The challenges and uncertainty of the next few months have NFL teams uneasy.
No scouting combine. No private workouts. No facility visits.
But the Senior Bowl will happen.
Hundreds of scouts, coaches, and execs from around the NFL will congregate this week in Mobile, Ala., to scout 130-plus prospects throughout the week and conduct interviews behind the scenes. The Senior Bowl is always an important week every year, but with the ambiguity of this year’s draft process, this week carries substantially more weight than usual.
Here are 10 key prospect storylines for the week of Senior Bowl practice:
10. A lot on the line for Georgia quarterback Jamie Newman, Michigan wide receiver Nico Collins and other prospects who opted out of the 2020 season.
NFL teams are evaluating the players who opted out of the 2020 college football season on a case-by-case basis. The big-time talents such as Oregon’s Penei Sewell or LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase won’t be greatly affected because of their skill set and what they already put on tape.
However, many opt-outs still had questions to answer at the college level in the eyes of scouts and were unable to do so by their decision to sit out the 2020 season. Georgia QB Jamie Newman is near the top of that list. He put himself on the NFL map with his productive 2019 campaign at Wake Forest, finishing second in the ACC in total offense per game (286.8) and total touchdowns (32). He transferred to Georgia for his senior year, but opted out during summer camp. Newman is a sturdy, mobile passer, but his 2019 film showed shaky pocket presence and undeveloped passing reads. With improvements as a senior in SEC play, some around the league thought he could turn himself into a top-100 draft pick. Now, Newman needs a strong week to secure his status as a mid-round pick.
Michigan had a pair of opt-outs who will be under the microscope in Mobile: CB Ambry Thomas and WR Nico Collins. Both prospects are well-liked by scouts and were considered possible top-100 picks over the summer. And they could still be drafted that high, but it will take a productive week of practice for that to happen. Thomas is a tough bump-and-run corner while Collins has top-50 talent with his size and ball skills. However, wide receiver and cornerback are crowded positions and not having any 2020 tape is a missed opportunity for both.
What is the rust factor? Are they in football shape? The opt-outs will have more questions to answer than the rest of the players in attendance.
Other FBS players who didn’t play a down in 2020 due to opting out: Wake Forest WR Sage Surratt, Oregon CB Thomas Graham, and Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike.
9. Can the prospects who didn’t opt out, but failed to impress this season, find redemption in Mobile and regain their footing in the eyes of scouts?
Though incredibly challenging, the 2020 season helped boost the draft stock of a number of players. However, there were a few seniors who struggled in their final collegiate season and the Senior Bowl is an opportunity to get back on track.
After leading the SEC in rushing yards per game (103.8) in 2019, Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill entered the 2020 season with high expectations, especially with the Mike Leach hire as the Bulldogs head coach. But Hill butted heads with the new coaching staff, which led to a suspension and his decision to leave the team early in the season. For Hill, his team interviews and how he responds to NFL coaching throughout the week will directly influence where he is drafted.
Georgia had arguably the most talented secondary in college football last season and based on the 2019 film, CB DJ Daniel was the most consistent and productive of the group. However, he was lost in the shuffle behind Tyson Campbell, Eric Stokes and others as a senior, managing only nine tackles and one pass break-up in limited snaps. The Senior Bowl will be a great opportunity for him to revive his draft stock.
8. NFL scouts are always wary of the one-year wonders, but several prospects can help verify their late-blooming legitimacy by continuing the momentum during Senior Bowl week.
Every year, we see senior prospects who enjoy a late-career arc that boosts their draft stock in the eyes of NFL evaluators. It is easy to be skeptical of the late bloomers who went from undrafted afterthoughts to possible top-100 picks. But the Senior Bowl can help teams feel better that the improved play will be sustained at the next level.
A former defensive lineman, Cincinnati OT James Hudson rode the bench as a redshirt freshman at Michigan in 2018 before transferring to Cincinnati in 2019, sitting out almost the entire season due to NCAA rules. He finally had his chance to stay on the field as a redshirt junior this past season and played at a high level as the Bearcats starting left tackle. With only 719 career snaps at tackle, the body of work isn’t there, but his tape is highly intriguing. Hudson’s combination of light feet, strong hands and outstanding balance is an intriguing starter pack for an offensive tackle prospect. With a strong week in Mobile, he might not get out of the top 40 picks.
Talking with scouts over the summer, Houston EDGE Payton Turner wasn’t a name that ever came up in conversation regarding draftable defensive ends. Fast-forward to the present and he is now a likely top-100 pick based on his productive senior season. In five games, he led the team in tackles for loss (10.5), sacks (5.0) and forced fumbles (one). He battled nagging injuries over his college career and was out of position under the previous coaching staff, which contributed to his delayed rise on the NFL radar. Playing the “Bandit” position, Turner is high cut and there are some balance issues, but his violent hands, huge wingspan and unyielding effort lead to production.
With Tee Higgins off to the NFL and Justyn Ross sidelined with a neck issue, the Clemson wide receiver situation (aside from Amari Rodgers) had more questions than answers entering the 2020 season. Enter redshirt senior WR Cornell Powell, who had zero starts over his first four seasons as he was lost on the depth chart. But he seized the opportunity and matured at the right time, accounting for 90-plus receiving yards in five of the final six games of the season. Though he might not be explosive as a route runner, Powell is a top-flight competitor with the balanced athleticism and ball skills to make in-air adjustments look routine. He has gone from not on the radar to a mid-round draft choice.
