I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

• "The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
  • "I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
• "For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
  • "We're spread way too thin."
• "If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
• RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
  • Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
  • ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
  • Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
  • Widespread match fixing
  • The Pandemic
    • "People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
    • "People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
      • "To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
      • "Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
      • "People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
• "It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
  • RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
    • He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

• RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
  
  • He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
    • He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
      • He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
    • Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
    • RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
    • Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
      • "and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
• He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
  
  • "We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
  • He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
  • "They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
• He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
  
  • He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
    • He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
  • He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
    • RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
  • "I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
  • "Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
    • "Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
    • "That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
• He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
  
• He also says their rankings are a joke
  
  • "Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
• He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
  
• "Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
  

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

• RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
• "ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
  • "Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
  • "Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
    • Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
      • Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
  • "They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
    • "They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
• ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
  • He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
    • Also says more coaches being banned are coming
    • He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
• ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
  
  • "I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
  • "So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
    • "Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
• RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
  

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

• RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
  • On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
    • "Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
      • He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
        • He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
        • The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
        • "ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
• He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
• "All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
  • He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

• RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
  • "Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
• "Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
• Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
  • Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
    • They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
      • "I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
        • "Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
• RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
• "There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
  • "It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
• "It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
  • "I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
• He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
• "That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
  • "All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
• "I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

• RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
• There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
• He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
  • RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
  • He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
• He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
  • He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
    • They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
    • When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
    • "was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
    • He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
• He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
  • He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
• He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
  • He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
• He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
• He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
  • Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
• RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
• RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

• RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
• He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
• Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
• He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
  • He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
• He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
• He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
• New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
• He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
• He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
• He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

• Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
  • Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
• In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
• RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
• He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
• RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
  • A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
  • RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
  • RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
• RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
• Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
  • They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
• RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
  • Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
• He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
• Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
  • RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
• "It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
  • Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
• "Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
• "People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

• RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
• "We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
• "There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
• "How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
• "Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
• "The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
  • He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
• He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
  • "If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
    • "They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
• He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
• "Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
• "This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
• "You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
  • "Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
• "Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
  • "You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
• "I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
  • "I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
• "I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."

Chapter One: Bozeman or Bust (lots of bust)
I had done it once again, like so many other years before, by traveling north to one of the harshest and coldest states that a hobo could possibly go to during the dead of winter, late-January 2021: Mon-fucking-tana. Or as the locals jokingly say, "Montucky". (edit: Shout-out to Montucky Cold Snacks, the cheap horse-piss watered down beer that is Montana's equivalent of Washington's "Rainier Ale" or Oregon's "Session Lager"). I digress.
If I was a goose, I'd surely be the Jonathan Livingston Seagull of the flock…the black sheep shitshow of a goose flying in the completely wrong direction at the worst time of the year. As forementioned, this was not the first time, nor second time, that I've done this. In fact, it's become a habit, if not straight-up routine.
Laramie, Wyoming circa November 2016. Glendive, Montana circa January 2015 Minot, North Dakota circa January 2014. Yukon, Canada circa November 2013. Bellingham, Washington circa January 2006. The list goes on, and on, and on…
And here I am. Bozeman Fucking Montana, circa January-February 2021. The locals say it's an unusually warm winter, which by Montana's standards might include 5 inches of snow in the afternoon and temperatures dropping below 10F degrees at night. However, according to the high standards of a low-class hobo born and raised on the Gulf Coast of Alabama, this weather is colder than a witches tit.
Now, that's not to say that I ain't prepared though. I assure you that I am. Sixteen years of living on the road and rails has made this black goose a well-seasoned bird, with all the trimmings. I have a military sleeping bag that can keep me alive down to negative 30 temperatures. My military backpack is waterproof, and so are the snowboarding pants that I wear under my insulated Carharrt overalls. I have alpaca wool thermal pants, merino wool socks, thermolite waterproof boots, thinsulated gloves, and several wool and polyster beanie hats. My dual-layer mountaineering tent can withstand hurricane-force winds and all the snow that a blizzard can muster.
Winter? Montana? Bring it bitch. Hit me with your best shot. You know I like it. wink
Sigh. However, DESPITE the freezing temperatures and shit tons of snow, there's a lil secret that I've learned during my many years of traveling, and that secret is certainly DUE to these wintery conditions: Jobs! Lots and lots and lots and lots of jobs! Jobs here, jobs there, jobs every-fucking-where. Hotel jobs, restaurant jobs, retail jobs, construction jobs, maintenance jobs, driving jobs, even jobs just to help other people get more damn jobs!
You want a job during winter? Well they got jobs out northern Californie way, Oregonie way, Montanie way, Washingtonie way, North and South Dakotie way, and every which way can go above above the Mason-Dixon line!
If you can't find a damn job in the Northwestern United States of America during winter, you ain't fucking looking, and that's a fact. If you got one arm and you can swing a hammer, or punch a number on a cash register, then consider yourself hired on the spot and you can start today.
Before this chapter turns into an entire damn book of its own (A Hobo's Guide to Finding Jobs) let's get back to the story here: Bozeman or Bust.
As I begin this chapter, I have a red-wine hangover that is enough to drive me to a bullet in the head. I made a pot of coffee only to puke it back up on my hands and knees in front the porcelain thrown. I think it was good ole Earnest Hemingway that once said "Write Drunk, Edit Sober". Experienced words of wisdom from a fine man that knew everything a man could possibly know about drinking shit tons of wine and writing shit tons of stories. I wouldn't be lying if I was to confess that Mr. Hemingway, along with Mr. Steinbeck and Mr. Twain, are drunken heroes of mine that I could only hope someday to sit alongside in the bookstores of Hell and Hades with a gallon of cheap Merlot. Salut, gentleman.
After puking, rolling cigarettes, drinking coffee, and puking several times more, I was finally able to sit down to try and remember what-the-fuck happened yesterday; a solemn meditation technique that involves tons of coffee and contemplation; a time to worship the asinine achievements that are accompanied in both rejoice and regret.
Yesterday started off sober as a saint. I had a job interview at this place I had found on craigslist, some place looking for fresh warm bodies to fill up their production-assembly line. I took a bus to the address they had given me, which ended up being the adress to the Bozeman City Bank.
"A bank?", I thought, as I wondered around the parking lot dumbfounded and confused for a solid 5 minutes, checking the address several times on my phone, wondering why on earth I've been sent to a state bank. After circling the parking lot, I noticed a door on the side of the bank that said "Job Choices Employment Services: Second Floor".
Godammit. I had been fucking conned. Fucking craigslist. I know what's going on here…this a goddamn employment agency that wants to take 10-15 percent of my paycheck, take away my rights to healthcare and benefits, in the so-called promise of finding me a "great career path of opportunity".
Employment agencies. Just like rats. The only "opportunity" here was them: Creatures of opportunity, parasites hellbent on scavaging peoples money and benefits. "A not-even-close-to-great career path of 9-5 slave-labor bullshit involving years of suckling away your mind, body, and spirit", the sign on the door should have read.
This was definitely a mistake. And anyone that has ever had the unfortunate pleasure of being with me can you tell one thing about me: I fucking love mistakes. I love making them, and I love learning from them. I am a walking-talking connoisseur of mistakes. In fact, I just made a mistake trying to spell connoisseur, so I asked Google "Hey Google, spell connoisseur", and due to lack of interpreting my Alabama accent, Google made the mistake of showing me the word Coitus. I have now learned that the word "coitus" is another word for sex. As a writer and the son of an English teacher, I love learning new words. As a human male, I love sex. So learning a new word for "sex" is a fantastic trade-off for that fortunate mistake!
I digress.
I decided to walk into the bank, up the stairs to the second floor, and down the hall to the employment agency. A well-dressed and very sexy debutant by the name of Tracy stood up and greeted me with a smile that was formal, professional, and admittedly very sexy.
While my dirty mind started playing cheap porn music, along with vivid images of me and Tracy wrecking that office like wild alleycats, I was suddenly snapped back into reality with Tracy's sexy voice, saying:
"Hey, you must be Mr. Huck! Are you here for the 3:00 o'clock interview? Could you please start by filling out this application? You can have a seat over at the desk here"…
Godammit. This employment agency was GOOD. I was Tracy's submissive little slut. I walked right where Tracy told me to walk, sat right in the chair Tracy pulled out for me to sit in, and I started filling out the application with the ballpoint pen that Tracy had somehow put in my hand without me even realizing it. Tracy could have stolen my wallet and the 11 dollars inside of it as well, had she wanted to, and I wouldn't have even noticed. And even if I had noticed, I would have let her do it anyway. Godammit!
As I started to fill out the application, I got to the section I dreaded most: job references. Oh boy…allow me to tell you a little about Huck's references, or lacktherof:
At my last job, I was fired because of a fight that broke-out between my ex-girlfriend and myself, which began with lots of shouting and shoving, and ended with me getting a black-eye from being punched in the face twice. Fun fact: Italian women are fiery as they are fierce, and bold as they are beautiful. And just like their male Italian counterparts, such as Sylvester Stalone or Al Capone, they know how to land a solid right jab. This fight erupted in the worker's dormitory for all employees to hear and see. And although I was the one with the swollen black eye, I was the one they decided to fire. C'est la vie, such is life. Que sera sera, it be what it fucking be.
We can scratch that job off as a reference, without a doubt.
The job before that, I was at a marijuana farm called "Great American Cannabis", in which my managers and co-workers tried to recruit me into a far-right group of sexist and racist baboons called "The Proud Boys".
There was a pre-determining factor in why that farm had hired me, and assumed I would be interested in their idealogical gang. That pre-determing factor was the very same factor that led Google to teaching me the wrong word and definition: my Alabama accent.
Great American Cannabis had hired me based on a phone interview, in which they assumed my southern accent indicated two things, in which case one of their assumptions was right, and one was wrong:
Assumption Numero Uno: Huck has an Alabama accent, which therefore indicates that he has years of experience working on farms, growing plants, and being an honest and hard-worker.
Assumption Numero Dos: Huck has an Alabama accent, therefore he must be idealogically aligned with far-right beliefs including sexism and racism.
Welp, I am proud to say that even that although a 50% winning percentage may be fine and dandy with gambling in Vegas, and can be seen as half full or half empty based on however optimisitic or pessimistic you might be, in the case of Great American Cannabis and The Proud Boys, those odds ended pretty badly.
As it turns out, despite being raised by a racist father and surrounded by bigotry in the not-so-sweet home of Alabama, those very dispositions made this black sheep child rebel from such ass-backward beliefs, and I am staunchly pro-civil rights, which means I am pro-immigration, and a proud supporter of the sufferage movement for womens right.
Obviously, that did not go very well with my co-workers at the farm, and I was fired within the first month. But wait, theres more tragic humor to the story of this farm, which I'll organize in two keypoints:
Keypoint Numero Uno: The farm was owned by Iranian immigrants. I…shit…you…not. That's right. YOU DID READ THAT CORRECTLY. Not only was the farm owned and managed by a minority group of immigrants, those very immigrants came directly from the very country is at the VERY TOP of White-America's shitlist: Iran.
Keypoint Numeros Dos: After I was fired based almost entirely according to my leftist and progressive views on race and gender equality, within just a couple of weeks nearly everybody on the farm was fired and replaced by cheaper immigrant labor in the form of Laotian women. That's right…a white-blooded American-born legal-working male, was replaced by brown-blooded, foreign-born, mostly-illegal-working females, on a farm owned and managed by right-wing racists and sexists that were anti-immigration. Once again, I…shit…you…fucking…not...let THAT shit sink in.
I literally cannot make this shit up, and let it be forever proof that reality, however tragic or ironic it may be, is far greater than fiction. You can write that last sentence in a letter, shove that puppy in an envelope, slap that bitch with a stamp, and mail it to the fucking MOON. Or you can mail it to Iran, or Laos, whichever you prefer.
However, I digress.
So, being that I was fired from Great American Cannabis by a bunch of Iranian Proud Boys, you can scratch that job off of the "reference" list as well. Sigh.
So, how about the job before that? Well, that's a hell of a story too, but I'll make it quick and cut shorter to the chase:
I worked on a fishing boat for a Mormon captain. Although I loved him like a Dad, and he often treated me like a son, my job ended in these words:
"Huck, I really like you. You're one of the hardest working deckhands I've ever had, despite it being a very terrible year for fishing. However, as a man that is a Latter Day Saint of God, as a Mormon, I'm going to have to ask you to leave because of three reasons:
1) You smoke cigarettes, marijuana, and drink alcohol and coffee.
2) You curse worse than a sailor.
3) You are an atheist/agnostic."
And in case you, the reader did not know: Mormons HATE cigarettes, marijuana, alcohol, AND coffee. They are forbidden to curse, and they are not even allowed to tolerate the company of anyone that isn't a believer in God.
Well Godammit. How in the hell am I so goddamn misfortunate and unlucky, to be the must FIRST FUCKING PERSON in the entire HISTORY OF FISHING, that has gotten fired for using curse words and drinking whiskey. I couldn't even absorb the fact that my boss was firing me because I couldn't get over the fact that I was possibly the first sailor or fisherman in all of ocean-faring humanity that had gotten fired for doing what sailors and fisherman are guaranteed and known to do best: drinkin' and cursin'
We can also scratch THAT job off the possible reference list as well.
It was at this point in the office of Job Choices Bozeman that the porn music had long since stopped playing in my head, and that I suddenly and swiftly fell deeply into a full blown existential crisis right there in Tracy's office while simply trying to think of a single reference from my last 3 jobs. The unbelievable amount of misfortune, tragedy, irony, and utter insanity of my last 3 job experiences had truly started to sink in, and I was beginning to legitimately lose my temporary grasp on sanity along with my faith in humanity altogether in one great, big, sloppy sandwich of existential fucking crisis.
Allow me to self-diagnose this existential crisis sandwich by peeling off some of the layers of this enormous stinking onion that is in the middle of it all: Either that curse that was put on me a few years ago by a Mexican trainhopping gypsy from New Orleans is proof that curses are indeed fucking real, or either I am the unluckiest son of a bitch on this entire planet that is so very unlucky that I am slowly (or quickly) coming to the conclusion that this entire life is a simulation that is programmed by some sick comedic asshole that specializes in the tragedies of both irony AND misfortune. And though some people in this world call that programmer God or Allah or Jehovah, I call him Jeff. I call him "Jeff in Programming", with same amount of disdain and hatred that Michael Scott refers to "Toby in Human Resources" in the American version of the show "The Office".
(Sidenote: If you do not understand my last reference because you have not watched The Office, then you need to stop reading this book right now, go sign up for one month of Netflix, and spend that entire month binge-watching one of the greatest sitcoms ever made in the history of television: The Office (US Version). Go. Now!)
I digress.
As I collapsed into a full-blown existential crisis while thinking of job references on the second floor employment services office above Montana State Bank, my fantasy-based relationship with Tracy was also about to crumble into an existential crisis as well, based on two very important qualities:
Quality Numero Uno: Tracy and I had no relationship that actually existed outside of my head and a stupid job application form. We had never knocked over all of the filing cabinets, water-cooler, or broken the copying machine with tantric sex. That scenario never existed period.
Quality Numeros Dos: I was about to not only lie, but also commit non-existent adultery to Tracy, thus putting a very real end to a not-very-real relationship.
I stood up from the desk that me and Tracy had never fucked on, and I told Tracy that I had to use the bathroom. And though I did really have to use the bathroom, it wasn't for the purpose of pissing or taking a shit, it was for the purpose of throwing the application in the toilet and sneaking my way down the hallway and out of the employment agency. In which case, that is precisely what I did.
Upon stepping out of the door and back into the parking lot of Bozeman City Bank, I noticed another hot little woman across the street: A dazzling red-headed freckle-faced damsel by the name of Wendy, who promised in her fertile bosom the birth of two-dollar cheeseburgers and loaded baked potatoes. I went inside Wendy's house, and began to have an oral relationship by penetrating my mouth with nearly everything that was offered on Wendy's dollar-value menu.
Stop here, acquire coffee, booze, and cigarettes until I feel like writing again, which may be later tonight, tomorrow morning, or possibly fucking never

