Teasers have been THE BOMB once again this year. Half the time both sides hit! It's been a great season. I got in my pics Monday before some of the lines changed. Odds based off of Bet365. BUF +0.5 -> Colts will need to play a perfect game in the COLD weather. And they're missing their LT Anthony Castonzo, that's huge. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has been playing lights out ever since Milano and Tre White got healthy. Allen can extend plays, Rivers cannot. LAR +11.5 -> It doesn't matter if Goff or Wolford is in at QB, he just needs to manage the game. The Rams defense is going to keep them in this game. Its a divisional game, Rams beat them once this year, this will be a close game either way. I actually like Wolford in at QB because he can scramble a bit unlike Goff. Rams are also getting Brockers and Whitworth back from injury, and Jamal Adams will play but not nearly at 100%. Griffin and Reed are questionable. This will be a close, low scoring game. TB -1.5 -> Not buying all the WFT hype at all. TB will put in an extra blocking TE/RB to slow down Young and the D line and Brady will get rid of the ball fast. TB knows this and Brady sure as hell does since his biggest weakness is a pass rush who can pressure him without blitzing. I just don't see how WFT is going to score. Checkdown Alex Smith can't throw anything other then short 8 yard or less passes, McLaurin and Gibson are playing hurt not nearly at 100% and those are your only 2 offensive 'explosive' playmakers, and it doesn't matter how good that D line is if the ball is out of Bradys hand quick. Do you really trust WFT to cover, or stay in the game none the less with the offense they have if they get down by 2+ possessions? Give me the more explosive team. Oh, TB has a pretty good defense too. Devin White isn't playing, but Barrett is. And this guy named Antonio Brown is playing lights out and should have a big game in the slot with quick passes. BAL +3.5 -> Better coaching, much better defense and special teams, and the revenge factor. Titans have beaten the Ravens the last 2 times, you know how hard that is to do, none the less beat them 3 times in the past year and a bit. Lamar will be up for this game. He's played as hungry as I've seen anyone play the last 5 weeks (be it against horrible defenses, like he's playing on Sunday). Lamar wants his first playoff win and will get it. He will eat this game. The Titans defense is absolutely terrible, and their special teams is almost ranked dead to last too. Baltimore has a HUGE defensive, special teams and coaching advantage with an added motivation to not lose to the Titans a 3rd time and Lamar to get his first playoff win. Looks like A.J Brown will play, but he's playing hurt. NWO -2.5 -> Saints are getting all their offensive weapons back it looks like for this game. There's not much explanation needed here. Trubisky and Nagy VS Brees (playing in his last season) and Payton. Saints have a top tier defense, they shouldn't have many issues slowing down the Bears offense. The Saints Super Bowl window is closed after this season, they are not going out in the first round to the Bears who don't even deserve to be in the playoffs like WFT. The Bears will have to pull all of the trickery they can to try and keep this game close. Another lower scoring game with the Bears running, eating clock and keeping the Saints offense off the field. Saints will struggle offensively too, but not as much as the Bears will. Not sure on the spread but love the Saints -2.5. PIT +3 (line is now +1, still like that) -> Cleveland barely beat Pittsburghs backups in a must win game last week. Not only are they dealing with COVID issues, they are dealing with a ton of injuries, particularly to their offensive line. Looks like they'll be down 2-3 starting offensive linemen against a rested Watt and Heyward, oh boy. And not having Stefanski on the sidelines is REALLY going to hurt the Browns. They've been dealt a sh!tty hand this year for finally making it in the playoffs after how long. Stefanski is their offensive playcaller and vocal leader on the sidelines. The Browns are going to be a mess on offense and defense. Good luck everyone!!!! Can't wait for the games!!!!