📷Marvin Wilson battled a knee injury throughout the season and sat out the final three games. (Melina Myers / USA Today)
7. Injuries often complicate evaluations throughout the draft process. Several Senior Bowl players such as Florida State’s Hamsah Nasirildeen and Auburn’s KJ Britt battled medical issues during the season, making this week all the more important.
Disclaimer: We don’t know which of these players we will work out due to their recent injuries. But if they can get on the field, it will be important for them to shake off the rust and compete. A trio of Alabama players will be in Mobile, but aren’t expected to play due to injuries: WR DeVonta Smith, OG/C Landon Dickerson, and RB Najee Harris.
The top-ranked senior safety entering the season, Florida State DS Hamsah Nasirildeen suffered a torn ACL against Florida in November 2019 and was sidelined for almost a full year as he worked his way back. He played in two games in 2020 (13 tackles, one interception), but there isn’t much there for scouts as he knocked off the rust. Nasirildeen is an oversized safety and should be seen as a hybrid defender, similar to Jeremy Chinn last season. Whether a box safety or weakside backer, he has the athleticism and range (when healthy) to be an impactful player.
Another Seminoles defender who had a tough 2020 season due to injuries, Florida State DT Marvin Wilson battled a knee injury throughout the season and sat out the final three games. He was considered a second- or third-round prospect over the summer, but the top 100 is no guarantee for him right now. Wilson flashes NFL starting traits, but can he do enough during the draft process to get back in the early rounds? Performing at full health in Mobile will be a start.
One of the better downhill defenders in this class, Auburn LB K.J. Britt played in only two games this season due to a thumb injury. He isn’t an every-down linebacker at the next level due to his limitations in coverage, but he flows fast and physically to make plays in front of him. Britt has the football character that coaches will love.
Though several players battled injuries in 2020, it was the opposite for Ohio State LB Justin Hilliard. After spending most of his first five seasons in Columbus on the sidelines, he was able to stay healthy and on the field in 2020, giving him a chance at a pro career. One of Ohio State’s captains, Hilliard has terrific play speed with the smooth change-of-direction skills to make plays versus the run and the pass. Talent is not the question for the sixth-year senior.
The ultimate medical wild card is Tennessee OG Trey Smith, although his lung-related issues won’t be something that evaluators will be able to critique simply by watching Senior Bowl practices. His draft grade will come down to the doctors and medical staff.
Several accepted their Senior Bowl invites but will be unable to participate due to injuries: Ohio State OC Josh Myers, Washington DB Elijah Molden, Georgia FS Richard LeCounte and others.
Vanderbilt DL Dayo Odeyingbo recently suffered a torn Achilles and will be sidelined indefinitely. A really tough injury for one of the best senior defensive line prospects in the class and the No. 71 overall prospect on my draft board.
6. Which small-school prospect takes advantage of the Senior Bowl stage versus top competition?
Despite years of college tape, non-FBS players have a chance to rise in Mobile due to the uptick in competition. At this time last season, small-school players such as Lenoir-Rhyne’s Kyle Dugger and Southern Illinois’ Jeremy Chinn were promising prospects and their performance at the Senior Bowl directly led to both being drafted in the second round.
There are nine non-FBS prospects on the Senior Bowl roster and how they perform during the week of practice will weigh heavily in the eyes of NFL teams. This year’s Senior Bowl has added importance for small-school prospects, considering most programs in the FCS or lower divisions canceled their fall seasons.
Central Arkansas is one of the few FCS programs that was able to patch together a fall season, which allowed CB Robert Rochell to get on the field (27 tackles, three passes defended in seven games). A former high school wideout, his technique and awareness are all over the place, but he is a long, agile athlete with above-average speed. His athletic traits should stand out on this type of stage, which is why he is the favorite to be the first non-FBS prospect drafted in April.
South Dakota State WR Cade Johnson is a really intriguing slot prospect. Though undersized, he can separate with speed and is as tough as a two-dollar steak. This is an old-school comparison, but his tape (especially versus Minnesota last year) gave me flashbacks of former Cleveland Browns receiver Dennis Northcutt. NFL scouts think he has a chance to break into the top 100 picks.
Grambling State OG David Moore will measure under 6-foot-2 during weigh-ins, but he has terrific length (almost 34-inch arms) and athleticism, carrying his 320-pound frame well. His flexible hips and agile feet help him hold up in space and on the move, but how will he adjust to the power and speed of the defenders in Mobile? It won’t be a surprise if Moore’s name catches fire as the week of practice goes on.
Three other small-school offensive line prospects worth watching: Northern Iowa OT Spencer Brown, North Dakota State OT Dillon Radunz and Wisconsin-Whitewater OG/C Quinn Meinerz. Brown was a defensive lineman in eight-man high school football, moving to offensive tackle when he arrived at UNI. Scouts question his power potential and pad level, but he has the feet to mirror and brings competitive energy, which will give him a boost during the evaluation process. Radunz is a physical run blocker, but there are some questions in pass protection, making one-on-ones during practice vital to his evaluation. He is a prospect trying to get himself into the top 100 picks. Meinerz isn’t quite on the same level as former Division-III interior prospects such as Ali Marpet or Ben Bartch, but he is physical in the run game and plays quickly in pass protection. Scouts want to see him line up at center and guard this week.