Hello everyone! This isn’t my usual kind of post, but man, I can’t stand to see how people just follow every freaking YouTuber out there blindly! In this post, we are going to talk about why I believe Tom Nash may be a fraud, so please do have some patience and read the full post, as I will go through an in-depth research of his past and his claims.
~Very Long Post~
Let’s start by talking about who Tom Nash is & says he is. He is a new & trendy “finance & stock market” YouTuber which has recently passed 150K subscribers after exploding during this retail investor boom, but here is a short video from his YouTube describing himself.
In the video he is claiming he is a former “senior financial analyst” which is very hard to believe in my opinion after doing a lot of research about him.
So let’s go through the 5 reasons I believe he is lying about his past & why you should never take anything any YouTuber out there says for granted and you should do your own research as well:
1) Let’s start with the biggest one, his valuation methods are flawed
Even though he has posted some videos that have panned out, it’s very hard to differentiate good analysis from pure luck in this recent bull market, even monkeys could throw darts at stocks in the past 11 months and be right after the March sell-off.
I was pretty curious of his valuation methods so I joined his channel membership and asked him a direct question, about his DCF valuation, to which he responded bluntly that I am doing things wrong. I also sent him a direct link to a well-known financial institute, where we can see that the most common cash flow used for financial modeling, which is the unlevered free cash flow, implies that you subtract any capital expenditures of the company, which contradicts the way he sees it and is plain wrong, it’s like he uses 2nd grade math, if you subtract a negative number then your cash flow actually increases, which doesn’t even make sense. How can something that costs you money be a positive on the free cash flow?
I’ll let you digest this as I will next show you some of his DCF valuations & how he uses absurd numbers and changes the formulas as he pleases just to reach some insane valuations for companies just to be catchy.
Here are a couple of short extracts from his Salesforce DCF calculations,
Exibit A - everything seems legit until here, now he starts with the biggest mistake in this DCF
Exibit B - I’ll be blunt you can never, ever add the Capex number to a DCF valuation, that literally throws the hole calculations off, but let’s continue…
Exibit C - So, using a discount rate of 6% is also insane, even with the current low interest rates, you should at least discount the average SP500 return, or use the WACC or any other type of metric, which is much safer than picking out a single company, as the SP500 has proven over long-stretches to be a great performer.
But yeah guys, this isn’t the first time he has done these kind of errors, you can see he is using most of these methods in many stock picks which are then spread out to thousands of new investors, who don’t really have the knowledge to test what he is saying. I’m just showing you here a couple of stocks like Dynatrace, Opendoor, Alibaba, Peloton, Salesforce as I showed in the previous video and even Apple that have been analyzed and spread to the public this way.
The other big issue with his valuations is that he is using insane long-term growth rates, as he used a 5% growth rate for Peloton to reach a higher valuation, so can you imagine? If Peloton grows at a 5% rate in perpetuity it means they should more than double the inflation rate every year and is way higher than any GDP growth the US has seen since 1984.
He is also implying that Peloton has no debt on it’s balance sheet, which is 100% false, as you can see HERE, he used the cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities to calculate the short term assets while completely ignoring the over $700M in accounts payable no to mention the other current liabilities which would add up to almost exactly the $1.4B in assets he added to his calculations.
But who knows guys? Maybe he is the real deal, as he has made some correct DCF implications for some stocks like Fortinet and FuboTV, by actually subtracting the Capex finally, though he doesn’t do this in every analysis, not even in the most recent ones while also keeping that big long-term growth rate at 5%, when I myself never use a bigger one than 4%.
Just for an example I took his CRM numbers and popped them up in my spreadsheets, and even given his methods I couldn’t quite get to the same results without manually editing numbers, as those implications resulted in a 7% undervaluation for the stock, while only adjusting the Capex to be a negative on the cashflows and not touching anything else that might be wrong in this DCF, resulted in a 10% overvaluation for the stock.
So, I think if he really was a 10+ years wall street analyst I don’t think he could have made these obvious mistakes.
2) So, Is Tom Nash whom he says he is or is he lying about his past?
HERE is the channel intro for his YouTube (Which I can't even see anymore, but i was lucky to download it a couple of days ago)
As you Can see, I don’t doubt that he actually went to Michigan or that he got and MBA, but I do doubt that all of his Successful “Senior” Financial analyst & consulting Career can be described with only a couple of weak-ass photos of him at an NBA game, or him casually at some kind of a course program as that is exactly what it looks like with the other guys in the back-left of the photo.
Also, are we to believe all of this great financial career ended with him just taking out his fake plant from his office, while also smiling as he threw away at least a decent salary for a gamble on YouTube, which is very hard to do, especially when you are starting, as YouTube doesn’t really help the small guys.
His YouTube journey seemed to have started on the path of exposing guru’s and not financial advice, as he also says in the video, so how did he turn to do financial analysis on YouTube? Seems pretty convenient that he just became an expert in stock analysis as YouTube videos on such things were booming.
You can see HERE, he didn’t make a single stock analysis for the most part of 2020, which seems pretty off, as now most of his videos are on stock analysis, and while his channel was created in 2017, he conveniently deleted all the previous videos, which is another weird move to do.
I also went on a deep internet dive and did a lot of searching about him and I found this video podcast of him.
His main intro in this podcast is that he works as a consultant indeed, from Israel, and also the consultancy job isn’t for a financial company, it’s rather to help people on YouTube grow, so let's look at some extracts from the video:
Exibit I - We can see the main part of the talk is nothing about anything related to his financial past, let’s continue
Exibit II - It seems he started with a gaming channel, not even a fake guru channel, and I also found something about that FB GROUP which isn’t active anymore and all of the videos he made for that have also been deleted as you can see in this post from way back in 2018 as he was teaching how to make money on YouTube well through 2019, and was even giving out free workshop experiences as he was pumping out creator content which is miles apart from financial analysis (BTW, he is using the same freaking photo in his old banner & logo as his current one, just changing the green screen background), just look at his old YouTube banner (YouTube tips & tutorials)
Exibit III - Yeah, it seems he also did some video on how to promote on Reddit, and what comes next guys is literally mind blowing, how much more can this dude lie & hide?
Exibit IV - Well… Nothing to hide then… He even had a Fiverr account which was called tomernash you can see clearly HERE, that is his username, and when I went out to check it out right now, he is using a fake picture & and still might live in Israel, not the US, and on top of this he might not actually even be from Russia, which he has been saying over & over again on his channel. You can SEE he reiterates he is a certified YouTube consultant with no mention of his financial skills or certifications.
And even more, you see what picture he uses as a logo yeah? Well, I did a reverse google search and found the other guy also has a YouTube channel about kinetic cycling.
Maybe he was one of his clients that he reached a deal to use his picture, wtf, the more I dig in the more I am amazed of the lengths this man has gone to reach fame on YouTube.
Exibit V - So… A financial analyst with no sheets, no paper, no nothing, great stuff for a senior financial analyst, I literally can’t take more of this so let’s move to the next reasons
3) Getting in front of the lie?
I believe that’s what he was trying to do to, by making a VIDEO on this very subject in mid-2020 and popping up higher in the search rankings before his channel boomed.
In the video he clarifies that Tom Nash isn’t his real name, but he also restated that he was working for a big consultancy firm as recent as this summer, and that he does shit tons of stuff which is very hard to believe, as usually this big consultancy firms have different departments for different things that he mentioned in the video. You can still find that video on his channel if you are interested
But, by the way, how was he working on that job while also doing hundreds of Fiverr jobs as a YouTube consultant?
He also claims to not offering any courses, e-books or other stuff like this, which is false as i showed in the previous reasons with his past YouTube courses & other stuff, and as you will see in the next reasons, something smells really bad out here.
4) Claims about his past
I also took a deeper dive into more of his past, as you can see in his previous channel cover and info, he had only about 4K subscribers as he was doing guru video reviews on YouTube, but all of a sudden, he became a senior financial analyst from wall street that was living in Israel & doing Fiverr gigs, I don’t know what to say but it seems pretty fishy to me.
I also checked his LinkedIn page, and all of his skills & endorsements seem to be related to his YouTube skills and nothing about finance or the stock market.
But I also found his profile on Quora, where he wasn’t that active but still, well back in 2017 he was posting things about gaming & YouTube while supposedly still working on Wall Street as a financial analyst, and it’s interesting that there is no mention of him following anything related to stocks, finance, economy, accounting, statistics or anything other related to the stock market.
So yeah guys, I guess when you make a new type of video and it boosts your channel from just 10K subscribers all the way up to 150K subscribers, you are willing to push the limits and lie about your past just to keep everything going, as YouTube is a really good way to make money right now.
5) The Transformation
He has had even more channels in the past not only this one, which he has transformed overnight from a YouTube Channel Reviewer to a Guru Reviewer and finally to a financial analyst , as He created a second & third YouTube account called GearlyReviews where he reviews electronics and EuroBall where he only posted 2 videos.
I also searched him through his Reddit posts and only could find things related to marketing & social media, nothing about finance yet again.