Didn't see a post for the F1 weekend yet, so I will create one. I have two bets for qualifying so far: Hamilton to get pole position @ 1.70 (Betfair) 1.70 is before commission, so at 5% commission the odds will be 1.665. I would bet it down to around 1.62. Hamilton is great around this track and frequently dominates. Furthermore, there is a chance of rain, and he has proven to be much faster than anyone else in the wet, as we most recently saw last weekend at the Styrian qualifying. Usually I don't love outrights, but everything seems to favor Hamilton this Saturday, so I will place two units on him to get pole. Ocon to qualify ahead of Ricciardo @ 2.75 (Bet365) I think Ocon is a bit underrated compared to Ricciardo. I believe they are almost equal on talent. Ricciardo does have more experience, but in qualifying pure pace is the main factor, and with Ricciardo leaving the team, I expect the Renault team to favor Ocon who is there for the long term. Ocon is a talented driver who out-qualified his previous team mate (Perez) the two times he has been to the Hungaroring. We can also hope for rain because Ocon is surprisingly good in the wet. There's around 40% chance of Ocon winning this matchup, and that's a conservative estimate. So at odds 2.75, the betvalue is there imo. 2 units once again. I will probably add more picks for the race tomorrow (if the bookies have anything interesting). Share your picks!
According to Bet365 which is one of the most trusted sports betting companies in Europe, the Lakers are the favorites to win the Western Conference. Odds: Lakers 2.62 (+162) Clippers 3.10 (+210). I'm a Lakers fan but I can't say I agree with those odds. Considering what we have seen from these teams so far, and assuming that they will both be at full strength, it should be a coin flip at best. The Clippers have 19 losses including the ones against the Bulls, Kings(twice), Suns, Pelicans, Hawks, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, which were surprising losses and had to do with the lack of effort/ complacency they show against much weaker sides (had to do with their injuries of course). The Lakers on the other side have been far more serious (not necessarily consistent throughout the games) against teams bellow 50% and they have only lost 2 such games: to the Magic and the Blazers (on that emotional night). On the other hand, with the exceptions of: Heat, Thunder, and Brooklyn, the Lakers have lost at least once against every top-8 team in each conference: Raptors, Mavericks, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, Celtics, Sixers, Rockets, Clippers(both games), Grizzlies. Also, the Clippers have been more convincing against contending teams when playing at full strength. The X-Factor for me is LeBron. During the regular season, we can gather all sorts of stats and performances and behaviors and whatever else... but playoff LeBron is also a thing! That being said, I see a Clippers team filled with great defenders, two stars on their peak, two of the best 6th men in the league and huge, huge depth (including Morris and Jackson). On the other side, I don't know what to expect from the Lakers! Green has declined as a player on both ends (he is not the elite 3 and D I thought he was when they signed him), Rondo is fighting his demons, Dwight and McGee are not reliable or the guys you can count on, my man Caruso is a fun guy, and Kuzma is Kuzma... I do like KCP and Bradley and maybe Morris but for a team that was built around Lebron, it's straight-up bad to not have a single-player shooting above 40% from long range or at least being consistent. I don't think the Lakers are the favorites over the Clippers guys. Maybe LeBron is...if you understand what I mean...
The qualifying session for the Abu Dhabi GP stars in two hours. The last one of the season. My bets for qualifying so far: Daniel Ricciardo ahead of Nico Hulkenberg @ 1.89 (Cloudbet) I bet this after FP2 yesterday. After Ricciardo's solid FP3, he's now a bigger favorite and the 1.89 odds no longer remains, but I see value down to 1.60 or so. The Australian is decent at this track, even out-qualifying Verstappen here last year. Hulkenberg, meanwhile, is just average here, although it could be a factor that this is his last race. Lando Norris ahead of Carlos Sainz @ 3.25 (Bet365) 3.25, what? Way too high. Sainz has scored a lot more points than Norris this year, mostly due to being in the right place at the right time and a bunch of bad luck for Norris. On pure pace, they are about even, and over one lap I can easily see Norris beating Sainz. In fact I think it's around 50-50 between them, so there's great value in 3.25. Charles Leclerc ahead of Sebastian Vettel @ 1.70 (SBO) Vettel was slightly faster in FP3 after Leclerc had the upper hand in FP2, but they were almost even. However, in the second half of the season, Leclerc has dominated Vettel on Sunday's and he's furious after what happened between them in Brazil. I think Leclerc will do well here, at least compared to his team mate. Last year in Abu Dhabi, he qualified his Alfa Romeo quite high. I will add more for the race tomorrow. I'm starting to publish my bets on bettin.gs and the page is here: https://bettin.gs/boldsharps What are you guys betting on?