Four other non-FBS prospects in Mobile: Illinois State DS Christian Uphoff, North Carolina Central CB Bryan Mills, Northern Iowa DL Elerson Smith.
📷Alex Leatherwood will be the top offensive line prospect at the combine. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
5. All 32 teams are searching for offensive line depth – who are the top offensive line prospects who will draw NFL eyes?
With Oklahoma State’s Tevin Jenkins and Landon Dickerson not participating this week, the top offensive line prospect in Mobile is Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood. Although some teams have him graded as a guard, the Tide lineman will be playing only left tackle during Senior Bowl practices this week.
Ranked No. 38 overall on my top-100 board, Leatherwood is patient and strong in pass protection, relying on his hands to cover up edge speed. He has some stiffness in his lower body and his punch timing in space needs work, which is why some see his long-term future inside at guard. But one-on-ones during Senior Bowl practices will be a great opportunity for him to prove them wrong.
With Ohio State’s Josh Myers not expected to participate due to an injury, Oklahoma OC Creed Humphrey is the top-ranked center at this year’s Senior Bowl. The No. 74 overall prospect on my board, Humphrey is an outstanding technician with the grip strength, intelligence and reflexes to tie up defenders. His wrestling background and pedigree will be catnip for NFL offensive line coaches.
One of the more interesting Day 3 developmental left tackles is East Carolina OT D’Ante Smith. At 305 pounds, he is explosive with outstanding feet and vines for arms (35 1/2-inches). Although still raw in areas, his tools are a left tackle starter kit that NFL coaches will want to develop. Middle Tennessee OT Robert Jones is another mid-round prospect whom NFL scouts are buzzing about. He is a well-built blocker with physical hands and enough movement to finish the mission. Scouts have mentioned to me that they hope to see him take reps at tackle and guard.
Looking for a mid-rounder with five-position versatility? Ole Miss OL Royce Newman is a player with whom you need to familiarize yourself. He isn’t an overwhelming power guy, but he does a great job staying alert and square to his target. With his initial quickness and tight hands, scouts believe he can play tackle, guard or center – and that versatility will bump him up draft boards.
4. Mac Jones is QB1 on the Senior Bowl roster, but how do the other five quarterbacks stack up?
The NFL is a quarterback league, making it no mystery when the position drives the headlines in the lead-up to the NFL Draft. Although this year’s Senior Bowl roster lacks a Justin Herbert-like talent, Alabama’s Mac Jones is the clear top quarterback in Mobile. Stacking the five quarterbacks after him is where it gets interesting.
Of the five, Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond has the most intriguing tools. He can rip off beautiful throws with velocity or extend plays with his legs, creating impressive highlights. Unfortunately, his lowlights are tough to ignore and his decision-making and timing need continued work. I’m not convinced he can sustain the highlights and take that next step, but the tools will have teams intrigued.
Mond is on the Panthers’ roster along with Mac Jones and Jamie Newman.
On the Dolphins’ roster, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is very similar to Jalen Hurts from a year ago – dual-threat quarterbacks with competitive toughness, but inconsistent passing skills. The former Oklahoma quarterback used the Senior Bowl to help vault into the second round for at least one team (Eagles). Ehlinger will have a tougher time breaking into the top 100 picks, but he will be appealing for a team looking for that style of quarterback.
Also on the Dolphins’ roster is Notre Dame QB Ian Book and Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks. Book is more well-liked by NFL teams than most in the media and fans realize. His mobility is the key to his evaluation, and despite his inconsistent downfield reads and touch, his confidence and winning résumé go a long way with evaluators. Book is a mid-to-late rounder for me, but some around the league, they see a quarterback who will go in the top four rounds. Franks’ NFL future was on life support, but he transferred from Florida to Arkansas as a senior and resuscitated his stock. A large-framed passer, he has a cannon for an arm and some beautiful deep shots on film, although consistency remains an issue.
Opinions are all over the place on these five quarterbacks from the third round to the seventh round. Maybe a week at the Senior Bowl can help clarify things.
3. Who is this year’s Terry McLaurin or Antonio Gibson? The prospects who are being underrated right now, but will be “risers” and more well known after the Senior Bowl?
There are a number of candidates for this category so I will give you a handful of my favorite Senior Bowl prospects who aren’t talked about nearly enough right now, but I expect that to change very soon.
Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington: The top senior defensive tackle in the 2021 NFL Draft, Onwuzurike plays with a relentless motor and nonstop violence. Out of position as a nose tackle in Washington’s odd front, he is a prototypical three-technique and blockers are going to struggle to handle his quickness and effort during one-on-ones.
D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Western Michigan: A former state champion sprinter in high school, Eskridge would be talked about as a top-50 draft pick if he played at Alabama or Ohio State. With his ability to turn small plays into big plays, he is the definition of a playmaker due to his explosive speed and ability to mix his speeds as naturally as you or I breathe.
Aaron Robinson, CB, UCF: An Alabama transfer, Robinson had 20 passes defended in 22 games the past two seasons. He is quick-footed with the turn-and-run skills to stay in phase and make plays downfield. His toughness, athleticism and inside/outside versatility is an attractive combination that will have teams considering him in the top 50 picks.