So, my personal opinion which I doubt to be wrong guys, if there is a case of a dubious & fishy person out there, he is one of them.

I believe that he has never worked as a senior financial analyst and especially not a stock market, asset or any other type of equity analyst.
Most of his stock picks are small-caps that are highly volatile or a couple of recent high flyers which are very catchy to any YouTube audience.
There are many things wrong about the picture he has painted about himself even though he has gone through a lot to try and erase his past. The fact that there are no mentions of things from the wall street or consulting firm, bad stock analysis and methods, fishy and dubious moves of his YouTube channels and especially fishy things about him being a consultant & analyst in early 2020 while he was already doing YouTube and other stuff back in 2017-2018 really makes me not want to buy his story.
Folks, be careful out there, you can find a lot of YouTubers out there who make more money from their advice giving on YouTube, Patreon or other kind of subscriptions and courses, compared to the actual money they are making or have ever made in the stock market.
So yeah guys, I don’t want to make a final judgment on this guy, but you should consider everything I have showed about him and all the problems with his past & his financial methods & just remember as always in a bull market everyone is an expert & genius, while in a bear market you can’t find any of these people as they all flee.
Later edit: He has currently disabled his Fiverr gigs, learned Russian and deleted the profile image LOL
SEARCH / PROFILE / RUSSIAN
Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion! Have a great day and see you next time❗

How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.

​
Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.
Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.
Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system.
The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.
In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work.
The Real-Life Ewings
Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame.
Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks.
For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.”
Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver.
The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since.
In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973.
Hard Money
The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar.
Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980.
Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere.
For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing.
📷

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; chart by Priceonomics

As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand.
And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market.
But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators.
Soy Before Silver
In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year.
A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price.
While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short).
When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States.
To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market.
In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit.
Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely.
In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.”
“That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.”
📷

The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit: Jeremy Kemp

Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000.
Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision.
“Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press.
Silver Thursday
Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position.
By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply.
Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York.
📷

Source: New York Times

But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork.
“In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.”
According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver.
Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver.
“The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.”
In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it.
This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses.
At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts.
Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range.
Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver.
On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount.
The Aftermath
After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,.
The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled.
Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980)
📷

Source: Trading Economics

In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.”
The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market.
Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point.
Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right.
“Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.”
Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver.
Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense.
“They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another.
p.s. credit to Ben Christopher
​