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Why betting on teams like Barca / Atletico / RM / Chelsea / Bayern / Juve etc is a bad idea.
Hi guys. I've seen (and personally have posted) picks about the "guarantee" win teams when they offer very low odds (i.e. $1.20 for a win) and as a general consensus I (along with most of us) believe these are not good bets in the long run. I'm going to explain in my opinion why this is the case, so hopefully a few people will avoid these "sure things" that offer a low pay-out. To help my example, i'm going to use 8 teams who are "sure things" - being: Atletico, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich, PSG, Chelsea and Man City. You might disagree that these teams (mainly City I guess) are "sure things" but 8 is better than 7 so w/e. What i'm going to do is take an average of their win % so far this season by simply dividing how many games they've won respectively by the total number of games in the league. Note, this will include (because i'm lazy) games such as RM v Barca where the odds are higher than normal, and the win % is impacted by these fixtures, but for simple analysis it's fine. 1 - Atletico - 50% 2 - RM - 73.7% 3 - Barca - 60% 4 - Juve - 81% 5 - Bayern - 77.8% 6 - PSG - 63.6% 7 - Chelsea - 78.3% 8 - Man City - 60.9% Ok, so as I mentioned - it's a bit tough to compare the first three teams but w/e. On average - these teams have odds ranging anywhere from $1.05 to $1.40 against the "weaker" teams. Sometimes you might get lucky where City or Chelsea are paying $1.60 against the likes of Bournemouth etc, but for the most part that's rare. If you bet $10 on Juve to win, you have (based on current form) an 81% chance of winning, with odds of approx $1.25. So, $12.50 x .81 = $10.125. Technically, that's a good bet (in terms of EV) - however that's just a single. What if we put in a multi. Imagine if you placed RM, Barca and PSG all to win in the weekend, with all three teams paying $1.30 (current odds on Bet365 respectively are $1.44, $1.22 and $1.25 for their games this weekend - which averages to be $1.303), then your multi would have odds of approximately $2.20. however, based on the odds calculated above, there's only a 28.12% chance of all three teams winning any given game. So, imagine if you bet $10 on a win to return $22, the EV on that bet is only $6.19. You're effectively (on average) losing $3.81 on this bet. Now there's a lot of factors that go into this that my basic example over-looks, such as form, win% being skewed by playing other "strong teams", home/away form, injuries, other team you're playing etc, however in the grand scheme of things these are impacted by the odds offered. The main point i'm making is that while the teams i've listed above "should" win every game, they (as we have all suffered from in the past) dont. This is why a lot of us look for the games that are paying between $1.50 - $2.20 to bet on, as the odds for these coming through are around 60 - 75%, meaning we have a positive EV on each bet (which is more than a few cents in monetary value) and, In the long run we make money. If you place a multi on the above teams each week, you will eventually lose money in the long run. Anyway, that's my rant over. There is obvious flaws in my basic calculations (no doubt) - but unless one of these teams are offering amazing odds against a poor team, try to avoid them. It's not worth it in the long run.
A RATHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK THIS WEEK. SORRY FOLKS!