Richie Grant, DS, UCF: Robinson isn’t the only UCF defensive back who is being underrated. Grant has outstanding speed to run the alley or play both sidelines in coverage. His natural ball skills and toughness are starter-level traits, which is why he should be one of the first five safeties drafted in April.
Jabril Cox, LB, LSU: The NFL is looking for linebackers who can stay on the field in any situation, and Cox qualifies due to his athleticism and awareness. He has the upper-body strength to detach from blocks and the lower-body movements to hold up in space when asked to drop in coverage. Cox could be a riser this week if he hangs with pass-catchers during team drills.
Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse: The Younger brother of Obi, Melifonwu came in at No. 57 overall on my top 100 draft board as he continues to rise due to his freaky skills. At 6-3 and 215 pounds, he has the size and speed to match up with different types of receivers and shut them down. His draft tag is full of helium.
Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee: Despite being a three-year starter, Palmer never reached 500 yards receiving in a season for the Volunteers, but the inconsistent passing attack in Knoxville is the main culprit, not his talent. Watch Palmer versus Patrick Surtain to get a better idea of his vertical-tracking skills. Don’t be surprised if he is a “riser” now that he is free of the Tennessee offense.
2. Florida wide receiver (and Mobile native) Kadarius Toney enters the week as my highest-graded Senior Bowl prospect – does he leave the week with that distinction?
DeVonta Smith will be in Mobile, but won’t participate in any drills as he rehabs his thumb injury from the national championship game. Landon Dickerson is a no-doubt first-round talent, but the medicals make it a challenging projection. His tape and intangibles are so impressive that he might still go in the first round.
With those two Alabama prospects not participating, that makes Florida WR Kadarius Toney my highest-ranked Senior Bowl prospect entering the week.
Growing up in Eight Mile, which is about eight miles northwest of Mobile, Toney was a do-everything quarterback at Mattie T. Blount High School where he was responsible for 120 total touchdowns over his prep career. With the opportunity to play quarterback, Toney signed with the Gators out of high school and he spent his first three seasons in Gainesville as an athletic weapon without a true position. But he went from gadget player to productive receiver as a senior, posting 70 catches for 984 yards and 10 touchdowns.
A loose, elastic athlete, Toney routinely makes the first man miss with his special start-stop twitch, frustrating would-be tacklers and creating explosive plays. Though his 2020 film showed an improved route runner, he is still a work-in-progress with his steps and tempo. Toney has the quickness to run circles around defensive backs during Senior Bowl drills, but scouts will be focused on his route movements.
The other important element of Toney’s Senior Bowl week will be the interviews. He has a history of questionable off-field decisions, and some scouts have voiced concern that he is more passionate about rapping than football. Toney will have the opportunity to show teams the person and not just the player in Mobile.
Toney is currently ranked No. 25 overall on my top 100 draft board. Eight other Senior Bowl invites appeared in my top 50 rankings: Wake Forest DL Carlos Basham, North Carolina LB Chazz Surratt, Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama QB Mac Jones, Washington DT Levi Onwuzurike, Notre Dame OT Liam Eichenberg, Washington DB Elijah Molden and Alabama OG Deonte Brown.
1. Mac Jones, the stage is yours. Can the Alabama quarterback convince a team he is worthy of a first-round pick?
Most around the league see this as a four-quarterback draft: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence followed by BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance (the order of those three are different from team-to-team).
However, Jones made a strong argument over the last four months that he also belongs in that first-round tier of quarterback prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft. Can he do enough during the week of Senior Bowl practice to help his case?
What NFL teams like: Jones processes things quickly and keeps his eyes where they need to be. He has terrific pocket presence/tempo and trusts his feet to work around the noise. Despite the wide-open targets in that offense, Jones wasn’t shy about threading the needle when needed, putting the ball in a specific spot. His reads, decision-making and character don’t receive enough praise.
What NFL teams don’t like: Jones has very average physical traits. He is a functional athlete, but doesn’t have the mobility to easily evade the rush and create with his legs. Though his arm is good enough to make all the throws in the playbook, he doesn’t have an elite arm to drive the ball, especially when his base mechanics aren’t on time.
Seeing Jones removed from the Alabama offense will be helpful for evaluators. The fact that an NFL prospect all-star game is a slight step down in talent compared to what he had in Tuscaloosa says a lot about that Crimson Tide offense. But it will give NFL teams a fresh perspective seeing him in a different setting with new teammates and pro coaching.
The Panthers, who will be evaluating their quarterback options this offseason, will coach Jones throughout the week and have a leg-up on the other 31 NFL teams when it comes to best understanding his football acumen, coachability and leadership skills. Scouting quarterbacks live is different than scouting quarterbacks on tape. And due to the pandemic, a lot of NFL evaluators didn’t have the chance to see Jones in person during the season. Carolina head coach Matt Rhule and his staff will have a clearer picture of Jones than any other organization.
The Senior Bowl is an eye-of-the-beholder audition for quarterbacks. Two years ago, it was a different Jones at quarterback who won over a franchise. Daniel Jones had a very mediocre week of practice, but Giants general manager Dave Gettleman was in “full bloom love” with Jones’ demeanor and the way he handled himself in Mobile.
Could an NFL team fall in love with Mac Jones like Gettleman fell for Daniel Jones? Time will tell.

