Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
USC Dornsife	8-30	National	54	39
YouGov	8-29	National	47	41
Morning Consult	8-29	National	50	44
Morning Consult	8-29	National	52	42
USC Dornsife	8-29	National	52	40
Emerson College	8-28	Massachusetts	69	30
Trafalgar Group	8-28	Michigan	45	46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-28	National	48	38
Franklin & Marshall College	8-27	Pennsylvania	49	42
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-26	National	47	38
Ipsos	8-26	National	44	37
Benenson Strategy Group	8-26	National	50	39
Rasmussen Reports	8-26	National	46	45
YouGov	8-26	National	50	41
Roanoke College	8-26	Virginia	53	39
Ipsos	8-26	National	47	40
Change Research	8-26	Wisconsin	49	44
Change Research	8-26	Arizona	49	47
Change Research	8-26	Michigan	50	44
Change Research	8-26	Florida	49	46
Change Research	8-26	National	51	43
Change Research	8-26	North Carolina	48	47
Change Research	8-26	Pennsylvania	49	46
Trafalgar Group	8-25	Wisconsin	45	46
Public Policy Polling	8-25	Delaware	58	37
Public Policy Polling	8-25	New York	63	32
Public Policy Polling	8-25	Florida	48	44
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Léger	8-24	National	49	40
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-24	North Carolina	49	46
Public Policy Polling	8-24	Texas	48	47
Trafalgar Group	8-24	Louisiana	37	54
YouGov	8-24	National	50	39
TargetSmart	8-24	Ohio	47	46
YouGov	8-23	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-22	National	52	43
Morning Consult	8-22	National	51	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-22	National	49	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Pennsylvania	48	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Florida	49	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	North Carolina	44	46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Michigan	50	38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Wisconsin	49	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Arizona	47	38
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-21	National	46	38
Civiqs	8-21	Wisconsin	51	45
Civiqs	8-21	Pennsylvania	51	44
Civiqs	8-21	Michigan	49	46
Civiqs	8-21	Ohio	47	47
DKC Analytics	8-21	New Jersey	52	33
Saint Anselm College	8-20	New Hampshire	51	43
Muhlenberg College	8-20	Pennsylvania	49	45
Global Strategy Group	8-20	Texas	47	45
Echelon Insights	8-20	National	51	38
Echelon Insights	8-20	National	53	39
Data for Progress	8-20	National	50	41
Morning Consult	8-20	National	47	36
Morning Consult	8-20	National	49	39
Trafalgar Group	8-19	Minnesota	46	46
Ipsos	8-19	National	48	40
Ipsos	8-19	National	45	36
ALG Research	8-19	Louisiana	43	50
Rasmussen Reports	8-19	National	48	44
YouGov	8-19	National	50	40
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-18	National	45	39
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Wisconsin	47	47
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Florida	49	49
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Pennsylvania	50	46
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Arizona	48	51
GQR Research (GQRR)	8-18	Michigan	52	43
Léger	8-17	National	51	35
Morning Consult	8-17	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-17	Wisconsin	49	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-17	National	48	40
Landmark Communications	8-17	Georgia	44	47
YouGov	8-17	National	49	38
YouGov	8-17	National	50	41
YouGov	8-17	Texas	40	47
ABC News	8-17	National	54	44
ABC News	8-17	National	53	41
ABC News	8-17	National	53	41
SSRS	8-16	National	50	46
YouGov	8-16	National	52	42
East Carolina University	8-16	North Carolina	46	46
NBC News	8-16	National	50	41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