Hello everyone. Sorry this has gone up later than usual. Sorry my picks have recently been quite shocking. That changes today. The game plan is this. 14 Games in the long list, of which I will go in depth for the 5 best picks. For each game I will provide a BTTS Ratio Number (Games ended BTTS divided by total games of both teams) and a BTTS Value Factor (The Ratio Multiplied by the odds provided by Bet365). The Ration Number will be a quick way to see how Likely the pick is to come in; the Value Factor is how likely it is to come in for the Price given. E.G, Northampton have a higher RN than Charlton, so is more likely to happen. But since Charlton's Price is 1.90 and Northampton's is 1.50, you get more money for chance in the Charlton game. I figured I would provide these as I am not going into depth on all picks, just 5. Here is the list:
MY PICKS:
FIXTURE:
BTTS ODDS:
BTTS RESULTS
RATIO NUMBER
VALUE FACTOR
WALSALL Vs. GILLINGHAM
@1.70
26/33
0.79
1.34
DONCASTER Vs. HARTLEPOOL
@1.66
25/32
0.78
1.29
AFC WIMBLEDON Vs. BURY
@1.75
24/34
0.71
1.24
BRISTOL ROVERS Vs. MK DONS
@1.66
24/34
0.71
1.18
ACCRINGTON Vs STEVENAGE
@1.72
21/31
0.68
1.17
MAIDSTONE Vs. WOKING
@1.53
29/38
0.76
1.16
CHARLTON Vs. PORT VALE
@1.90
19/33
0.58
1.10
MANSFIELD Vs. CRAWLEY TOWN
@1.83
19/32
0.59
1.08
NOTTS COUNTY Vs. NEWPORT
1.66
20/31
0.65
1.08
BARNET Vs. CREWE
@1.61
21/32
0.66
1.06
DOVER Vs. GUISELEY
@1.75
22/38
0.58
1.02
BIRMINGHAM Vs. BRISTOL CITY
@1.72
19/32
0.59
1.01
NORTHAMPTON Vs. PETERBOROUGH
@1.50
22/34
0.65
0.98
PRESTON Vs. WOLVES
@1.83
16/32
0.50
0.92
TOTAL 5-FOLD
@14.10
TOTAL 8-FOLD
@75.01
TOTAL 11-FOLD
@350.83
TOTAL 14-FOLD
@1,656.42
WALSALL Vs. GILLINGHAM:
Walsall are 14th; Gillingham are 17th.
Walsall have scored 21, conceded 22; Gillingham have scored 24, conceded 30.
Walsall have had 11/16 games end BTTS; Gillingham have had 15/17 games end BTTS.
Walsall have had 4/5 recent games end BTTS; Gillingham have had 5/5 recent games end BTTS.
Walsall have had 7/8 Home games end BTTS; Gillingham have had 6/8 Away games end BTTS.
Walsall have had 4/5 recent Home games end BTTS; Gillingham have had 4/5 recent Away games end BTTS.
DONCASTER Vs. HARTLEPOOL:
Doncaster are 3rd; Hartlepool are 15th.
Doncaster have scored 33, conceded 23; Hartlepool have scored 25, conceded 28.
Doncaster have had 12/16 games end BTTS; Hartlepool have had 13/16 games end BTTS.
Doncaster have had 4/5 recent games end BTTS; Hartlepool have had 4/5 recent games end BTTS.
Doncaster have had 5/8 Home games end BTTS; Hartlepool have had 7/8 Away games end BTTS.
Doncaster have had 3/5 recent Home games end BTTS; Hartlepool have had 4/5 recent Away games end BTTS.
AFC WIMBLEDON Vs. BURY:
Wimbledon are 10th; Bury are 16th.
Wimbledon have scored 23, conceded 21; Bury have scored 25, conceded 29.
Wimbledon have had 12/16 games end BTTS; Bury have had 12/16 games end BTTS.
Wimbledon have had 2/5 recent games end BTTS; Bury have had 3/5 recent games end BTTS.
Wimbledon have had 6/8 Home games end BTTS; Bury have had 6/8 games end BTTS.
Wimbledon have had 3/5 recent Home games end BTTS; Bury have had 4/5 recent games end BTTS.
BRISTOL ROVERS Vs. MK DONS:
Bristol are 6th; MK Dons are 21st.
Bristol have scored 26, conceded 27; MK Dons have scored 21, conceded 26.
Bristol have had 14/17 games end BTTS; MK Dons have had 10/17 games end BTTS.
Bristol have had 3/5 recent games end BTTS; MK Dons have had 4/5 recent games end BTTS.
Bristol have had 8/8 Home games end BTTS; MK Dons have had 5/8 Away games end BTTS.
Bristol have had 5/5 recent Home games end BTTS; MK Dons have had 4/5 recent Away games end BTTS.