Here is the story of my dynasty in NCAA 14 with Coach Beans.
Coach Beans is the most polarizing man in college football and arguably America. If you talk about the 25 time national championship winning coach to your average college football fan you will find someone who either loves or despises the man, often times the latter. Whether you love or hate the man, there is no denying he is the greatest coach to ever walk on this planet. Coach Beans has been named the head coach at 4 schools and he was able to turn each one into a national powerhouse. It did not matter what the circumstances were, or how bad the scandals became, Coach Beans always found a way to persevere and turn Saturdays into a moment of success. To truly appreciate the success Coach Beans has created you have to understand his story.
Coach Beans, formerly known as Rutherford Beans, started his career with humble beginnings. He was the head coach of a JV football team in the small town of Tecumseh, Michigan. After back to back years of going 5-4, he decided it was time to try and make it big. Beans was still going by his first name Rutherford when he applied for the head coaching position at Texas State University (TXST). There is no doubt that Rutherford was woefully unqualified for this position but he was hired nonetheless. The hire was extremely perplexing and there are still rumors to this day that both the Athletic Director and University President were blackmailed. Knowing what we know now about Beans, it is easy to believe they were in fact blackmailed.
A confusing situation was made worse when Rutherford decided to legally change his first name to Coach a day before the first game of the season. The TXST fanbase was already calling for Beans to be removed due to the underwhelming hire and bizarre antics, but then the season started. Winning cures all, and no one benefited from winning quite like Coach Beans. Beans was able to go 10-2 in their first season while also hauling in the best recruiting class in school history. The gem of the class was 4 star QB Tommy Alvarez. An intense recruiting battle was had between Texas State and Texas, but TXST prevailed. It was later revealed that Beans had performed cunnilingus on Tommy’s mother in a performance so exceptional she convinced her son to commit to TXST the next day. It would become apparent throughout Beans career that sex was a tool for achieving his goals and that Beans was a sexual deviant.
The next 3 years with Tommy Alvarez as the starting quarterback would led to greatest moments in TXST history. The Bobcats would go on to win 2 national championships and Tommy Alvarez would end up easily winning the Heisman their junior year. This level of success put Coach Beans on the map as the hottest candidate for struggling powerhouses looking to get the next big thing. Not everything was great for Coach Beans though, his wife Vanessa was struggling in her battle with cancer. A battle that could have been easily won if Beans didn’t demand his wife seek alternative medicine instead of the traditional western medicine that would have saved her life. As his wife succumbed to the illness, shortly after winning his second national championship, she gave Beans a few dying wishes. She requested that he go coach at their alma mater, Central Michigan University. A wish that Beans would fulfill that summer. Vanessa also wished her husband not take another lover for the rest of his life. A wish Beans would break the very night she passed.
Much like his time at Texas State, Beans was able to quickly turn Central Michigan into not only a MAC powerhouse, but a national one as well. Recruiting was his calling card and he was able to reel in multiple top 5 classes that would help Central Michigan win 3 national championships in 5 years. Success came to Beans but scandals were also following him as well. He had learned a thing or two from his close friend Lane Kiffin and it was often rumored that he was going out to Mt. Pleasant bars under the name Staunz Taylor. Staunz Taylor became notorious for getting far to intoxicated and trying to pick up college students. Staunz was eventually banned from a well known Mt. Pleasant club called The Wayside after he attempted to go into the girls only dance cages multiple times. 2 days after Staunz was banned from Wayside, “Coincidently”, Coach Beans declared they were leaving Central Michigan to go coach an hour down the road at Michigan State University.
Coach's time at Michigan State would take him from being a great coach to becoming a legend. He would go on to win 18 national championships at Michigan State. Recruiting became such a success that other coaches would often joke they would have to recruit whoever Beans didn’t want. The recruiting methods used were unique and odd. Beans would often go in the homes of recruits and take off his belt all the while asking recruits and their parents if they “want to know”. What there was to know is still debated, but everyone agrees it was a sexually charged question. This simple question was intriguing enough to get even the most highly touted recruits to commit on the spot, hoping to find out what there was to know. In his autobiography, “Football, Sins, and Beans”, he stated that only his Heisman winners would ever “know” and that once the knowledge was acquired they often times wished they never learned what they now knew.
As legendary as his time at MSU was, it ended in arguably the greatest scandal in sports history. Early in his career there were rumblings among the coaching community that certain teams thought they had beat Coach Beans only to find out that they lost, often in a blowout fashion. After an investigation that lasted over several decades, it was discovered that Beans was in possession of the greatest device ever created. Beans, with the help of the Catholic Church, was able to create the worlds first time machine. He used this time machine early in his career to replay games that ended in a loss, giving him a second chance to win. The amount of lives that were impacted from changing the results of games cannot be understated. How many coaches turn their career around by besting Beans? How many gamblers got cheated out of their winnings? Why didn’t he use the time machine to save his dying wife? So many questions that don’t even touch on the impact this discovery had on the scientific community.
The NCAA was put into quite the predicament. It would have been devastating for the game to lose the titan that Beans had become, but punishments needed to be had. It was decided that in order to punish Beans and the Catholic Church, Beans could only coach at Notre Dame after giving Notre Dame death penalty like sanctions. All players on scholarship were forced to transfer elsewhere and Notre Dame would have to build from the ground up. The sanctions were as follows: The time machine would be confiscated and destroyed. The first year only 10 scholarships were allowed for Indiana players with a consensus 2 stars or below. Year 2 would allow 10 more scholarships for Indiana players 3 stars or less, and 2 stars from Illinois and Michigan. Year 3 would allow 15 additional scholarships from any players from Indiana and 3 stars or less from Indiana and Michigan. Year 4 would allow 20 more scholarships from any players from those three states. Year 5 all sanctions would be lifted. This was heralded by many people as a just punishment and the thought of watching Beans get humbled for a few years was too much for people to pass on.
Beans would struggle mightily with the lack of talent on his roster. Beans is quoted as saying, “I’ve got a bunch of limp dicks on my team that don’t even know their ears from their ass”. It was very hard for the coach to transition from playing for championships to considering a win against Buffalo a monumental success. As always though, Beans adapted. He used his time at Notre Dame to become a priest, in what many consider purely a PR ploy. He used his status as a priest and forced his team into confessions every Monday morning. This allowed him to stay ahead of any potential scandals among his players, and he also used their sins as blackmail against them. Anybody who had dreams of transferring or speaking bad against Beans was met with threats that put them right back into place. The program was ran like a dictatorship and it did produce some favorable results. In year 4 Beans was able to reach double digit wins for the first time at Notre Dame. Year 5 would lead Beans back to the promise land but it ended in a devastating 4 OT loss to Navy. In year 6 Beans would finally hoist the National Championship trophy again. He would produce one more championship at ND and retire shortly after.
The Legend of Coach Beans is a tale that will be told for years to come. It’s hard to argue that Coach Beans is a good person, but it is impossible to argue that he is a bad coach. 25 National Championships. 4 Heisman winners. Hundreds of All Americans. Thousands of recruits molested and mislead. Thousands of women loved under the false name of Staunz Taylor. 1 dead wife that should still be alive. All these numbers add up to one simple truth. Coach Beans is the greatest coach of all time and truly a legend.
TLDR; Coach Beans scammed, cheated, blackmailed, and out coached his way to becoming a 25 time national championship legend.