With the conclusion of both major parties’ nominating conventions, pollsters scrambled into the field to conduct polls of swing states and the national race. The result has been a slew of high quality pollsters releasing their numbers on Wednesday as well as today, which paint a picture of the electorate right after the candidates are expected to have received a temporary convention bounce.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
Quinnipiac University	9-3	Florida	48	45
Quinnipiac University	9-3	Pennsylvania	52	44
Monmouth University	9-3	North Carolina	48	46
Monmouth University	9-3	North Carolina	47	45
Monmouth University	9-3	North Carolina	48	46
Rasmussen Reports	9-3	Pennsylvania	47	48
Harper Polling	9-3	Minnesota	48	45
USC Dornsife	9-3	National	50	42
USC Dornsife	9-3	National	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	52	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	52	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	52	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	53	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	52	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	40
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	40
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	46
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	51	41
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	40
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	46
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	42
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	49	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	43
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	48	44
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	45
Morning Consult	9-2	Wisconsin	47	45
Fox News	9-2	Wisconsin	49	41
Fox News	9-2	North Carolina	49	45
Fox News	9-2	Wisconsin	50	42
Fox News	9-2	North Carolina	50	46
Fox News	9-2	Arizona	49	40
Fox News	9-2	Arizona	49	39
Ipsos	9-2	National	43	38
SSRS	9-2	National	51	43
Harris Insights & Analytics	9-2	National	46	40
Morning Consult	9-2	National	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	National	51	43
Morning Consult	9-2	National	50	43
Morning Consult	9-2	National	51	44
Morning Consult	9-2	National	52	42
Morning Consult	9-2	National	51	43
Quinnipiac University	9-2	National	52	42
Qriously	9-2	National	46	41
Opinium	9-2	Florida	50	43
Opinium	9-2	Wisconsin	53	39
IBD	9-2	National	49	41
YouGov	9-2	National	51	40
Rasmussen Reports	9-2	National	48	45
Monmouth University	9-2	Pennsylvania	49	46
Monmouth University	9-2	Pennsylvania	49	45
Monmouth University	9-2	Pennsylvania	48	47
Suffolk University	9-2	National	46	41
Ipsos	9-2	National	47	40
USC Dornsife	9-2	National	51	42
USC Dornsife	9-2	National	51	41
Opinium	9-2	National	53	39
Suffolk University	9-2	National	49	43
Selzer & Co.	9-2	National	49	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	9-1	National	49	40
Landmark Communications	9-1	Georgia	40	47
East Carolina University	9-1	North Carolina	46	48
Public Policy Polling	9-1	Michigan	48	44
Expedition Strategies	9-1	Montana	44	48
University of Nevada, Las Vegas	9-1	Nevada	44	38
Morning Consult	9-1	National	52	43
Morning Consult	9-1	National	51	43
Morning Consult	9-1	Texas	47	48
Morning Consult	9-1	Florida	49	47
Morning Consult	9-1	Pennsylvania	49	45
Morning Consult	9-1	National	51	43
Morning Consult	9-1	North Carolina	49	47
Morning Consult	9-1	Ohio	45	50
Morning Consult	9-1	Minnesota	50	43
Morning Consult	9-1	Florida	50	45
Morning Consult	9-1	Georgia	49	46
Morning Consult	9-1	Michigan	50	44
Morning Consult	9-1	Georgia	46	47
Morning Consult	9-1	Colorado	51	41
Morning Consult	9-1	Wisconsin	52	43
Morning Consult	9-1	Michigan	52	42
Morning Consult	9-1	Arizona	52	42
Morning Consult	9-1	Colorado	51	41