ACCRINGTON Vs. STEVENAGE:
Accrington are 11th; Stevenage are 20th.
Accrington have scored 19, conceded 21; Stevenage have scored 22 conceded 24.
Accrington have had 11/16 games end BTTS; Stevenage have had 10/15 games end BTTS.
Accrington have had 3/5 recent games end BTTS; Stevenage have had 4/5 recent games end BTTS.
Accrington have had 7/8 Home games end BTTS; Stevenage have had 3/7 Away games end BTTS.
Accrington have had 4/5 recent Home games end BTTS; Stevenage have had 2/5 recent Away games end BTTS.
MY BETS:
£15.00 on 5-Fold @14.10 Returns £214.10
£10.00 on 8-Fold @75.11 Returns £766.03 (+ Other = £980.13)
£4.00 on 11-Fold @350.83 Returns £1,443.68 (+ Others = £2423.81)
£1.00 on 14-Fold @1,714.37 Returns 1,714.37 (+ Others = £4138.18)
THANKS FOR READING!
PLEASE DO NOT BET ANY MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!
LET ME KNOW IF YOU ARE FOLLOWING ANY OF THE PICKS/BETS!
FEEL FREE TO ASK ANY QUESTIONS! I WILL BE HAPPY TO ANSWER THEM!
Morning everyone!!!!! Ok so here goes this is for La Liga, the Premiership and Bundesliga. I am busy with Eredivisie but something is wrong with the data so I dont know if I'll get it done by this weekend.... I'll try but no promises. Again first row is the models predicted odds for the games. The second is Bet365's odds The odds in BOLD are the models predicitons. N.BThis is its first major weekend of trying it out please place bets at your own caution. The model takes into account for upsets and factors this into its predicitons yes Munich are favourites and the model agrees but it has still predicted Schalke to win...... we will see lol. I am hoping for about a 55% hit on both La Liga and the Premiership, if we can get a 50% hit on the Bundesliga I'd be over the moon as it seems to be a little less accurate on it. If anyone would like to help develop this model please pm me gorat as already offered and I shall be creating a zip file that can be freely shared for everyone, the model is written in R so if you know how to use R then great if not then start learning cause its a great stats tool. If you do make any useful improvements to the model please let me know so we can all share in the wealth!!!! ;P LA LIGA
Ath Bilbao
Draw
Granada
Malaga
Draw
Vallodolid
Levante
Draw
Osasuna
1.71
4.44
5.19
1.81
4.29
4.63
1.91
4.12
4.28
1.4
4.33
8.5
1.85
3.4
4.33
2.2
3.2
3.4
Getafe
Draw
Espanyol
Elche
Draw
Celta
Villareal
Draw
Betis
2.16
3.88
3.56
2.29
3.93
3.23
1.54
4.87
6.89
2.5
3.2
2.87
2.37
3.1
3.1
1.4
4.5
8
Ath Madrid
Draw
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Draw
Sociedad
Barcelona
Draw
Almeria
3.41
3.95
2.2
2.13
3.96
3.58
1.08
18.45
59.52
3.3
3.5
2.1
1.9
3.6
3.75
1.06
11
34
Vallecano
Draw
Valencia
3.74
3.91
2.1
3.5
3.3
2.1
PREMIERSHIP
Everton
Draw
WestHam
Fulham
Draw
Chelsea
Hull
Draw
Newcastle
1.67
4.52
5.58
6.07
4.59
1.62
2.48
3.81
2.99
1.44
4.20
7.50
7.00
4.33
1.44
2.40
3.1
3.10
Stoke
Draw
Arsenal
Southampton
Draw
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Draw
Norwich
4.77
4.23
1.80
3.72
4.02
2.07
2.05
4.00
3.80
5.50
3.80
1.61
3.40
3.50
2.05
2.00
3.30
3.80
Swansea
Draw
Crystal Palace
Tottenham
Draw
Cardiff
1.82
4.21
4.66
1.38
5.95
9.42
1.80
3.50
4.50
1.33
4.75
10.00
BUNDESLIGA
Hertha
Draw
Freiburg
Leverkusen
Draw
Mainz
Dortmund
Draw
Nurnberg
1.92
4.44
3.95
1.65
4.91
5.28
1.34
6.67
9.46
1.61
3.75
5.50
1.70
4.00
4.50
1.22
6.50
11.00
Braunschweig
Draw
M'gladbach
Augsburg
Draw
Hannover
Werder Bremen
Draw
Hamburg
4.53
4.53
1.79
2.16
4.31
3.27
2.41
4.14
2.90
4.00
3.60
1.85
1.75
4.00
4.20
2.65
3.50
2.50
Bayern Munich
Draw
Schalke 04
Hoffenheim
Draw
Wolfsburg
Ein Frankfurt
Draw
Stuttgart
1.45
5.62
7.47
2.82
4.18
2.46
2.25
4.12
3.20
1.18
7.00
13.00
2.60
3.40
2.60
2.10
3.50
3.30
