, getting a good cheap CB is a smart idea for the Bills. This is why they use their second round pick to select Tyson Campbell.

Packers- Jalen Twyman, DL

It is no secret at this point that the Packers weakness is their run defense. By adding another player onto the interior defensive line they can begin to get their feet under them. This is the reason they select the Pitt product to develop and bulk up next to Kenny Clark.

Chiefs- Asante Samuel Jr., CB

The Chiefs offense is… expensive to maintain. For this reason the secondary is a bit of a revolving door for this team. With most of their starting CBs leaving this offseason, they could use a young controllable piece to develop in Spags defense. Enter Asante Samuel Jr., who gets picked to fill just that role.
Trades:

Pick 4 for Pick 12, 43, and future assets (Falcons and 49ers)
Pick 5 for Pick 8, 39, and future assets (Bengals and Panthers)
Pick 57 for 3rd Round Pick + future assets (Rams and Giants)
Pick 43 for pick 46 and future assets (Giants and Patriots)

Thanks for reading! Please leave your thoughts/criticisms below. I would love to talk about them!

Here's an in-depth breakdown of Super Bowl LV:

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!

Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.

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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player

Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.

For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player

Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.

Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.

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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.

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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.

I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.

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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.

Examining the first matchup:

Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:

When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.

https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player

Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.

What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:

For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.

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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.

X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.

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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.

Prediction:

On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.

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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!

First Round Mock with Trades

Note: I'm including trades in this mock, but since it's only one round, I'm not going to get too much into detail about compensation outside of 1st round picks and players. Most trades that happen in reality tend to swap some later round picks as well, often going both ways; go ahead and assume some of that will be happening where it makes sense, but I won't be going through all of the draft value stuff to work out those specific numbers. I'm also not making firm assumptions about free agency, but I'll mention situations that I think are most likely and relevant, so forgive me if I'm a bit inconsistent about where free agents come into play and where they don't.

Important free agency / trade notes:

Watson traded to the Jets, Darnold to Texans, trade explained in mock.
Garoppolo to the Colts for a day 2 pick and some change.
Minshew to SF for a mid-round pick.
Cousins stays in Minnesota.
Ryan stays in Atlanta.
Winston to the Bears as a free agent.
Trubisky to the Patriots as a free agent.

1) JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
This pick doesn't need much explanation. He's the best QB prospect we've seen since Luck, he's been pretty much locked in as #1 overall since his freshman year, and the Jags are taking him.
2) NYJ > HOU - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Trade: Texans trade Deshaun Watson to Jets for #2, #23, a future 1st round pick, and Sam Darnold.
There it is, Watson's going to New York. Watson wants out, the Texans don't want to trade him, but I think Watson will call their bluff and sit out the season if they don't let him go. The Texans are a dumpster fire, but they know they're better off getting assets in return for Watson than letting him quit because they wanted to look tough. The Jets get the new face of their franchise for a pretty fair price -- Miami is the other likely trade partner IMO and I think they're content to stick with Tua and not get stuck in a bidding war, so the price for NYJ might not actually be as high as people may expect (it's important to remember, when comparing this to the Stafford trade, the Rams paid extra to offload Goff's contract).
Now, onto the pick. I actually have Zach Wilson as QB2 on my board, but with Darnold joining, the Texans can take the guy that I think has an edge in terms of athleticism. David Culley is coming from Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, and I could see him leaning towards the running threat in this scenario. Plus, if Jack Easterby is still pulling the strings, Fields being outspoken about his religious faith might be enough of an edge over Wilson (who despite going to BYU, has never really said much about his beliefs). I know that sounds crazy, but the Texans are crazy right now, and I'm just a guy eating popcorn waiting to see what happens.
3) MIA > CAR - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
Trade: Dolphins trade #3 to Panthers for #8 and a future 1st.
Another trade breaks, and another QB goes. The Dolphins are in a really interesting spot at #3 overall. They didn't make a blockbuster move for Watson, and they'll build around Tua. Tua wasn't anything amazing as a rookie, but he certainly didn't look bad; expectations for rookie QB's have gotten a bit out of hand lately. Miami have their choice of any non-QB in the draft, and they'll be looking hard at Sewell here, as well as the receivers. But they also aren't desperate for OL help, and there's a ton of WR talent in this draft, so when Carolina offers a 1st round pick for a 5 spot drop, that's a pretty good deal. On Carolina's side, they're more than happy to jump Atlanta and screw their division rivals out of an excellent QB prospect. The Falcons are probably furious with this trade, but they weren't willing to overpay to move up one spot when they do still have Matt Ryan in at least the short term. The Panthers need a QB sooner rather than later, and a 1st rounder next year is a pretty fair price for what may be a franchise QB.
Zach Wilson is my QB2 in this draft. He's got the arm, the smarts, and the ability to move around and extend plays and make things happen. He reminds me a lot of Baker Mayfield, that's something Rhule can be excited about. Joe Brady might not be in Carolina for long, but he'll have fun with a guy like Wilson.
4) ATL - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
The Falcons miss out on the elite QB prospects, and with maybe the best WR corps in the NFL, their decision isn't too difficult here. They could reach a bit for the top CB or EDGE in the draft, but none of those guys are quite the blue-chip prospect that Sewell is. Sewell is probably, at worst, the 3rd or 4th best player in the draft, and could well be the best of them all. The Falcons have a reliable LT in Jake Matthews, but Sewell can come in as an immediate starter at either LG or RT in place of Carpenter or McGary.
5) CIN - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The Bengals are sad to miss out on Sewell, but they can't be too sad when they land Chase. After a year of QB shuffling at LSU, opting out of the 2020 season might actually have been more protective of Chase's draft stock than harmful. Yes, DeVonta Smith stole the spotlight and skyrocketed up draft boards to challenge Chase for the WR1 spot, but Chase has about 30 pounds on Smith and might be a safer bet in terms of durability. It also gives the Bengals the chance to reunite Joe Burrow with his favorite college target.
6) PHI - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
And Smith wasn't far behind. The Eagles are in desperate need of WR help. They took Reagor in the late 1st round last year, but he didn't contribute much after missing some time with injury, and Smith is too good to pass up. They've got to find some way to help Carson Wentz regain some confidence in hopes of being at least a decent starter again, and if they have to turn to Hurts, he's familiar with Smith from his time at Bama.
7) DET - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
I honestly don't like mocking big runs like this. 3 QB's in a row in the top 3, and then 3 WR's in a row after that. It doesn't sound all that realistic, and I'm well aware that probably none of what I predict will come true (aside from Lawrence). But this pick makes too much sense. The Lions shipped out Stafford and got Goff and picks in return, and they're entering what seems to be a full rebuild. I don't think there's any way Kenny Golladay sticks around. Basically all of their WR's are free agents this year. They need to give Goff something to work with if they roll with him, and I don't think they gamble on Trey Lance at this spot. Waddle missed most of this season, but he was being hyped up as the Bama star WR going into 2020 for a reason. He's the last of the real blue-chip elite WR talents in a very strong WR class, and that's hard to pass up.
8) CAR > MIA - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
The Dolphins miss out on an elite WR. That stings. But they do have another 1st round pick and this draft class is pretty stacked. They might not be getting Jaylen Waddle, but there are some other quality 1st round talents that should be available later. At this spot, they give Brian Flores the best LB in the class. Parsons is an interesting prospect. He's a freak athlete, fairly versatile, and despite some character concerns, he could be a leader on this defense for years. He can come in as an immediate replacement for Elandon Roberts and learn from Kyle Van Noy, possibly shifting between ILB and SLB.
9) DEN - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU
While the Lions weren't ready to gamble on Lance at 7, the Broncos pounce on him at 9. Drew Lock isn't the worst QB in the world, but in a division with Mahomes and Herbert (and Carr isn't a slouch, either), the Broncos have to find a talented QB if they want to have any hope of competing. Trey Lance is a pretty unique prospect, coming from an FCS school with only 1 year of starting experience and not playing in 2020 (outside of a hastily thrown-together showcase game that really isn't much to judge). He's an incredible athlete with a ton of upside, and he threw ZERO interceptions in his one season as a starter. Yes, the fact that he played in the FCS at one of the most dominant programs in college football history can't be ignored, but the talent is pretty obvious. This might be Elway's last chance to right the ship at QB, so you have to imagine they'll be all-in on giving Lance all of the support they can.
10) DAL - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys could go a few different ways here -- Slater or Darrisaw at OT, Pitts at TE, Paye or Rousseau on the edge, but CB is the most glaring need on this team, and Surtain looks like the complete package. The Cowboys drafted Trevon Diggs out of Bama last year, and he had an up and down season. Awuzie could be on his way out, and they desperately need someone that can take over the CB1 role and take some of the pressure off of Diggs. Surtain looks like he can be an NFL CB1, and he'll link up with an old teammate in Dallas.
11) NYG - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The Giants need help in a lot of areas, but if they're going to stick with Daniel Jones for another year, he needs all the help he can get. It's too early here to reach for a WR, but the Giants need a reliable pass catcher. Sterling Shepard is a decent option, but he's not exactly a game changer. Evan Engram, despite somehow making the pro bowl this year, is not a good TE. He's fast, but he can't catch a cold. Enter Kyle Pitts. Pitts is everything that Engram was supposed to be, except he can catch the ball. He can play TE, he can split out wide, and he can run some gadget plays. Whatever it is, he's probably better at it than most anyone else on the roster.