Long time lurker first time poster, throwaway as my husband knows my main account.
My story is not up for fodder elsewhere.
I’m looking for some outside perspective on a situation that has been ongoing for 4 years now. Aside from this situation my husband was/is an amazing husband and dad. He is hands on, does a lot around the house, he puts us all first and is the type of husband and dad everyone prays for which is why this is so conflicting. 4 years ago my (40F) husband (40M) (together 12 years at that point with 3 kids) quit his job to run a business. I was completely onboard and supportive, said I would work extra if needed to help get the business rolling and gave the go ahead.
Throughout the first year I’d check in and ask if we were making enough for our bills, if I needed to work extra, ask about different things. During that time we planned a trip to the happiest place on earth, went out for lunch at least twice a week and bought a lot of luxuries we never had previously. My husband was in charge of our finances.
There were a few red flags I noticed, the gas company sent an employee out to shut off the gas - I was told it was an oversight and a payment was made right then to stop the disconnection. One of our bank accounts was in the negative and I was told that it was another oversight and money was switched from one account to the other making up for the mistake. I wanted something new for our house I would need to finance and was rejected for my income to debt ratio being too high, was told to pay off the CCs and I would qualify. My husband told me the amount the CCs were, I worked extra and they were paid and still I didn’t qualify. I felt uneasy and again asked if everything was being paid and was assured we were in good financial standing.
Fast forward another year and my husband told me it was time he had to get a job, business was slow, he was bored and so he got a job. I started receiving phone calls of CC debt. The first time it happened, my husband told me it was a scam and showed me the account they claimed I owed a huge amount on- it was at a $0 balance. The next time I just hung up believing it was a scam. The third time I sat my husband down and asked what was going on. I had to beg, plead and cry to get an answer. He told me we had x amount in CC debt, I was shocked. I made a budget to pay off the debt ASAP. As I was working extra to pay it off I asked multiple times if there was more debt or anything else, was promised there wasn’t- I forgave my husband, he said he didn’t want to worry me with finances and to be proud of him and he just didn’t know how to get out of the hole he dug. The CCs were used to pay our regular bills but also to keep up the facade that he was successful. I did scour every single account to be sure he wasn’t gambling or had an addiction I didn’t know about, he was clean there. I also felt guilty that he had shouldered this all on his own and felt that I should take at least some responsibility- I shouldn’t have been so hands off.
I worked extra and the debt was paid off in 2 months (love DOT). I received another call from the original debt collector that started this chain reaction that I still owed x amount- my husband denied it at first, then said he forgot about it and then after begging and pleading for the truth told me it was true and he had actually showed me a bogus account that had $0 balance on it. I told him our marriage was over as I had already said previously that if anything else came up after promising it was only x amount I could not forgive and move forward.
Long story short, as I was working extra to pay the new amounts off, my checks were garnished by the IRS for mistakes made on previous tax returns. It was then I found out that mail was being hidden as well and it could have all been avoided with a payment plan. He also admitted to tampering with our tax returns for extra money. I also found out that it was my name on ALL the credit cards/debts. There were days he spent all day telling me how he was on the phone with debt collectors working things out only to find out a month later that those situations never happened, he was just placating me because he was scared of what I would do. There was one debt that he swore we didn’t owe and he got angry with me for asking him to call the company in front of me. He did so and yelled at the agent and hung up- only to find out he knew we owed the money and was saving face by yelling at an innocent person.
During this time we were in counseling, together and individually. It came out that he is a pleaser and will do anything/say anything not to “get in trouble.” He took psych tests and had evaluations done and continues to do counseling to this day because he wants to be a better man. I took over the finances and we are now debt free and are in great financial standing. I agreed to stay but we live more as roommates on my end. He is upset (but respects my boundaries) that I am not interested in a traditional marriage. I have tried to work through the anger, the bitterness and try to understand how this happened and I do understand why he initially lied and forgive him for that but I can’t get over the repeated lies which spanned over an entire year and only came out because I begged and pleaded and got phone calls and garnishments etc.
I stayed because I do love him as a person, he makes me laugh and we are compatible in every other way and like I said he is an amazing dad and husband other than this nightmare. But I am not romantic with him, I have no interest in that aspect as I feel disrespected and honestly would yell at any other woman about how dumb they are that stayed through something like this. He on the other hand is waiting for the day that I wake up and am his wife again. I don’t foresee this happening, I feel nothing sexual towards him yet I do feel love and smile when I think of him. I’m so conflicted. I don’t want to waste his life staying with me when he could find someone to give him everything he needs, yet at the same time I enjoy his company and all he does for our family and honestly would miss him.
Full disclosure I have NO interest in ever being with anyone else so even if we did separate I’d be single for the rest of my life. We’ve also talked about him leaving and still coming over to see the kids every day and he said he’d still do everything he does now so really there’s no reason to separate if he’ll be here all the time anyway. It would just devastate the kids and take finances away from them.
I don’t know what I’m looking for here, I go back and forth daily. Has anyone been through this and come out the other side intact? The counselor acknowledges my feelings and also acknowledges that my husband loves and adores me and has done everything he can to be a better version of himself and at this point there’s nothing more to be done as he continues to seek guidance and do everything I’ve asked of him.
TL:DR my husband committed financial infidelity and I’ve stayed as a roommate and he wants more. Wondering if I’m being selfish for not wanting more than friendship even though I do love him and he is a wonderful dad.
Edited to make it easier to read

No disclaimer as there is no financial advice here.
Position: 800 @ xx.xx
TL;DR: The squeeze is not required. We can save everybody and shoot for the stars.
My fellow 🐵, retards, a-genius and girlfriend's husband, it is now your time to shine and show the world what eating crayons and sniffing glue has done to your smooth brains.
GME is currently at $52.40, with a market cap of $3.65B. As I math badly I will rule of three and say we need a $34B valuation to reach $483.
I know... $34B seems like a lot of money, but humour me for a second and have look at this.
You have landed on page 6.
For the next few minutes, I will ask you to scroll up the top of the list and gibber if you don't find a name that, in your mind, is worth far less than GME.
Do it, I will wait...
You did your DD but it's still shocking, isn't it?
The squeeze is not required.
Now that it has sunken in:
• This sub has nearly 80000 members.
• Let's say 1% of them read this post, it's 800.
• 10% (trying to be super conservative) of the 800 have ideas about how to improve GameStop business in general and/or make the public realize the true value of the company. That's a dedicated and motivated team of 80 producing at least 1 idea, so 80 ideas.
• 2% of the 80s are actually really good and we end up with a bit more than 1 genius idea.
...and that's all we need.
A single idea to move GME's valuation to a fair region above $34B and come back for our wounded.
Now here is what I'm going to do. I'm going to update this post and the list below with the best 🥜 produced by your challenged cerebra. With a little bit of luck, we get enough traction and get pinned.
So without further ado,

How to ensure the long-term survival of GME – our plan to become an interplanetary species and settle permanently among the stars:

1. u/schokoschlotze: Allowing digital reselling of gamekeys, unlike steam.
   
2. u/Diamond_Hands_Only: They need a online gaming platform like steam so I can buy and stream all my purchased games through them from one spot. GameStop.(u/mouldysandals: GameSpot)
   
3. u/OTHERMIKEtm: VR arcade with memberships. Not everyone can afford the high end computer and peripherals to have the ultimate VR experience.
   
4. u/Purrnie_Sandturds: Digital crypto currency that is accepted at GameStop stores and compatible with popular mobile/app gaming platforms. Should be distributed as a shareholder dividend.
   
5. u/pawn4king: Non shitty esports SaaS. Allowing me to create a local esports tourney and manage it all with the branding of GameStop. Esports gambling and leaderboards included. From local tourneys to large scale corporate events.
   
6. u/wiscowhaaat: Honestly, I’d like to see them as a competitor to twitch, but also become a steam competitor, as another redditor mentioned they would like to be able to sell their digital key. The one thing I hate about GameStop is that they deal too much in figurines and Knick knacks. What they need is the ability to sell ad space, because that’s obviously where the money is based on what we’ve seen out of Facebook and Twitter, etc.
   
7. u/utkant: GameStop should make play cafe, where kids can hang out and play together. Sell candy, soda, pizza, etc. Run local tournaments, regional tournaments, national, world tournaments. Sell best seller games on these places so kids can buy them to have at home if they want to.
   
8. u/Alarming-Event-8788: How about being able to live bet ($) games against each other online?
   
9. u/AvenDonn: Expand into all forms of gaming. Sports, tabletop, roleplaying, arcade (VR), as well as a publisher for video games. Good synergy with a steam competitor, being able to return digital "used" games for store credit or even real money is defintely a strong move.
   
10. u/Walruzuma: Ummm... Pretty sure Ryan Cohen has this covered. I think he's much of the reason for the original DD on the play and why no one is worried about hodling.But what do I know. I'm just a simple cave man who does not offer financial advice. But I do offer advice about shills. Don't tell this guy anything (op: sure mate)
    