If I get the Eredivisie up before the weekend Ill update it on here, I will also try update things like most likely score and the models predicted score plus overs and unders for goals.... this is if I get chance. ( I've got to help my wife out with her stats for her MSc) Oddsportal Coupon Shits about to get real!!!!! EDIT: So its acutally been an pretty bad so far: 1/7 for the Bundesliga , 1/5 for La Liga and a rather good 3/5 for the Premiership! La Liga can still pull it back tomorrow.... EDIT2: Well the weekend is almost over a rather disappointing 3/9 thats only a 33% hit rate on the correct pick. La Liga isn't finished yet but it's not looking good either with only 1/7 so far and the best we can hope for is a 4/10 successful pick..... a measly 40% So not the best here either ended 3/10.... However the Premiership was a great success with 5/8 that's a 62.5% hit rate on the correct pick. Now to try and figure out where it went wrong...... hopefully I'll be able to make some adjustments and post in time for next weekend. It's been fun everyone thanks!!!
Hull vs Sheffield United odds, preview and predictions
Sunday 13/04/2014, 18:00, England FA Cup, Semifinals, Hull vs Sheffield United Hull vs Sheffield United Betting Preview Nothing can happen in the remaining rounds for either Hull or Sheffield United, as the teams cruise at the middle of their divisions. Hull is not in danger of relegating, while Sheffield United is too far behind the leading pack to dream about promotion. The FA Cup semifinals are the highlight of the year for both of them and this should lead to an intense match, even though goals are expected to be in short supply. Hull vs Sheffield United Betting Odds At Bet365 Hull 1.70 , Draw 3.75 Sheffield United 5.75 Hull vs Sheffield United Betting Tips It is disappointing for Sheffield to trail the leaders by 34 points and the fact that they have a snowflake's chance in hell to catch Peterborough is even more upsetting. They will have a new opportunity to aim for promotion next season and with Nigel Clough at the helm, Sheffield United will be a strong candidate. This coach extracted an astonishing amount from the cards he was dealt and his achievements in the FA Cup are remarkable to say the least. This is the third time that Sheffield United faces an opponent from the Premier League, as it already caused the elimination of Aston Villa and Fulham. Nottingham Forest and Charlton also blocked their way at some stage but none of them were a match for Nigel's boys, The team plays defense surprisingly well and they're not overly concerned about scoring goals, but focus on denying any chances to their opponents. So far this strategy worked like a charm and Hull is unlikely to cause any problems, at least not at this moment. The team's performance in the Premier League was subpar in March, and they only scored four goals in the last five matches. They are also one of the worst traveling teams and this should also be factored in, since the FA Cup semifinals are played at Wembley Stadium. Key Facts Hull City is a rather inconsistent team on the road and has won just three times in 16 games Jelavic and Long are players of critical importance for Hull and both of them are cup tied, which means that the team will be without two of its best strikers. Hull vs Sheffield United Betting Odds Prediction There is clearly no value in backing the hosts to win, as they are underpriced by bookmakers. One solid option would be to bet on less than 2.5 goals to be scored, but there is more value to be found in the odds offered by Bet365 for Sheffield United to win or draw. They might be the underdogs, but they are no pushovers and with Hull City missing its most prolific strikers, this game could easily end undecided. Bet: Sheffield United or Draw @ 2.15 with Bet365 from Spain via www.casinoreviews.casino