Morning Consult	9-1	Texas	46	47
Morning Consult	9-1	Minnesota	50	42
Morning Consult	9-1	Ohio	45	49
Morning Consult	9-1	North Carolina	49	46
Morning Consult	9-1	Pennsylvania	50	44
Morning Consult	9-1	Arizona	45	47
USC Dornsife	9-1	National	51	41
USC Dornsife	9-1	National	51	41
Léger	9-1	National	49	42
AtlasIntel	9-1	National	49	46
Emerson College	8-31	National	51	48
RMG Research	8-31	National	48	44
Global Strategy Group	8-31	Pennsylvania	53	43
Global Strategy Group	8-31	Pennsylvania	50	42
Public Policy Polling	8-31	Georgia	47	46
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-31	National	47	38
GQR Research (GQRR)	8-31	Pennsylvania	52	43
Trafalgar Group	8-31	Missouri	41	51
USC Dornsife	8-31	National	53	40
USC Dornsife	8-31	National	52	40
John Zogby Strategies	8-30	National	45	42
John Zogby Strategies	8-30	National	48	42
USC Dornsife	8-30	National	54	39
USC Dornsife	8-30	National	53	39

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - 538's runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
NBC News	8-16	National	50	41
SurveyUSA	8-15	Connecticut	52	32
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-14	California	61	25
Data for Progress	8-14	National	51	41
Data for Progress	8-14	National	52	39
YouGov	8-14	Massachusetts	61	28
Global Strategy Group	8-14	National	52	42
Marist College	8-14	National	53	42
Fox News	8-13	National	49	42
Léger	8-13	National	46	--
Léger	8-13	National	47	39
Pew Research Center	8-13	National	53	45
Morning Consult	8-13	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-13	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-13	National	50	43
Harper Polling	8-13	North Carolina	45	44
Morning Consult	8-13	National	51	43
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	8-13	Mississippi	43	53
SurveyUSA	8-13	California	56	28
Rasmussen Reports	8-13	Wisconsin	55	42
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-12	National	44	40
Ipsos	8-12	National	47	38
Ipsos	8-12	National	43	37
Ipsos	8-12	National	56	43
Ipsos	8-12	National	58	42
SurveyUSA	8-12	Kansas	41	48
YouGov Blue	8-12	National	51	45
Rasmussen Reports	8-12	National	49	43
Critical Insights	8-12	Maine	45	38
YouGov	8-12	National	49	39
Morning Consult	8-12	National	49	40
Change Research	8-12	National	50	44
Change Research	8-12	Wisconsin	47	43
Change Research	8-12	North Carolina	47	48
Change Research	8-12	Arizona	45	44
Change Research	8-12	Florida	50	44
Change Research	8-12	Michigan	48	43
Change Research	8-12	Pennsylvania	48	44
MassINC Polling Group	8-12	Massachusetts	63	27
Emerson College	8-11	Pennsylvania	53	46
Emerson College	8-11	North Carolina	49	50
Emerson College	8-11	Arizona	53	46
Critical Insights	8-11	Maine	44	36
Critical Insights	8-11	Maine CD-2	39	38
Critical Insights	8-11	Maine CD-1	49	33
Marquette University Law School	8-11	Wisconsin	50	45
Marquette University Law School	8-11	Wisconsin	50	46
Monmouth University	8-11	National	52	39
Monmouth University	8-11	National	51	41
Emerson College	8-11	Minnesota	51	49
SurveyUSA	8-11	Georgia	46	44
Public Policy Polling	8-10	North Carolina	49	46
Rasmussen Reports	8-10	North Carolina	47	48
HIT Strategies	8-10	North Carolina	47	37
HIT Strategies	8-10	Georgia	44	40
Trafalgar Group	8-10	Arizona	44	46
RMG Research	8-10	National	45	37
RMG Research	8-10	Maine	50	39
Georgetown University (Battleground)	8-10	National	53	39
OH Predictive Insights	8-10	Arizona	49	45
Strategies 360	8-10	Nebraska CD-1	46	48
YouGov	8-10	Wisconsin	49	43
YouGov	8-10	Michigan	47	43
YouGov	8-10	Pennsylvania	50	41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
YouGov	8-9	Pennsylvania	49	43
YouGov	8-9	Wisconsin	48	42
Global Strategy Group	8-7	National	49	45
Zogby Interactive	8-7	National	46	46
Zogby Interactive	8-7	National	46	46