12) SF - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
First things first, the QB trade. This pick wasn't involved, but I can't really let it go unaddressed. The 49ers part ways with Garoppolo, sending him to Indy for a day 2 pick (either a 2nd rounder, or a 3rd and another pick, whatever). Then they send a mid-round pick (I'd think probably a 4th) to Jacksonville for Minshew. So Gardner Minshew will be the presumed starter for 2021, competing with Mullens for the job.
The top 4 QB's are gone and the 49ers don't want to reach for Mac Jones here. Farley is the top CB on a lot of boards. I don't think he's quite as good as Surtain right now, but he's got a ton of potential to be great. The 49ers already don't have the greatest CB corps, and they could be losing Sherman and Verrett to free agency, without much left behind to take over.
13) LAC - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
This one's pretty simple. Chargers have found their franchise QB in Herbert, now they need to protect him. Their OL is... not great. Slater is a very solid OL prospect. He was an amazing LT at Northwestern (watch him vs Chase Young when they played Ohio State), and any teams with concerns about his measurables for a tackle can slot him in at LG and expect a quality starter.
14) MIN - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
The Vikings probably would have preferred Slater here, but Darrisaw is still a solid OL prospect. I considered going with Vera-Tucker as more of a true OG, but the value just isn't there in my eyes. There's some solid IOL talent available later, and a good tackle is hard to come by.
15) NE > LV - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
Trade: Raiders trade #17 and later picks to Patriots for #15.*
Shocker, the Patriots trade down. After signing Mitchell Trubisky back to be the presumed starting QB, they trade down from #15 to gain some draft caiptal. The Raiders make a small jump to get ahead of the Cardinals and take the top EDGE on their board. Rousseau may be raw, but he's a hell of an athlete, and the upside is too much for Mayock and Gruden to pass up. It's like the Saints' Davenport trade a few years back, just way less expensive.
16) ARI - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Cardinals make a pretty simple pick here. They need real CB help, and Horn is the top CB on the board. I love Jaycee Horn as a prospect. I actually have him as the 1b to Surtain's 1a on my board. He's an absolute ballhawk, and while he's a little handsy in coverage, that can be coached.
17) LV > NE - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
I know the Pats don't do well with 1st round WR's, but they don't have many better options. The lack of offensive weapons clearly played at least some part in Brady's departure. If the Patriots want to be contenders again, they need to be able to score points, and Garoppolo needs receivers that are better than N'Keal Harry and the corpse of Julian Edelman. Marshall is a tall WR that can play on the outside, in the slot, and move around to create mismatches. He should provide a reliable target for Jimmy and the new-look Pats.
18) MIA - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Dolphins passed on elite WR's in the top 5, but they'll take the top WR available here to give Tua some help. Bateman isn't a burner, but he's god decent size and he's a great route-runner, so he should be able to create some separation and give Tua go-to option.
19) WAS - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The 5th QB goes. I know Mac Jones is a bit of a controversial prospect. He had all the talent in the world at Bama, and he doesn't exactly stand out as a huge talent compared to guys like Fields and Wilson. But he's proven to be a poised, accurate passer with a good head on his shoulders. I don't see him getting past Washington. I think Jones can be successful NFL QB in the right situation. Is WFT the right situation? I'm not sure. But I think Rivera will like what he sees, and Alex Smith could be the perfect mentor for him.
20) CHI - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Bears bring in Winston as a free agent in hopes of solving their eternal QB problem. If nothing else, he's got the arm to sling it downfield in the windy city. He was the best option available (really the only free agent worth going after as a possible starter), and they'll keep Foles for another year to compete with him. The least they could do is beef up the OL. Eichenberg is a pro-ready LT that the Bears can slot in from day 1.
21) IND - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
With Garoppolo coming in at QB, the Colts can turn their attention elsewhere. With needs at OL and WR, it's not the easiest decision, but Paye falling right into their laps is too much to pass up. Paye is the #1 EDGE on a lot of boards, so a fall to 21 is probably not likely. The Colts don't mind. They get to snatch him away from the Titans, too.
22) TEN - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
Nixon burst onto the scene this year at Iowa as a pass-rushing 3T. Tennessee needs help all over the DL, and Nixon is a nice piece to start with. He might need some time get up to NFL speed, but he showed massive production and the Titans will hope for more.
23) NYJ > HOU - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
The Texans got their QB in Fields, now they need to support him. Fuller is likely gone, Cooks is likely gone this year or next, and that would leave Keke Coutee as the next best WR on the roster. Moore does not have the size of a WR1. He'll work mostly out of the slot and on gadget plays. But he's electric. He could bring life to an offense that will be rebuilding from the ground up. Anything to try to win back some fans.
24) PIT - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
With Villanueva likely leaving in free agency, the Steelers take the top OT on the board as an immediate replacement. Cosmi might end up slotting in at RT, as the Steelers might like Okorafor more on the left.
25) JAX - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
The Jags will take a hard look at going OL here to protect Trevor Lawrence, but they can't afford not to make a move in the secondary. Stokes can be a playmaker at CB.
26) CLE - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Collins seems to go to the Browns in pretty much every mock, but it makes too much sense for me to go another direction. He can do it all. He's a great run stopper, he excels rushing the passer, and he's not totally helpless in coverage, either. He'll be a nice defensive piece in a pretty talented Browns team.
27) BAL - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC
The Ravens look hard at EDGE here, but Vera-Tucker is one of the top talents available, and they need help on the OL. He'll slot into the RG spot, and hopefully be playing next to Orlando Brown, though I think Brown could be on his way out soon.
28) NO - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Saints are going to look very different next year. Brees is all but officially retired, and we'll likely see a lot of roster turnover in order to get under the cap. The most obvious move that will be made is the release of OLB Kwon Alexander. Luckily, Owusu-Koramoah has just the skillset to come in and take on that coverage LB role.
29) GB - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
The Packers have a big need at CB, but the value just doesn't line up there for me. They could also use a good coverage-savvy LB, and Nick Bolton fits that bill.
30) BUF - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
Not a flashy pick, but the Bills live and die with Josh Allen. An upgrade at guard should help Allen live.
31) TB - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas
The Bucs really don't have too many glaring needs, so this pick comes down to BPA on their shortlist. For me, this comes down to Ossai and Jalen Mayfield. When in doubt, take the pass rusher. Ossai should fit nicely as a 3-4 OLB in Tampa. Both Barrett and Pierre-Paul are free agents this year, and they won't keep both.
32) KC - Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
KC is a simple pick. You got Mahomes? Protect Mahomes. Mayfield can play tackle, or move into guard if needed. He's the best OL on the board, and the last pick of round one.