So I thought I'd do this as a bit of fun, hope you guys enjoy it. On Saturday Chelsea face Arsenal. This is a game Arsenal need at the least a point from loosing here and one must feel that their title chances will be lost as well. Chelsea are still unbeaten under Mourniho at home in the premier league and as a manager he has never lost to Wenger with a record of W5 D5 L0, on top of that Arsenal have an extremely long injury list which incudes the likes of Ozil, Wilshere, Ramsey, Walcott. But there is some good news for Arsenal, out of all the premier teams Arsenal have the most away wins at the Bridge with 7, this is Wenger's 1000th game in charge and this will sure to be a motivating factor for the team, plus Chelsea are going to be without Ramires (arguably Chelsea's best player) and Willian. Right let's get down to the nitty gritty of this all. What is the most possible outcome for this epic struggle? SKILL Well we could look at the skill ratings from each team using clubelo.com. For those of you who are unaware of how elo works the simple matter of it is that if your points value is 100 point higher than your opponents then you have about a 64% chance of winning the game, when you hit 200 point difference then that increases to 76% chance of victory. As you can see Chelsea are miles ahead in the skill factor and the elo ratings is givin Chelsea a 51% chance of winning the game, while Arsenal's chances are a pretty dissmal 22%. However looking at Bet365's odds Chelsea are actually 54% (1.85) favourites to win and poor old Arsenal's chances are 21% (4.75). So a Chelsea win is looking spot on. Bååth Model However the Bååth Model suggests otherwise it's gone for a surprising 0-0 draw. Why? Well the premier league skill level can be summed up in this graph, the skill levels predicted by the model follows very closely to that of clubelo.com's and has Chelsea miles ahead. So how does the model predict a DRAW?? I hear you ask. Well the model's odds are slightly different to that of Bet365's (I'm sure you have all figured that out by now). According to the model Chelsea are actually only 48.54% (2.06) to win and Arsenal are 26.46% (3.78) to win, meaning a draw is almost as likely (25%) as an Arsenal win. So how does the model work this out? Well it takes the games from the previous 5 Seasons and the current season and plots a histogram of the goals. This shows us that actually the most likely difference between these two teams is to be either 1 goal or 0 goals. If we then look at the mean Home Goals for Chelsea it sits at 1.6 goals a game. Arsenal's mean Away Goal count is 1.1 a game, giving us a difference of 0.5 goals in Chelsea's favour. END GAME So the model really has two choices :
1 a Chelsea win
2 a Draw.
And seeing that Arsenal are the best team in the Premiership it's gone for a draw. My personal pick here will be Chelsea DNB @1.33 (Bet365) For shit's and giggles here is a breakdown for the odds of exact scores. Hope you guy's enjoyed that and sorry if it was a bit of a wall of txt.
The first Outright-Winner (Tournament Winner) odds for the upcoming League of Legends World Championship are available. The majority of participants in the LoL World Championship 2016 are waiting in the wings and some of the major LoL betting sites have already released the first odds for the outright tournament winner. Right before the group draw ceremony taking place live on Saturday, September 10th, the bookmakers from Bet365 were the first to open the market for LoL Worlds 2016. But we are sure all other online betting sites will follow soon and rank the 16 participants from all over the world accordingly in the next couple of days.