NCAA Football Week 5 - MAC's Analysis, Predictions and Odds
2021 College Football National Championship Odds + Pick
Clemson +200 Alabama +400 Georgia +2000 LSU +10000 Notre Dame +4000 Florida +1200 Oklahoma +2800 Texas +4000 Auburn +6600 Texas A&M +5000 (MAC's Power Pick) Miami (FL) +8000 Oklahoma State +10000
MAC's NCAAF Red Alert Action - 10/03 - No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Spread: Alabama -17 Money Lines: Texas A&M +605 / Alabama -855 Total: 51.5
Texas A&M Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Ainias Smith 1 Rushing: Isaiah Spiller 117 Passing: Kellen Mond 189 Receiving: Caleb Chapman 40 Sacks: Micheal Clemons 1.5 Interceptions: Leon O'Neal Jr. 1
Alabama Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Najee Harris 3 Rushing Najee: Harris 98 Passing: Mac Jones 249 Receiving: Jaylen Waddle 134 Sacks: Labryan Ray 1.0 Interceptions: Thomas Fletcher 0
Quick Trends: Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Aggies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on grass. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Texas A&M busted up Vanderbilt 17-12 last weekend as quarterback Kellen Mond aired it out for the small 189 yards and got himself a touchdown. A&M running back Isaiah Spiller grabbed himself the small 117 rushing yards in the unwatchable low scoring game.
Alabama smacked up Missouri 28-19 Bama quarterback Mac Jones passed for 249 yards and put 2 in the end zone, while running back Najee Harris put in his 98 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week both teams meet up for a good ol boys SEC game in Tuscaloosa.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but on the flipside 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Alabama has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tide can go get it done but reports coming in from our affiliates are ambivalent to give all those points away on the road at best, our consensus is going with Texas A&M to cover the chalk mainly because of the edge at quarterback.
MAC's Game Prediction: Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27 Play: Texas A&M +17
10/03 - No. 18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA TV: ABC Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 Money Lines: Iowa State +210 / Oklahoma -260 Total: 62.5
Quick Trends: Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cyclones are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Sooners are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Sooners Team Leaders: Touchdowns Seth McGowan 2 Rushing Seth McGowan 134 Passing Spencer Rattler 677 Receiving Marvin Mims 111 Sacks DaShaun White 2.5 Interceptions Delarrin Turner-Yell 1
Cyclones Team Leaders: Touchdowns Breece Hall 4 Rushing Breece Hall 257 Passing Brock Purdy 356 Receiving Xavier Hutchinson 69 Sacks JaQuan Bailey 3.5 Interceptions Mike Rose 1
Oklahoma ran through Missouri State 48-0 in their opener, then hit a wall on Saturday with a depressing 38-35 loss against K-State as a insanely obnoxious 28-point favorite. Quarterback Spencer Rattler some how passed for 387 yards with four touchdowns even with 3 costly interceptions.
Iowa State laid down against Louisiana Lafayette in their opener, and bumbled a cover against a suspect TCU team, final 37-34 as 3.5-point road favorite they should have had no problem with a soft line like that. Quarterback Brock Purdy got off 211 yards 1 touchdown, running back Breece Hall got 154 yards and 38 attempts and 3 trips to the end zone.
The Sooners are paying the books at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall has Vegas building skyscrapers with bettors money, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, I mean these guys are a bunch of bums when it comes to getting the money. Now if you've been putting your action on Iowa State as a underdog you've made some cash, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss, I mean these guys are a golden egg if you play the line right.
MAC is setting the standard and putting the business on the table, sharps and early money aren't making a dent in the line because oddsmakers made a tight one this week. MAC's looking at Spencer Rattle as the x factor, if he steps up this could very well be a easy win + cover for the Sooners, Iowa State is getting the 7.5 and MAC smells something fishy about the hook, play the over set at 62.5 up from 61.5 and don't be scared to give the points because Rattler will look like a stud this week against a mediocre Cyclone D. watch "Brock Purdy Lips" gets manhandled by DaShaun White.
Iowa State Injury Report - T. Milton WR - Ques Sat - Milton was unavailable for the previous game due to a lower-body injury and it is unknown if he will line up versus Oklahoma on Saturday. R. Hudson OL - Ques Sat - Undisclosed T. Downing OL - Ques Sat - Downing missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday's contest against Oklahoma remains up in the air.
MAC's Game Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Iowa State 24 Play: Over 62.5 Play: Oklahoma -7.5
No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0)
Auburn made bacon out of the boys down in Kentucky 29-13 last weekend to cash in as a 6.5-point home favorite, big Bo Nix passed for 233 yards with 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and looking like a god damn stud averaging 6.8 rushing yards a game, MAC would let his daughter and mother date a guy like this, and they got wide receiver Seth Williams coming in catching six passes for 112 yards 2 TDs.
Georgia looked like decent, getting through Arkansas 37-10 last weekend was impressive but not really, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and surprisingly no picks. Georgia scored 22 third quarter points to take control after going into the half down 7-5, now that could be good football but MAC is saying fluke and calling shenanigan's.
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: ESPN Spread: Georgia -6.5 Money Lines: Auburn +200 / Georgia -250 Total: 45
Auburn Team Leaders - Touchdowns D.J. Williams 1 Rushing Bo Nix 34 Passing Bo Nix 233 Receiving Seth Williams 112 Sacks Daquan Newkirk 1.0 Interceptions Roger McCreary 1
Georgia Team Leaders - Touchdowns Zamir White 1 (MAC's #BumAlert Prospect) Rushing Zamir White 71 Passing Stetson Bennett 211 Receiving Kearis Jackson 62 Sacks Nolan Smith 1.5 Interceptions Richard Lecounte 2
Auburn gets the money early in the season and has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 October games, but be cautious because Bulldogs are money makers too, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tigers just can't get through Georgia and have sucked against the spread going 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Now MAC would normally stay away from a game like this but it's hard to bet against big Bo Nixon and that up tempo offense. Georgia -6.5 is a suckers bet, take those points and ride Bo's back like the rest of the Tigers!
MAC's Game Prediction: Georgia 17 Auburn 27 Play: Auburn +6.5 Play: Under 45.5 (Get That Hook)