Zogby Interactive	8-7	National	46	45
Trafalgar Group	8-7	Texas	43	49
Public Policy Polling	8-7	Kansas	43	50
Research Co.	8-7	National	48	38
EPIC-MRA	8-7	Michigan	51	40
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-5	National	43	40
RMG Research	8-6	Iowa	40	41
Quinnipiac University	8-6	South Carolina	42	47
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Maine CD-1	61	30
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Maine CD-2	44	45
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Kentucky	41	50
Quinnipiac University	8-6	Maine	52	37
David Binder Research	8-6	Michigan	51	41
David Binder Research	8-6	Wisconsin	53	42
David Binder Research	8-6	Minnesota	54	36
David Binder Research	8-6	Iowa	49	43
DFM Research	8-6	Oklahoma	36	56
Data for Progress	8-6	Maine	53	43
Data for Progress	8-6	Iowa	45	46
Data for Progress	8-6	Maine	49	42
Data for Progress	8-6	North Carolina	49	45
Data for Progress	8-6	North Carolina	46	44
Data for Progress	8-6	Iowa	42	44
Data for Progress	8-6	Arizona	47	44
Data for Progress	8-6	Arizona	45	43
Bluegrass Voters Coalition	8-5	Kentucky	34	55
Morning Consult	8-5	Indiana	38	55
Bluegrass Voters Coalition	8-5	Kentucky	45	52
Ipsos	8-5	National	54	45
Ipsos	8-5	National	56	44
Marquette University Law School	8-5	Wisconsin	52	44
Marquette University Law School	8-5	Wisconsin	49	45
Rasmussen Reports	8-5	National	48	45
Monmouth University	8-5	Iowa	46	48
Monmouth University	8-5	Iowa	45	48
Monmouth University	8-5	Iowa	47	47
YouGov	8-5	National	49	40
Zogby Interactive	8-5	North Carolina	44	40
Zogby Interactive	8-5	Florida	43	43
Zogby Interactive	8-5	Ohio	43	41
Zogby Interactive	8-5	Pennsylvania	44	43
MRG Research	8-5	Hawaii	56	29
Hodas & Associates	8-5	Wisconsin	52	37
Hodas & Associates	8-5	Michigan	52	40
Hodas & Associates	8-5	Pennsylvania	50	44
University of California, Berkeley	8-4	California	67	28
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-4	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-4	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-4	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-4	Texas	47	46
Morning Consult	8-4	South Carolina	44	49
Morning Consult	8-4	Kentucky	35	59
Morning Consult	8-4	Alabama	36	58
Fox News	8-3	National	48	41
Public Policy Polling	8-3	Michigan	49	43
Global Strategy Group	8-3	Wisconsin	51	42
Emerson College	8-3	Montana	45	54
Center for Marketing and Opinion Research	8-3	Ohio	45	41
YouGov	8-2	Georgia	46	45
YouGov	8-2	North Carolina	48	44
Emerson College	7-31	National	53	46
YouGov	7-31	National	49	40
Data for Progress	7-31	National	51	42
Data for Progress	7-31	National	50	43
Public Policy Polling	7-31	Minnesota	52	42
University of New Hampshire	7-30	New Hampshire	52	39
University of New Hampshire	7-30	New Hampshire	44	46
University of New Hampshire	7-30	New Hampshire	53	40
IBD	7-30	National	48	41
Virginia Commonwealth University	7-30	Virginia	50	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Wisconsin	45	35
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Michigan	49	37
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Arizona	46	38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Pennsylvania	48	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	North Carolina	43	42
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-30	Florida	48	41
Franklin & Marshall College	7-30	Pennsylvania	50	41
Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)	7-30	North Carolina	46	48
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	7-30	Florida	50	46
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-29	National	55	45
Optimus	7-29	National	47	40
Optimus	7-29	National	38	31
TargetPoint	7-29	Michigan	49	33
Rasmussen Reports	7-29	National	48	42
Monmouth University	7-29	Georgia	47	47