11. We like the stonk.
    

Ladies and gentletards, synchronize Flik Flak.
💎👐🚀

It had been centuries since the Luddite Wars but the scars across the badlands had still not fully healed. Twisted spires of half melted rock loomed over glass smooth craters pockmarking a desert of orange sand. Sand that had formed from the rust and decay of thousands of tons of burning steel from long abandoned cities. Though rarer now, sometimes the winds would uncover a new pocket of irradiated debris and scour the barren lands with a new wave of radiation. But, other than a few isolated pockets, the battered and scabbed land - bitter and sterile though it was - no longer could be said to be lethal within hours of entering it. Still, with its nightmarish hellscape and it's metal laced grit battering anyone foolish enough to enter, the area more than earned its moniker of Damnation among the survivors. It was said that only a great fool or a madman would ever ride out into Damnation. The sight of just such a rider emerging from a cloud of rust colored sand caused a stir of dread to pass through those that manned the Wall that day.
Still too distant to make out details even with use of the periscope. In wilder days when the winds were still fierce and still hot with radioactive winds a brave soul might have volunteered or been coerced into exposing themselves from the protection offered by the wall to Damnation and venture on top to use a spyglass. But, as the centuries passed and the desert cooled both the Keepers and the Wall itself succumbed to the ravages of time. The sixteen meter tall line of concrete and steel that stretched from horizon to horizon was now just a stained and crumbling shadow of its former glory. Gaps showing exposing the rebar underneath were evident on both sides but, for now at least, the Wall still held. As for the Keepers themselves? That profession which was once viewed as a vital part of the defense of the remnants of humanity had gradually suffered its own form of social erosion. From a respected job to one that was used as a prison sentence to a refugee camp for society's outcasts. The current Keepers were little more than scavengers attempting to carve out their own niche from the scant protection offered by the Wall. So, they contented themselves to observing the stranger through the narrow eyepieces of the periscopes. Watching and waiting.
The stranger was garbed in a fashion appropriate for desert travel. That is to say with no exposed skin and a full face breathing apparatus. The stranger's long coat and wide brimmed hat both appeared to have once been black but had long since been stained orange by the clouds of dust. Gloved hands gripped the reins of the horse tightly while glassy lensed eyes stared straight ahead while a tube extended from the mask to a chest mounted purification unit. He sat stiffly with no wasted movements and seemingly to sit impossibly still atop the saddle. If not for his upright stance and subtle adjustments to the horse's pace as it navigated the uneven terrain, he might have been mistaken for a dead man. The man was obviously still alive. The horse, however, was not.
As the rider and his mount grew closer it became more and more evident that the horse was, in fact, quite dead. The eyes were gone and were now just hollow pits. Bone could be seen jutting out from the rotting flesh along the nose and exposing a bone in one foreleg and part of the ribs along the chest. Blackened rips along the horse's flank were evident where the flesh had ruptured during putrefaction and fluids now weeped from these open sores. Still, the horse walked. Stiffly and mechanically as if it's decaying flesh had somehow been stretched over an automaton. In a sense, that is exactly what had happened.
"Necromancer," Bri of the Evening Watch swore.
"Are you certain?" Vict asked without bothering to rise from his seat. VIct wore the copper badge used to identify a sheriff. The Wall had long since abandoned the position of sheriff, but not the badge. It was now used to identify the First among the Keepers. A position that Vict had held well into his gray haired years. Positively ancient in Wall terms. One day he knew his reflexes would slow and the hand or knife of some upstart would claim his badge. But, for now, Vict's rule had been a successful one. The few crops that would grow near the wall were plentiful and the people in the Wall were thriving as well as could be expected. They had successfully defended themselves from rival Wall tribes that had seized control of their own gates and, as much as was feasible considering the environs of living within the Wall, his people were content. Vict was considered a strong leader. A wise leader. His gray hairs were a testament to that and as long as he did not make mistakes he would be allowed to grow new ones. For now. "His mount is dead," Bri clarified, "It has been ravaged by the desert already. I do not think anything more than proximal arcana could be keeping it going now."
Vict nodded and, finally, arose from the crudely constructed chair to don his own duster. He disliked walking out on the Damnation side of the wall. But confronting this stranger was his duty as First. But, no need to do so alone.
"Can you tell if he's armed?"
"Not yet," Bri admitted, "The light is bad and he is wearing dark clothing. I think there is an electro-rifle on his saddle but he may have a sidearm as well."
"Good enough," Vict said, "We'll assume he is. Summon the others. I want at least six men joining me at the gate. And bring the coil guns with you."
"Those haven't worked in decades, Vict."
"No need to let him know that," Vict remarked as he donned his hat, "We'll just keep that as a surprise for him."
"On it," Bri said with a grin as he scurried off down the corridor towards the living quarters beyond. Some members of the Watch may need to be woken up, Vict knew. The Watch was rarely called upon these days and some had probably long since forgotten what their shift may actually involve. Only a handful, like Bri, were still diligent enough to show up to perform the most minimum of duties. It was a distressing trend but one that Vict himself knew no way of stopping. People guarded the wall from threats along the corridors and from the goodlands. No one cared to stare into the interior.
Vict sauntered towards the door that opened out into the tunnel of the Gate. He soon found himself standing before the massive doors that served as the final barrier between him and Damnation. Fifty meters behind him were doors that opened up into the Goodlands. Those doors they kept ajar most of the day to allow for ventilation. The doors before him had not been opened in years. He wondered if the mechanisms still worked.
He heard the Watch assemble behind him and, without looking to count their numbers or verify they were even dressed and presentable, he signaled the doorman to activate the giant motors that would ease open the doors. It took several minutes for a crack large enough to admit a man on horseback to open. As the doors swung out and away from him, Vict marched forward. He heard the others following him.
The metallic tang of the desert of Damnation stung his nostrils as he edged closer to the boundary of the badlands. As the gap widened the man and the dead horse came into view.
"That's far enough!" Vict shouted.
To his surprise, not to mention considerable relief, the horse stopped short and the motionless rider did not reach for a weapon. Madness was unpredictable after all. He should not expect a reasoned response from a man performing an unreasonable action.
The rider sat there upon his dead horse and, presumably, studied Vict and the Watch. If he was intimidated by their presence he gave no outward sign of it. Slowly, the man lifted one hand away from the reins and reached towards himself. Vict tensed for a moment but relaxed when he saw the hand was not reaching for a holster but rather angling for the respiration unit on the chest. The stranger flipped a switch to activate the speaker. So, he just wanted to talk. That was encouraging.
"I am looking for someone," the stranger's distorted voice crackled from the speaker, "Did another rider come through here some time ago?"
"No," Vict answered.
"Are you certain?" the rider asked, "It would have been many months ago. I can provide a description."
"These gates have not been opened over ten years," Vict clarified, "He didn't come this way."
The rider cocked his head to one side and then seemed to take in the expanse of the wall slowly.
"Perhaps another gate, then?" he asked, "Do you communicate with the other gates?"
Vict shook his head.
"The tribe that took the next gate isn't exactly friendly to our cause," he explained, "The gates further down the line? They may be more neighborly but it's a long walk to find out."
"I see," the rider said, "Then may I request passage through your gate?"
"Are you here to start trouble?"
"Yes," the man replied.
Vict blinked in surprise. He had expected madness, certainly, but being honest about it was new.
"Don't see as to how it benefits me to allow that then," Vict declared. He then motioned back towards the desert,
"Turn around the way you came."
"I can pay the toll if there is one," the stranger offered.
An intriguing offer, actually. Vict almost considered it. Good coin could be valuable in trade with the cityfolk. Still, if they found out he let trouble in then the cities may also attack in retaliation. Good coin spent no better than no coin when you were dead.
"Tempting, but I'll pass," Vict said, "I told you to turn around. I won't ask again."
The speaker crackled as the man sighed.
"Very well," the rider said, "I had hoped to do this another way. But if you insist."
Quicker than he thought would have been possible, the stranger's hand flashed into the interior of his coat. It was out again in an instant and an object was hurled at him. Vict retreated half a step and reached for the knife on his own belt. To his surprise, the object landed gently on the sand near his feet. It was not an attack after all. Curious, he stepped closer and looked closer. He felt the blood drain from his face. It was not a weapon, no, but it was definitely still a threat.
"You're a marshal!" Vict hissed angrily.
"And you are interfering in my lawfully sworn duty," the Stranger replied, "Will you grant me passage?"
This was bad. The badge that laid upon the desert floor before him was not like Vict's own. It was not a piece of metal. This was an actual biolocked minicomp. This badge could only be carried by those who had the full weight of the Restored Pan-Continental Alliance behind them as well as the Oligarch itself. Each badge was said to be a miniature mainframe that could be used to open any digital lock, access any account, and take control over any computer system if needed. If it still used a computer, it would yield to the badge if the wielder wished it. If that wasn't bad enough, if it was handled by anyone other than the biolocked owner it would administer a lethal discharge. Still, Vict hesitated.
"We don't really have a lot of use for the PCA this far out in wastes," he remarked, "Figured they forgot all about us."
"Just focused on other more pressing matters at the moment," the marshal clarified, "Cooperation now would be in your best interest."
Vict recognized a threat when he heard one. What's more, now that the badge had been thrown out, he was certain the Oligarch itself was listening in on them. The last thing the Wall needed was a cybernetic army marching down upon them.