I made this comment a little earlier on someone's post about how to play against stronger, faster, better, and smarter teams. This was my response, which kind of spun off into some tangents.
The reason for posting is that I am curious about yall's opinions on gamesmanship. Specifically, I would love to hear yall's opinions of my take on competitive football. Do not hesitate to voice opinions and disagreements - I love debating and discussing topics of my passions/ interests openly and constructively.
EDIT: There is a very big misunderstanding with this post. With the approach to the game, mentality, and behavior I discuss in this post, I am VERY STRICTLY referring to highly competitive levels of football. I am NOT referring to recreational Sunday leagues or teams, nor am I referring to "moderately" competitive levels of football like an "elite" men's league.
Again, I repeat - almost verbatim:

I am talking about HIGHLY COMPETITIVE football with this mentality. That is IT. I am not talking about Sunday League or a higher-level/"elite" men's league. These antics and behavior have absolutely no place in recreational, street football nor do they have a place in "moderate" competitive levels.

In essence, should you be a footballer that finds themself approaching the game in a similar fashion as to what I described, you should only act on this if:

1. Your job depends on it.
2. Your scholarship depends on it.
3. You are trying to be scouted -- which does not mean that those who are playing Sunday League trying to "get scouted" should use this. I am talking about those in high school under the USSDA program (or whatever they changed it to now) or are on club teams trying to play at the collegiate level.

Okay, edit over. Don' try this approach at your Sunday league. You will look like a complete jackass.

Grit: Typically, It Can't Be Taught

In a hypothetical scenario, you are given these choices:

1. Play a team with strong, technically sound, football smart primadonnas
2. Play a team with footballers that are not very strong, smart, or technically sound - BUT are absolute mother****ers; grunts that work harder than anyone on the pitch, running you into the ground, following you around the pitch, getting into your head and weakening your game, taking on dangerous, hard tackles, pick fights, talking **** in your ear all game. Just absolutely annoying, pest-like players that are filled with nothing but grit, determination, and a desire to win at any cost.

Who are you going to choose to play against? I, for one, would sure as hell pick team #1.
So my advice for your team is to be team #2. Be absolute mother****ers on the pitch and be completely relentless in everything that you do. Do not let them rest physically or mentally. Live in their mind the whole game; do not stop talking in their ears, go into every tackle the hardest you possibly can while keeping it CLEAN, and do not stop being a pest with your unrelenting physical efforts. This is a mindset that must be carried with you during all aspects of your game and preparations. This means the night before the game and when you wake up the next morning, you are fully determined to make the other team's game a living hell for 90 minutes. Accept that they may outclass you with their skill and game knowledge, but you will also REFUSE to accept that they will outwork you or be even remotely close to your determination for victory.

Gamesmanship: My Controversial Opinion and View of Gamesmanship in Competitive Sports

What is gamesmanship? Here is a definition I found online:

Gamesmanship is the use of dubious (although not technically illegal) methods to win or gain a serious advantage in a game or sport. It has been described as "Pushing the rules to the limit without getting caught, using whatever dubious methods possible to achieve the desired end". (Wikipedia)

I played competitive football for 12 years, which I ended after four years at the NCAA Division 1 college soccer level. I played center-half/defensive mid my entire career. Although I saw a decent amount of success in my career, which ranged from Division 1 All-Conference teams in the Southern Conference, to USSDA Defender of the Year Nominations, to US Training Center Invitations, and to captaining my USSDA U16 team to national playoffs, I was, and still am, slower than a tortoise bogged down by 100 lb. dumbbells. However, I was always very strong, physically built and big in size, and I knew how to use my body effectively. My technical ability heavily was influenced by my extremely slow pace, as I realized no matter how much I train dribbling to beat players and becoming technically sound with skill moves, my pace and slow acceleration would never allow me to be successful or effective with it. I realized I needed to keep my game to 3-4 touches max and gain pinpoint precision with passing. I figured the distance that I could not cover quickly with pace could be made up for by accurate "long" passes - which ultimately became a successful and incredibly important part of my game. I was a "connector" player for my team. In this regard, I tried to emulate Paul Scholes' deeply positioned, connecting play over long distances. I constantly searched for pockets of empty space, dropping back deep to connect with my center halves - sometimes dropping in as a third center halve to allow our pacier and offensively dangerous fullbacks to advance up the pitch and creating passing lanes from the pockets of space I left by dropping back. My college teammates would joke that they never saw me sprint ever in their 4 years of playing with me, to which they were probably not far off. I hardly ever needed to sprint or run to my maximum - yet very slow - speed. Defensively, and mostly due to my slow pace, I was forced to become very football smart. I was not able to make errors in positioning or allow myself to be on the wrong side of an attacke the ball because if this happened I was exposed and could not use agility to compensate for my errors. Therefore, I did not typically have to sprint or reach my maximum speed of 4 mph.; instead, I would read the game by following the movement of players in their relation to the ball. I would watch body language and eyes as opponents were on the ball. I would occupy spaces that I thought would block so many options that the point of attack would have to constantly just be switched until they became impatient or frustrated and forced something. With this comes leadership and constant communication with your team - you must look for opportunities to press, which are errors or when the opponent faces their back to your goal with the ball at their feet. Pounce on these opportunities and communicate with your team so loudly they can hear you from Old Trafford. Just this constant loud communication and constant, chaotic movement can cause a lot of mental pressure and added stress to your opponents game. Take advantage of this. I thought of my extensive game knowledge, but lack of pace like this:

They may be able to run past me, but they can't run through me if I am already there - nor could they even attempt to run with the ball if I get to the ball before they do.