So, tell me why I'm wrong, why I'm right for the wrong reasons, and why I'm an idiot in general.

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The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more. The Chiefs offense led the NFL in yards per game (415.8) during the regular season. They outgained Tampa Bay, 350–340, though many of those yards were gained in garbage time. But, this isn’t your traditional sports scoreboard. This is a gambling scoreboard tailored specifically for those betting on spreads and totals. Using our NFL Scores Page to Handicap Football Games. You visit the NFL Scores page and see the Patriots are leading the Bills 28-0 at halftime. Is Buffalo likely to come out swinging in the second half? See the final NFL game results and scores. Did your NFL team cover the spread? Was the game total over or under? See completed football game results. ... Please check the online gambling regulations in your jurisdiction before placing any wagers with the betting sites advertised on SportsBettingDime.com, as they do vary. ... Real-time NFL Football scores on ESPN. Zach Wilson to the Jets in McShay's Mock Draft 2.0 3:44; Reid's heart goes out to everyone involved in his son's auto accident NFL Betting Information. NFL betting, from the start of September through the Super Bowl, is the lifeblood of US sportsbooks.Oddsmakers continue to innovate sports betting options for bettors by creating unique NFL props and futures, but betting on NFL point spreads and Over/Unders are by far the most popular way to attack the NFL season.. With popularity comes liquidity and efficiency. Find the top 2020-2021 NFL Matchups betting previews & odds for opening game odds, closing lines, betting trends, ATS results and more for pro football. NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks including live Scores. Get the most favorable betting lines from the the odds table listed here. Vegas Online Sports Betting provide the latest & update live NFL Football Odds, those lines are constantly updated throughout the day, with this in-depth look at each basketball betting type you will have the tools ... Find NFL odds, point spreads, and betting lines for the 2020-2021 football season. Visit FOXSports.com for this week's top action! The NFL season is only 16 games long, plus the playoffs. ... you’re going to use the points scored and allowed for each team at home and on the road to predict the scores for an upcoming game. ... Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on ...

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r/sportsbookextra: For more individual information

@FiveThirtyEight: RT @friscojosh: I wrote about just how few teams actually pass in clear passing situations in the NFL. If you're the gambling type, it's worth tracking the teams that make the right call in these situations: they'll score more points. https://t.co/NeRjAUS7jO

A Draft Pick, Free Agent Signing and Trade Target for all 32 teams