"Yeah, well," Vict said as he stepped slightly to one side. Not quite yielding passage but not completely blocking it either.
"I still have to consider the people beyond," he explained.
"You have my oath my quarrel is not with you nor the people of the wall or the points beyond," the man said formally, "My bond is the apprehension of a singular individual."
"Do you swear," Vict asked, "That you will cause no harm to anyone other than your current assignment?"
"I make no such guarantees," the stranger countered, "I am entrusted to enforce the Oligarch's law. However, if you insist, I swear I will not exercise more force than is deemed necessary to achieve this goal and I will not interfere with any matters that I may observe that are outside the scope of my immediate objective regardless of their legal stature within the PCA save for Class II felonies or above. Such acts would supersede any oath I am authorized to provide."
Legal speak for "if I see someone being murdered, raped, or dismembered I'm legally required to interfere. But I won't stop people from lying, cheating, gambling, or partaking of illegal substances." Considering the authority the badge was offering, it was actually a very generous concession. A little too generous and one that immediately raised suspicions.
"And what do you expect in return for such an oath?" he asked.
"You have armed men behind you," the stranger noted, "Are they available if I require the assistance of a posse?"
"They're armed," Vict confirmed, "And trained for what it's worth. But I need them here."
"I did not ask that they be removed from service indefinitely," the stranger said, "I am asking if I have need of additional gunmen if you will provide them."
"And if I saw no?"
"Your gate is mechanized," the marshal pointed out, "Presumably computerized as well. As would be many of your wall's defenses."
"So I either take your oath and cooperate willingly or you take it by force?" Vict replied before grunting, "And if I tell my men to fire?"
"Then you simply have to hope they kill me first before I shoot any of them," the stranger said, "Otherwise I will have their corpses start shooting at you."
Vict sighed.
"You also offered payment before?" he reminded the stranger.
"An offer that was conditional on me not having to reveal my badge," the stranger said, "What is your response?"
"Your oath then," he said, "I need something to show we enacted our duty to protect the interior."
"Then you have it," the stranger said, "I swear to harm no one beyond this gate save in purview of my lawfully sworn duty and the scope of my current quarry."
There was a chirp from the badge. Vict assumed this meant the Oligarch had acknowledged the oath. If memory served, the oath of a marshal was considered a law in of itself. The badge would make certain its wielder stayed true to this pledge. With lethal force if necessary.
The rider came closer and now Vict could smell the rotting flesh as well as see it. The horse did not breathe, he noted. It moved silently and robotically with no external cues from its rider.
"Could you hand that back to me, please?" the rider asked while pointing at the fallen badge. Vict hesitated.
"It won't sting you as long as I am present and have given you authorization to touch it," the marshal assured him. Vict could not afford to lose more face in front of his men. This encounter had been humbling enough as is. He picked up the silver bar. Nothing happened. The surface was cool to the touch but did not otherwise harm him. If not for the dancing lights just below the metallic surface he might suspect it was a forgery. He handed it back to the rider and hoped he did not appear to be in a hurry to be rid of the thing.
"Thank you," the rider said and looked through the tunnel ahead.
"What town is beyond that gate?" he asked.
"The closest one is the town of Clean Air," Vict told him and shrugged, "It's an older settlement. Mostly just a few farmers and a saloon. Not much happening there. But you can get a bed for the night if you need it at the saloon." The rider nodded and started to ride forward. Without knowing quite why he did, Vict decided to add, "If you continue west and follow the ridge line you can find the Healing Valley.."
The horse froze mid step.
"What did you say?" the rider's speaker crackled.
"If you ride a few days west along the ridge line you will find the Healing Valley," Vict said, "At least, that's what I've heard. Everyone is heading there these days. Maybe your man is well."
"These Healing Valley," the rider asked, "What is it?"
"I don't know, really," Vict admitted, "Some new commune or settlement. I don't know. They say there is some sort of spring there or something that has a healing arcana. All I know is that the lands are very fertile and they say even mutants can drink from these waters and be renewed."
"You said it is to the west along the ridge line?"
"Yes," Vict said and, before he could add more detail, the dead horse surged forward into a gallop. The horse and rider went through the gate into the good lands at a pace no normal steed could hope to maintain. The horse kept this breakneck pace up without tiring as it flew past the settlement of clean air and angled towards the ridgeline beyond. As the sun sank the horse galloped on without showing other signs of fatigue. The rider, meanwhile, reached up with one hand to unbuckle the straps of his mask. Moving with the horse and anticipating each movement as if they were somehow joined together, he managed to free himself from the confines of the mask and breathed unhindered for the first time since leaving the Citadel across the wastes.
By the time the sun rose again the horse was beyond even his ability to sustain. The leg bones had cracked until the wear of racing along the rocky path at full speed and ruptures had appeared all across its flanks. He eventually led it to the side of the road and into a small gully between some stones. There he released his grip upon its body and allowed the flesh to resume its normal decaying processes. It was of no concern anyway. He could tell he was in the right place.
"Kincaid's here," he subvocalized. The implant just below his right ear heard him all the same and the Oligarch's response was immediate.
"Have you made visual contact?"
"No," he admitted, "But I can see evidence of his work. There is a valley below me. Lush fields of green with crops too large to grow by natural means."
"You are certain this is his work?"
"There's no death," he said, "I can't sense any at all around me. Even the soil. There is no decomposition taking place. The ground itself is essentially sterile. The only thing keeping these crops alive is his will." The Oligarch was silent for a moment. That in itself was troubling. It's processes worked many times faster than a human's. What could cause it to hesitate?
"Repositioning a satellite," the Oligarch explained for him, "And initial telemetry indicates you may have a bigger problem than we thought. That valley extends for several kilometers to the north and south of you. I estimate its total area to be in excess of 400 square kilometers."
"His power is still growing," the marshal concluded grimly.
"Even our worst case projections did not account for this," the Oligarch confirmed, "The area of influence is enormous and for him to sustain that much power without arcanic blowback is unheard of. This should not be possible with the resources available to a human mind."
"He's not exactly human anymore," the rider reminded the Oligarch.
"No," it confirmed, "He is not. Still, the organic strain should be crippling. He must be using his own power to sustain himself. That should be creating a feedback loop."
The rider nodded.
"Maybe the valley is a way of bleeding off the excess?" he suggested.
"Plausible," the Oligarch said, "But that creates a scaling issue. At some point he will be exerting more just to keep the blowback from consuming him than even his own enhanced vitality can maintain."
"When will that happen?"
"Uncertain," the Oligarch admitted, "I already stated this does not fit within current models. There is more."
"Don't tell me," the rider said, "The zone of no death means that my own arcana will be diminished."
"Or absent entirely," the Oligarch admitted, "Given that he cannot sustain this level of involvement indefinitely I believe this most likely indicates he is aware of you and that you are walking into a trap."
"So what do you suggest?" the rider asked, "Wait it out? See if he collapses and then go in?"
"The sphere of influence has already corrupted the local ecosystem and is likely impacting residents as well," the Oligarch said, "If this is allowed to progress unabated the damage is likely irreversible and may have a cascading effect on neighboring ecosystems."
"So if I don't walk into the trap," the rider translated, "We may have a full on ecological meltdown that will cost millions of lives. If I do go in and try to do damage control, I'm going in without my arcana?"
"You could return to the Wall and recruit more allies," the Oligarch suggested.
"No good," the rider said, "Once we go in then Kincaid can twist them too. They are all living people. Can you send a drop ship in?"
"If I could spare one do you think I would have sent you?"
"No," the rider agreed and sighed, "All right, into the trap I go."
The stranger returned his attention to the dead horse beside the road. In the short time he had been distracted a swarm of insects and all manner of flying and burrowing creatures had descended upon the animal. It's hide now was a virtual living carpet of creatures feasting upon the first real meal they had had in who knows how long. Before this he was certain it was only the power of Kincaid's aracana that had been keeping them alive. Alive but starving. Well, if Kincaid didn't know he was here before this had just sent up a big flare. Grimacing, he reached into the swarm of insects to retrieve his rifle from the saddle.
Walking into the valley below was surprisingly uneventful. No one rose to challenge him nor did any feral creatures attempt to accost him. If he didn't know better, he would think this was just another agricultural sector in the PCA. In fact, now that he was closer, the crops closest to him appeared to be the standard genetically engineered high yield wheat hybrid grown in the AgSec. Only a full meter taller. As he drew closer he caught the sounds of someone in one of the fields ahead of him. Curious, he slung the rifle's strap over his shoulder and checked both pistols were firmly in their holsters. Cautiously, he approached the source of the noise.
He found himself stepping into a small clearing among the dense grains occupied by an elderly man wearing what appeared to be tattered clothing that had a homespun look to it. The trousers were frayed at the ends and had been patched so many times and with such a variety of fabrics it was difficult to determine the original coloring. A brown vest covered his chest and left his arms exposed. The man was facing away and appeared to be attempting to cut down a swath of the grain using a sickle held awkwardly in the man's left arm. This was despite the fact that the man's right arm appeared to be more than twice the size of his left and had an uneven lumpy appearance as well as several gnarled scars across the surface. Holding his right arm stiffly, the man swung the tool. The stalks tumbled to the ground around him and the man cursed again.