Monmouth University	7-29	Georgia	47	48
Monmouth University	7-29	Georgia	46	49
YouGov	7-29	National	49	40
Zogby Interactive	7-29	National	44	40
Ipsos	7-29	National	57	43
Ipsos	7-29	National	57	43
Change Research	7-29	Pennsylvania	48	46
Change Research	7-29	Florida	48	45
Change Research	7-29	National	51	42
Change Research	7-29	Arizona	47	45
Change Research	7-29	Michigan	46	42
Change Research	7-29	Wisconsin	48	43
Change Research	7-29	North Carolina	49	46
SurveyUSA	7-28	Washington	62	28
Morning Consult	7-28	Wisconsin	49	44
Morning Consult	7-28	North Carolina	46	49
Morning Consult	7-28	Michigan	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Minnesota	49	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Florida	47	48
Morning Consult	7-28	Ohio	42	50
Morning Consult	7-28	Virginia	52	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Pennsylvania	48	44
Morning Consult	7-28	Texas	43	50
Morning Consult	7-28	Georgia	47	49
Morning Consult	7-28	Colorado	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Arizona	45	47
Colby College	7-28	Maine	50	38
Colby College	7-28	Maine CD-1	55	35
Colby College	7-28	Maine CD-2	45	42
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Montana	45	50
Public Policy Polling	7-28	North Carolina	49	46
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Alaska	44	50
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Maine	53	42
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Georgia	46	45
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Colorado	54	41
Public Policy Polling	7-28	Iowa	47	48
DKC Analytics	7-28	New Jersey	51	33
MassINC Polling Group	7-28	Massachusetts	55	23
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	51	42
Morning Consult	7-28	National	48	44
Morning Consult	7-28	National	49	44
Morning Consult	7-28	National	49	43
Morning Consult	7-28	Minnesota	47	44
Morning Consult	7-28	Texas	47	45
Morning Consult	7-28	Michigan	52	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Georgia	47	46
Morning Consult	7-28	North Carolina	47	47
Morning Consult	7-28	Ohio	45	48
Morning Consult	7-28	Pennsylvania	50	42
Morning Consult	7-28	Virginia	52	41
Morning Consult	7-28	Florida	49	46
Morning Consult	7-28	Wisconsin	50	43
Morning Consult	7-28	Colorado	52	39
Morning Consult	7-28	Arizona	49	42
ALG Research	7-27	South Carolina	45	50
Trafalgar Group	7-27	Minnesota	49	44
brilliant corners Research & Strategies	7-27	South Carolina	43	50
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-27	National	55	45
Kaiser Family Foundation	7-27	National	47	38
Marist College	7-27	North Carolina	51	44
AP-NORC	7-27	National	46	34
YouGov	7-26	National	51	41
YouGov	7-26	Michigan	48	42
YouGov	7-26	Ohio	45	46
Marist College	7-26	Arizona	50	45
SSRS	7-26	Michigan	52	40
SSRS	7-26	Arizona	49	45
SSRS	7-26	Florida	51	46
Gravis Marketing	7-25	Pennsylvania	48	45
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	52	43
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	51	41
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	49	40
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	53	38
Echelon Insights	7-24	National	50	37
Gravis Marketing	7-24	Michigan	51	42
Gravis Marketing	7-24	Wisconsin	50	42
Data for Progress	7-24	National	49	43
Data for Progress	7-24	National	49	43
Fox News	7-23	Michigan	49	40
Fox News	7-23	Minnesota	51	38
Fox News	7-23	Pennsylvania	50	39
Global Strategy Group	7-23	National	50	39
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-23	National	51	43
GQR Research (GQRR)	7-23	National	55	44

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet (though Nate's been sharing some results from it, so it may be coming out soon^TM ), but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race.
Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. Where the same poll applied different screening methodologies (All Adults, Registered Voters, Likely Voters), the result is shown as the most restrictive (Likely Voters > Registered Voters > All Adults). This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
Fox News	7-19	National	49	41
ABC News/The Washington Post	7-19	National	54	44
Gravis Marketing	7-18	South Carolina	46	50
Public Policy Polling	7-18	Michigan	51	44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-16	Kentucky	41	53
OH Predictive Insights	7-16	Arizona	49	44
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape	7-17	National	49	41
Alaska Survey Research	7-17	Alaska	48	49
Monmouth University	7-15	Pennsylvania	51	44
NBC News	7-15	National	51	40
Ipsos	7-15	National	47	37
Quinnipiac University	7-15	National	52	37
YouGov	7-15	National	47	39
Rasmussen Reports	7-15	National	47	44
Monmouth University	7-15	Pennsylvania	52	42
YouGov	7-15	National	49	40
Morning Consult	7-15	National	47	39
Change Research	7-15	Michigan	48	42
Change Research	7-15	Wisconsin	48	42
Change Research	7-15	Pennsylvania	50	42
Change Research	7-15	North Carolina	47	46
Change Research	7-15	Florida	50	43
Change Research	7-15	Arizona	51	45
Change Research	7-15	National	51	41
Gravis Marketing	7-14	Texas	44	46
Gravis Marketing	7-14	Florida	53	43
Civiqs	7-14	Montana	45	49
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	7-13	National	48	39
RMG Research	7-13	National	46	39
YouGov	7-13	Missouri	42	49
Public Policy Polling	7-13	Montana	42	51
GQR Research (GQRR)	7-13	Nebraska CD-2	51	44
John Zogby Strategies	7-12	National	49	42
Gravis Marketing	7-12	Georgia	45	48
YouGov	7-12	Arizona	46	46
YouGov	7-12	Florida	48	42
YouGov	7-12	Texas	45	46
University of Texas at Tyler	7-12	Texas	48	43
GBAO	7-10	North Carolina	48	46
GBAO	7-10	Arizona	47	46
GBAO	7-10	Iowa	45	48
Morning Consult	7-10	National	48	39
Auburn University at Montgomery	7-10	Alabama	40	55
Data for Progress	7-10	National	51	41
Public Policy Polling	7-9	North Carolina	50	46
Public Policy Polling	7-9	Alaska	45	48
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-8	National	43	39
Rasmussen Reports	7-8	National	50	40
Ipsos	7-8	National	43	37
Opinium	7-8	National	52	40
Research Co.	7-8	National	49	40
YouGov	7-8	National	49	40
PureSpectrum	7-8	National	47	37
Public Policy Polling	7-7	National	53	42
Trafalgar Group	7-6	Pennsylvania	48	42
Public Policy Polling	7-6	Maine	53	42
Trafalgar Group	7-3	Florida	45	45
YouGov	7-2	National	45	40
Monmouth University	7-2	National	53	41
YouGov	7-2	Texas	44	48
Public Policy Polling	7-2	Texas	48	46
University of Montana	7-1	Montana	37	52
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	7-1	National	55	41
Gravis Marketing	7-1	Arizona	45	49
Public Policy Polling	7-1	Michigan	50	44
Ipsos	7-1	National	46	38
Harris Insights & Analytics	7-1	National	56	44
Public Policy Polling	7-1	Colorado	56	39
IBD	7-1	National	48	40
Data Orbital	7-1	Arizona	47	45
YouGov	7-1	National	49	40
Morning Consult	7-1	National	47	40
Change Research	7-1	National	49	41
Change Research	7-1	Arizona	51	44
Change Research	7-1	Florida	50	45
Change Research	7-1	Michigan	48	43
Change Research	7-1	North Carolina	51	44
Change Research	7-1	Pennsylvania	50	44
Change Research	7-1	Wisconsin	51	43
East Carolina University	6-30	North Carolina	45	43
Suffolk University	6-30	National	53	41
Pew Research Center	6-30	National	54	44
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	6-30	Missouri	48	46
Siena College	6-30	New York	57	32

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - this model isn't active yet, but it's the original model from Nate Silver that debuted in 2008 and really kicked off this genre of race prognostication. For now, here's the polling aggregates that they've set up in lieu of a now-cast (which is likely not returning to the model this year). Will likely also include Senate and House projections like in past years.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

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General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (September 2nd, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 16, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (Aug 9, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (July 19, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

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