Bet365 odds for the Outright Winner
Team
Odds
Team
Odds
SK Telecom T11
2.75
ROX Tigers1
2.75
Edward Gaming2
6.00
Samsung Galaxy
11.00
Royal Never Give Up
13.00
Team SoloMid3
17.00
G2 Esports3
21.00
Flash Wolves
21.00
I May
41.00
Splyce
81.00
Counter Logic Gaming
81.00
Cloud9
81.00
ahq e-Sports club
101.00
H2K
101.00
Albus Nox Luna3
2001.00
INTZ3
2001.00
1 Unsurprisingly the South Korean powerhouse and defending champion SK Telecom T1 in conjunction with the first seeded team from Korea, ROX Tigers, were getting the best odds for winning the whole tournament. 2 After a clutch defeat in the last year’s championship Edward Gaming managed to bounce back and secure the highest ranking of all the non-Korean teams. 3 The “best in the west” betting odds are proudly presented to Team SoloMid followed by G2 Esports from Europe. You can multiply your betting stake by a factor of over 2000 if you end up being right betting on the victory of one of the Wildcard teams. The odds are heavily inclined to the Korean teams, SK Telecom T1 avoided the championship curse, will G2 Esports have a good performance in this tournament? What are your thoughts about this odds? and who's your favourite winner for Worlds 2016?
More information about the League of Legends World Championship 2016 are available here in our tournament overview, a complete detailed guide for the Worlds 2016.
Week 3 - LCS NA Spring Split 2017 | Preview & predictions
Even if we think we are fully prepared for the NA LCS Spring Split Week 3, the North American teams will strike us with unexpected turnarounds and crazy results. The only factor that remains constant is the Cloud9 team which stands on top of the ladder – unmatched and apparently invincible – but this persecutor field after 4 matches would nobody have expected. While Team SoloMid has been one of the fan favorites of the NA LCS for years, most experts and analysts would rather have put Phoenix1 and FlyQuest at the end of the table. The clash between the North American bedrocks Counter Logic Gaming and Team SoloMid will be the most exciting game of the week, so don’t miss to turn in on February 3rd when it’s once again “Welcome to Summoner’s Rift”!
Grand Finals and Match for 3rd - LCS NA Summer Playoffs 2017 | Preview & predictions
No big surprises – the NA LCS 2017 Season 7 train is even in the Grand Finals of the Summer Split playoffs on schedule! There is one big constant factor in the NA LCS – and this is Team SoloMid. The North American prodigies were able to participate in every single playoff final match from the beginning of the LCS. But instead of their usual opponents known as Cloud9 or Counter Logic Gaming there is a new challenger approaching Bjergsen and his teammates on Summoner’s Rift – the Immortals. The five North American top players wearing the Immortals jerseys were finally able to overcome their playoff misfortune and qualified with an easy win over Counter Logic Gaming for the last game of the NA LCS season 7. Now they are one victory away from calling themselves the best NA team of the year and qualifying for the 2017 League of Legends World Championship. League of Legends veteran Xmithie claimed the title best jungler of the season and will now field his motivated teammates into the rift for the most important match of the NA LCS Summer Split 2017. The final games of the split will start on September 2nd, so don’t miss turning in for more unnerving League of Legends action.
Overview
Dates: 09/02/2017 – 09/03/2017
Start Times: see schedule in our page
Format: 2 matches | One best of five match per day
Grand Finals and Match for 3rd - LCS NA Summer Playoffs 2017 | Preview & predictions
No big surprises – the NA LCS 2017 Season 7 train is even in the Grand Finals of the Summer Split playoffs on schedule! There is one big constant factor in the NA LCS – and this is Team SoloMid. The North American prodigies were able to participate in every single playoff final match from the beginning of the LCS. But instead of their usual opponents known as Cloud9 or Counter Logic Gaming there is a new challenger approaching Bjergsen and his teammates on Summoner’s Rift – the Immortals. The five North American top players wearing the Immortals jerseys were finally able to overcome their playoff misfortune and qualified with an easy win over Counter Logic Gaming for the last game of the NA LCS season 7. Now they are one victory away from calling themselves the best NA team of the year and qualifying for the 2017 League of Legends World Championship. League of Legends veteran Xmithie claimed the title best jungler of the season and will now field his motivated teammates into the rift for the most important match of the NA LCS Summer Split 2017. The final games of the split will start on September 2nd, so don’t miss turning in for more unnerving League of Legends action.
Overview
Dates: 09/02/2017 – 09/03/2017
Start Times: see schedule in our page
Format: 2 matches | One best of five match per day
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