"It's growing back too damned fast!" the man shouted at last.
"What is?" the stranger asked, "The wheat?"
The farmer wheeled around with his blade held high as if preparing to strike. The stranger, though armed, held his hands out to the sides in a gesture of peace. The farmer looked him up and down as if evaluating him before deciding to lower his blade.
"Who are you?" the farmer asked.
"Just a friend passing through," the stranger replied, "I heard you back here and thought you might need some help."
"Friend, eh?" the farmer asked with a snort, "You don't look like any friend I know." The stranger nodded his head towards the crops.
"What seems to be the problem?" he asked.
The farmer rolled his eyes back towards the recently felled grains and snorted.
"Look for yourself," he instructed, "See those stalks I just cut? Watch em."
The stranger did. It did not take long to notice what the farmer wished him to see.
"They are regenerating," the stranger declared.
"That's one way of looking at it," the farmer snarled, "Being a damned nuisance is another. There is supposed to be a path here to get back to my house. I can't clear it faster than it tries to grow back. I can't even leave those grains on the ground too long or they start sprouting as well."
"Can you burn a path?"
The farmer shook his head.
"Doesn't work," he explained, "Fires just go out and the plants heal themselves. You're new, aren't you?" The stranger nodded.
"I just came from the Wall," he explained, "I heard of a place called the Healing Valley and thought I would see it for myself."
"Healing Valley?" the old man spat, "Guess now that the Minister's here calling it plain old Coppertown ain't good enough for the likes of them."
"The Minister?"
"Look, son," the old man said patiently, "I ain't got all day to spend here talking to the likes of you. Now, you want to talk then you can help. You reap and I'll bag 'em."
The stranger seemed to consider arguing but finally nodded. He unclipped the respirator and mask from his chest before unslinging his rifle. He then doffed his coat and hat before bundling the gun and smaller items inside the confines of the coat. The stranger could be seen clearly now and the old man found himself staring at a younger man with sharp features and a hawkish beak of a nose. The stranger's hair was black and full unlike the old man's stringy gray locks. The hair was kept brushed straight back in what appeared to be a choice of convenience rather than aesthetics. The stranger's face was neither cruel nor kind nor even particularly handsome. It was just an everyman face. So why did the old man feel so certain this stranger who called himself a friend was hiding something behind those dark eyes?
"Name's Yacob," the farmer introduced himself, "What do they call you?"
The stranger didn't reply. He simply picked up the sickle and started hacking at the grains with quick and efficient motions. He did not have the skill nor the technique of an actual farmer, but he made up for it in speed. Yacob found himself hobbling along after the man while shoveling fallen grains into a sack.
"So, not big on names, eh?" Yacob remarked, "That's fine. I'll just call you Cat for the moment."
"Cat?"
"Because you should mind what curiosity did to one of those," Yacob snapped, "You just keep cutting and I'll answer your questions. But only until we get to the porch. Once we reach the house the deal's done."
"How far is the house?"
"Not far else I wouldn't have made the offer. So stop wasting time and ask what you came for. I know you ain't here to admire wheat."
"Fine," the stranger said, "Tell me about the Minister." Yacob shrugged.
"Not much to tell you," he said, "He showed up here about a year ago. Big talking man like you. Wouldn't tell us his name either. Just started talking like he was a preacher man. Going on about the rightful place of man and unshackling ourselves from the burden of slavery. Real 'make the world a better place' nonsense. Folks didn't really listen to him at first. But then the miracles started happening."
"Miracles?" the stranger grunted as he cut, "Like what sort of miracles?"
"I was getting to that!" Yacob snapped, "Don't rush me! Now when I say 'miracles' I don't mean loaves of fishes falling from Heaven. I mean like Bailey Moskva being able to walk again. Or Happy Tam regaining his vision. People in the town just started getting better. Healthier. But it didn't stop there. The crops were dying. Only they just stopped. Vegetables that were dying on the vine the day before got better. That kind of miracle."
The stranger, who was just now starting to breathe heavy from the exertion, only nodded his understanding and continued to hack away at the grains. He used to tool more like a machete than as a harvesting tool but, again, it was still better progress than Yacob could make on his own.
"In the early days we all thought that, well, maybe this Minister was onto something," Yacob went on, "He kept talking prosperity and we were feeling it, ya kin? Even the most piss poor farmer was having a bumper crop. All these lame folks who worked in the mines were getting healed up. Even the sick and the dying were up and walking around. It seemed like the good days would never end and people were praising the Minister and all his bollocks."
"But not you?" the stranger asked between gasps of exertion.
"Oh I fell for it to," Yacob said, "Me a hardcore believer, that I was. I even stood there smiling proudly as he took my Abby into his inner circle."
"Abby?" the stranger asked.
"My daughter," Yacob admitted with a sigh as he bent over to pick up more of the fallen wheat, "My little girl. She was such a delight to me and looked after me after the passing of my Elsie. All of twenty two years old and when the Minister said he chose her I was proud as a peacock."
The stranger slowed his frantic hacking.
"Something happened?" he asked, "With Abby?"
"Bah!" Yacob said, "Never you mind. That's none of your concern. I told you what you wanted to know. Now ask something else!"
"Why didn't you ask him to heal your arm?" the stranger asked.
Yacob froze in place and blanched.
"What?" he stammered.
The stranger paused and turned to point at the engorged and irregularly shaped right arm held limply at Yacob's side.
"Why didn't you-?"
"I heard what you said!" Yacob shouted, "Stand aside! I don't want any more of your help! Be off!"
The stranger didn't move.
"I meant no offense," he said, "It just appears that you have had a-"
The stranger moved his hand to indicate the swollen right arm. Yacob, seeing the movement, misinterpreted and jumped backwards while yelping. To the stranger's surprise, the right arm moved. Not only did it move on its own, he heard a faint whirring sound as it did. Yacob howled in pain and dropped to the ground. Blood trickled from an open wound in the arm that wasn't there before.
"Now you see what you made me do?" Yacob asked between clenched teeth, "That metal cuts right through!"
The sickle fell from the marshal's limp fingers. Those bumps. He recognized them now. They were in the approximate position and size for servo motors. Which could only mean one thing.
"That's a cybernetic arm," he said out loud.
"'Course it it!" Yacob snapped, "I lost the real one sixteen years ago in the mines! The mechasurgeon fitted me with a new one. Never really gave me any problems until this skin started growing over top of it."
Of course, the marshal realized. He should have realized. With the field of the arcana flooding the area even old wounds, healed wounds, would be affected. Growing a new arm would be impossible with the prosthetic in place. But escasing it with a new layer of skin was still possible. He felt sickened at the thought of living flesh growing over the metal arm and getting trapped inside the motors and actuators. The skin stretching and tearing only to heal over and do it again and again. He suddenly understood the bitterness of the farmer. He picked up the sickle, turned, and hacked at the vegetation with renewed vigor. Kincaid would pay for this. He would pay.
"Wait," Yacob said, "I told you-"
"I'm getting to your house," the marshal growled, "That was the agreement. You answered your questions and now I am doing my part."
He paused for a moment to lower the blade but only for as long as it took to unbutton the cuffs of his sleeves and to roll them up. He then resumed his relentless hacking and slashing. After a few minutes of labor he found himself staggering free from the dense vegetation and standing upon a wooden platform. Blinking in confusion, he lowered the tool and realized he was standing on the porch that had been his original objective. He dropped the sickle and turned to go. He found his way blocked by a cursing Yacob limping after him while dragging the marshal's coat and rifle in his wake with his one functional arm.
"Slow down!" Yacob gasped as he joined the marshal on the porch, "I can't keep up with your-"
Yacob'e eyes grew wide as he froze in mid step. The marshal looked in the direction of the man's gaze to see if he could find what had alarmed the man. It took him a moment to realize it was the fine parallel lines of the scars running along the marshal's own forearms. The lines, usually too faint to see, were an angry red from his recent exertion.
"It's just an implant," the marshal said between gasping breaths, "I'm a cyborg like yourself."
"Like me nothing," the farmer counted, "Them's battle implants. Are you a deserter?"
That was an interesting question.
"Do you get many deserters here?" the stranger asked as he retrieved his property from the limp grip of the older man.
"A few," Yacob admitted with a shrug, "Mostly PCA. Sometimes Oceania. Which are you?"
"I'm . . . not a deserter."
The old man snorted.
"I'm not," the marshal said, "It's complicated."
"Well," the old man said with another shrug, "At least now I know how you were able to push yourself like that. I hear those implants really juice you boys up."
The marshal didn't answer. Instead he turned to take his leave.
"Wait," Yacob said as he placed a restraining hand on the marshal's chest, "I didn't mean to yell at you earlier. It's just . . . it's not a good idea to talk about the Minister like that. Not out in the open. Not everyone sees him the way I do."
"I understand," the marshal said and then stepped to one side, "I have inconvenienced you enough for one day."
"You know him, don't you?" the old man asked as the marshal stepped up beside him, "That's why you were so keen to ask me those questions. Is that why you're here? You're after him?"
"Thank you for your hospitality, Yacob," the marshal replied, "I should go."
"Wait," the old man pleaded, "You should know about something if you plan on facing him."
"What is that?" the marshal asked while turning to face the smaller man. With a pained expression on his face, Yacob lifted his mangled prosthetic. The marshal heard the whir of servos fighting against the flesh coating. The farmer held up his arm and showed the unlined palm of his hand to the marshal. There was a peculiar bulge there.
"This," Yacob said just before a lightning bolt erupted from the palm of his hand and tore through the marshal's chest only to explode out the backside. The marshal crumbled to the porch with a look of confusion still painting his features.
Tune in for our next exciting episode!

Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time
​
The Bubble
It’s February of 2021, and let’s be completely honest: We’re in a bubble. It’s kind of like 1999 but not the same. In 1999, interest rates were much higher. Today, they are nearly zero. In some countries, they are even negative. From a long-term perspective, this is very bad.
The Federal Reserve is completely to blame for this. Their policies are entirely reckless, and officials refuse to acknowledge what is going on here. The Coronavirus hysteria caused by the media and enabled by officials made the crash last summer the worst man-made disaster in the history of our financial system. The Great Depression was caused by over-speculation and a lack of regulation in an emerging financial system. The Great Recession was caused by greed and fraud (strangely, no one is in jail for this). This market collapse was caused by elected officials and the fed, who got trigger-happy and cut rates to zero back in the spring of 2020.
Whatever we wind up calling the burst of this bubble is to be determined. It will, however, be entirely manmade because the fed refuses to acknowledge the speculative behavior currently going on in SPACs, Cryptos, Penny Stocks, and anything else that serves as a legal Ponzi scheme for inflating the bubble. Even real, dividend-paying stocks have gotten way overvalued in some sectors. Also, since the fed has no plans of raising rates within the next two years (so they say for now, at least), if you’re searching for yield, you have nowhere else to look than the equities markets or one of these legalized forms of Ponzi schemes. It’s extremely unfair to conservative or retired investors looking for an honest return on their savings. This all is actually why it is a great time to look at Dogecoin, as I will get to in a moment. So long as rates are near zero, the bubble will continue to go on for longer and longer. And while it continues, people will constantly look for the next big thing.
For How Long?
Now, this may sound all doom and gloom, but that’s not my point. One day the bubble will burst, but I’m not making a prediction of when that will happen. Anyone making up dates for when the bubble will burst is either clueless or a con artist. No one knows when this bubble will burst. It could be weeks, months, or even years. One thing is for sure, the bubble will not burst just because things are overvalued. That’s not how bubbles work.
There needs to be a catalyst to burst the bubble. A major military conflict. An unexpected move or comment by the fed (raising rates, calling out the bubble for what it is, etc.). Another nationwide lockdown. I can go on with examples, but a little selloff here and there (August 2020) that causes the financial media to lose its mind is not enough. Just because you claim the bubble is bursting isn’t enough either. If you follow the media, you will get burned over and over again. That’s how it works. They want you to go to their sponsors for help, and once they burn you (sell you gold, overcharge you for poor investments, etc), you’ll come back to them hoping to figure things out. It’s a shell game. When the bubble burst, it will happen extremely fast and unexpectedly. There’s nothing wrong with playing the bubble, but you need to be mindful of when it ends because once the music stops, there will be a mad rush for the exits. You don’t want to be stuck holding the bag because everything will get crushed when the bubble burst. Even the blue-chip stocks that pay solid dividends will get hammered.
Fundamentals Don’t Matter (For Now)
In this bubble environment, fundamentals don’t make sense and, quite frankly, they don’t matter. You can argue back and forth all day long about whether something has a practical future or whether something is overvalued. I’m not here to do that about Dogecoin, Bitcoin, or any other crypto. The same could be said about Penny Stocks right now. (Hint: virtually all of these companies are way overvalued). You can find tons of articles of that nature, and I’m not likely to change your preconceived notions anyway. If we look at all the irrational bubbles that have occurred lately, you are a complete fool if you believe that TSLA or BTC is worth nearly a trillion dollars. It’s worth nowhere near that valuation.
How do I determine what something is worth, and who do I mean? It is called the market cap. In layman’s terms, that is where you take all the stock shares and multiply it by the share price. And I’m not recommending buying or selling TSLA or BTC, I’m just pointing out that these valuations are absurd. Does that mean they will not pass 1 trillion dollars? Of course not. There’s a very reasonable chance they do pass a $1 trillion market cap. That sounds absurd to write but it’s true. When the bubble bursts, you better believe fundamentals will be back in play. This disconnect can’t last forever. But it can go on for a while. And while it lasts, we all want to make some money
A Quick Word About ALL Cryptos
While I don’t believe Cryptocurrencies are going anywhere (as in, people will always buy and sell them), I also do not see any APPLICABLE future in them other than trading with other people. In fact, the biggest use I see of Cryptocurrencies is for illegal and untraceable transactions. The government will do all they can over the next several years to bring in lost tax revenue and track transactions better, but that’s the extent to which Cryptos will have relevance. How do I know this? Because the federal reserve, which is backed by the taxing authority of the US Government and the might of the US military, isn’t about to let some alternative currency usurp the US dollar. How do you think we can afford to provide all this government stimulus to fight Covid? If you think about this, you will see why other countries are much worse off. They must play by our rules, while we get to export our inflation to other countries because they must use the USD to buy commodities on the international exchanges (look at what happened when Saddam tried to circumvent this). If they print more money, their currency gets devalued. That’s why as bad as things look, relatively speaking, the US isn’t in terrible shape compared to the rest of the world.
If your financial future is so married to Bitcoin, ask yourself this: what happens if your account gets hacked? Who will you call? Who will make you whole again? If you have a brokerage account with legitimate stocks, there are regulations in place. There is the SIPC which protects again brokerage failure. With Bitcoin, you are completely gambling. This lack of regulation and lack of price stability means that there is no viable path to Bitcoin being a legitimate currency. Does it mean people can buy and sell it? Of course. But if you are in the cult of believing that Bitcoin is the future world reserve currency, you need to get your head examined.
Gold and Silver con artists have been trying for decades for people to get on this alternative currency train. At least gold and silver have some practical industrial applications. And hundreds of years of history on its side. Crypto isn’t anything but something people agree upon as having value. Why do I point this out? Because the one thing you need to do is separate yourself from what you think you know about Crypto and Blockchain, etc. While it all sounds cool and revolutionary, it really doesn’t matter. The US government could easily create their own form of Crypto that gives them more control. The decentralized part just doesn’t jive with our current global hegemony. If you don’t understand this, you should think more and read less. Once you accept this, you can start to see all Crypto as fundamentally worth the same: virtually nothing. The technicals, however, are why we want to look at Dogecoin.
Relative Valuation of Dogecoin
Now that you understand a little more background into where we are, I believe Dogecoin is extremely undervalued. Why? It’s simple. Relative valuation. This is one of the easiest and most efficient ways to compare investments. Ok, so maybe this isn’t really investing anymore; it’s gambling. Still, we can apply the same concept. Imagine two companies: they are in the same industry and have similar margins, earnings, growth prospects, etc. One company is valued at $50 billion and costs $120 per share, and one is valued at $85 billion and costs $80 per share. Which one would you invest in? Of course, you would invest in the one that is worth $50 billion at $120 per share. The cost per share means absolutely nothing. It is psychological.
Now, you say Dogecoin isn’t on par with Bitcoin and that where I’m going with this isn’t a fair comparison. Go back and read the last section. That’s why I wrote about the practical applications of Cryptocurrencies in general. None of that matters. The only thing that matters is the general sentiments shared by people that buy and believe in Cryptocurrency. So, let’s look at the current valuations:
Bitcoin – Price $40,500, Market Cap $755B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
Dogecoin – Price $.05, Market Cap $4.4B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
Now, I’m not saying Dogecoin is worth what Bitcoin is. I’m not even saying it's worth half or a third of Bitcoin. Who really knows? No one does. You certainly cannot say for certain that one is better than another. One is more “established” and has more name recognition. What I am saying is this: if Dogecoin goes to $1, it will have a market cap of just over $85 billion. Even at Bitcoin’s current market cap, that’s just over 1/10 of its value. And that isn’t even pricing in more appreciation of Bitcoin’s value over time. This means I see tons of room for Dogecoin to run. (I know some will mention dilution via minting of new coins, but that’s another discussion and not entirely relevant to the points I am trying to make in this piece.)
Could Dogecoin match Bitcoin? That sounds absurd, but let’s look just for fun: if Dogecoin were to have the same market cap as Bitcoin, that means it would have a current price of $8.55. So, what am I saying here? You must know the range of possibilities (within reason, if that even exists anymore) before you start thinking about price targets. To say Dogecoin is going to $100 is just absurd; things need to be put in the proper context.
Why Dogecoin?
Using relative valuation, I believe you could make a case for any Crypto. Will they all run to Bitcoin’s level? Of course not. The last question is why Dogecoin? This is the most important one that we have to answer before deciding on buying Dogecoin. The answer is simple: hype and name recognition. If I look at the most valuable cryptocurrencies by market cap, Dogecoin is number 12. I have taken an informal survey of probably 100 people over the last two weeks. I showed them the top 15 Cryptocurrencies by market cap to see which they were familiar with: Stellar, Binance Coin, Cardano, Polkadot, XRP . . . almost all of these were completely unheard of. But, somehow, they have valuations of 2-3 times Dogecoin.
Dogecoin has a few things going for it. First, hype. Elon Musk and many other prominent celebrities are pilling in. Mark Cuban has said he’d buy it over a lottery ticket. That alone can help aid a very quick lift off. Second, the name Dogecoin is very easy to remember and a trendy thing. What the heck is Cardano anyway? XRP? I mistakenly called it XPR before I edited this piece. And if you are still hung up on the practical use of Dogecoin or other Cryptos, you are missing the point of this piece entirely. Look at the story behind Bitcoin. An anonymous person online created a decentralized platform for money movement or something like that. What? How in the world did that idea ever take traction? It’s just like people online arguing over which Penny Stock is the next big thing. Neither person is right, but the perception is really all that matters.
Third, stimulus checks will be hitting within weeks or months. This naturally promotes price inflation when people have more dollars chasing few goods. People will inevitably pile into whatever they think is the next great thing. Dogecoin has momentum right now. And this brings me to number four.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, FOMO is very powerful right now. There are people all over the world that know people who have won big money in this bubble. Penny stocks, GameStop, Bitcoin, and many others that you can name. How many people do you personally know that have won big in the lottery? Probably none. This is a unique time in history. People have won big in this market and are looking for the next thing.
Dogecoin is something that could pick up steam quickly. It could blow up overnight. It may not, and that is the risk you take. At the end of the day, it’s just money that you can always make more of. Life-changing money is worth the risk when you find the right risk-reward ratio.
Do your due diligence, but also think ahead to a scenario that you could imagine. Would you be that surprised if Dogecoin reached $1? And if it did, would you be surprised if it started running towards multiple dollars? $1 is a psychological number that typically leads to a further breakout. The current market cap suggests this is all very possible. Now imagine getting in at four or five cents.
Disclosure: Long Dogecoin with Diamond Hands. No positions in any other things mentioned. -BJ