Here is a good and quick example of football knowledge and how I used it to compensate for my lack of agility:

When a player had their back to me receiving the ball, I would grab one side of their body and faint to that same direction so that the opponent could see me visibly for a split second. If I did this to your left side, which way are you going to turn? If you said left, I would probably assume you are into black magic of some sorts and knew I was baiting you into turning right. I legitimately can not think of a time this did not work. The player would turn in the opposite direction of my touch every time. This allowed me to defend smartly and effectively while also not being exposed by my lack of pace and agility.

However, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, from the age of 8 until 21, there was one part of my game that remained consistent the entire time; I never lost it. That was my unwavering and overwhelming desire to beat my opponent at any cost. I was rough, tough, and relentless. I used my natural aggression and tenacity in my favor, which left me uninjured throughout my entire career. This is because I was always told, as long as you go in harder than your opponent, you will not get injured - I took that and ran with it. I used the maximum amount of aggression and ferocity that I could without committing a foul or getting booked, which was not always successful (it is easy to get carried away). When I went in for a tackle, I was never trying to get just the ball; I made sure to get the ball and make contact with the player - every time. Roy Keane was always an inspiration to me in this regard, although I did try to keep a more level head than he was able to throughout his career. They would remember that aggression every tackle they went into against me for the rest of the game.
For all 12 of my competitive years in football, I only knew the other team as the enemy - It was us vs. them. It was war for 90 minutes, which meant no chatter during the game with the opponent, no friendly smiles to opponents or anyone associated with them, no half-assed tackles, no second that goes by not utilized to create an advantage over them. As a pundit for Sky Sports Football, Roy Keane put it best after watching Manchester United and Liverpool in the tunnel before the match. He was infuriated with the way the players behaved. He said:

I’m disgusted with players (scenes in the tunnel). You’re going to war, they’re hugging and kissing. Don’t even look at the opposition. You’re going into battle against them.The game hasn’t changed that much, the players have changed. You’re going to war against these players and they’re hugging each other. Chat to them after the game, or don’t even chat to them after the game.

This mentality perfectly demonstrates my perception of competition. This war meant no sympathy for myself and especially not for the opponent, no sportsmanship (OTHER THAN INJURY), and leaving no stone unturned. After battling for a corner, throw-in, or any 50/50 with me, they were going to feel like they had been handled by a bear. They will not breathe, rest, or ease their mind until I decide I need some short rest in my relentless pursuit for victory. To be completely frank, I legitimately did not see my opponents as people. They were simply just objects obstructing me from my team's destination. They were interfering with my team's ability to win, so I treated them as such. I would utilize every tool I had to find victory. This included "Pushing the rules to the limit without getting caught, using whatever dubious methods possible to achieve the desired end."

Examples: Mentality and Use Of Gamesmanship In Competitive Matches Throughout My Career

Before the Match

• No talking to opponents
• No laughing/ smiling with opponents
• If there ever is a scenario where they are in close quarters with you/your team (i.e., they walk past your team's bench or you meet in the tunnel before the game), there is no engaging in ANY conversation, banter, or unnecessary friendly gestures put forth by them.
  • See their eased, careless state-of-mind and self-inflicted exposure of their vulnerabilities through attempted cordial relations as weakness, as they are extending invitations for friendship, not for the impending war.
  • By attempting harmonious conversations, over-zealous kindness, or banter, they are mentally in one of two places:
    • Pre-match -- with a mentality of acceptance for their loss; they are ready to make friends instead of strive for victory.
    • Post-match -- with a mentality of easily achievable victory; they extend these friendship offerings as a means of sympathy for your "overwhelming loss" they are about to deliver to you.
  • Regardless, take both instances and use them as fuel. Punish those who surrender before and annihilate those who feel victory comes easy when playing against you.
• No watching/ looking at opponents during warmup
  • This displays concern for the other team and what they are doing. If you are fully prepared and are confident in what you are capable of/ where you are willing to go on that pitch, there should be no need to look at the other team.
• When shaking hands pre game:
  • Eye contact
  • Firm, solid handshake. Like a gentleman. Do not be a jabroni and fist bump. Be a man and shake their hand before they are put through hell for 90 minutes.
  • No words -- No "good luck" or anything like that. Why would you wish your opponent good luck? It baffles me.
  • Read body language, voice tone, eye contact, and handshake. I may sound ridiculous, but there is a ton of information subconsciously given up in these instances. Slumped shoulders? Shaky, quiet voice? Breaks eye contact with you? Grips your hand like a giant wet spaghetti noodle? WEAKNESS.
    • This means you go in even HARDER against these players. Regardless of whether they gave up pre-game or are cruising in post-game, show them what a real match feels like - especially if they are mentally and physically prepared for a proper battle during the game.

During the Match

• Do not leave your opponent alone. When marking an opponent in close contact - say, a corner, set piece, goal kick, etc. - it is not uncommon for players to place their hands on the back of their opponent. This in itself is not a foul. Here, lies another great moment for some methods of gamesmanship.
  • "Accidentally" step on his toes - continuously. When you and an opponent are standing, isolated far from the ball, step on his toes inconspicuously.
    • This will drive opponents up the wall, resulting in their frustration and lost of focus on the game.
    • Best case scenario: they get booked for retaliation of something the official never saw in the first place.
  • While your hand is on your opponent's back, pinch them repeatedly, hard.
    • It is incredibly unlikely that the official will ever notice this is occurring. The only thing they will see is the opponent retaliating and using unprovoked force on you, which may result in a booking or warning. Advantage you.
  • On a set piece, corner, goal kick, etc. where you know your opponent will be jumping, do one of two things:
    • Grab onto their shorts -- When they jump, their shorts will come down as they jump, which will result in retaliation of some sort and a shift of their focus from the game to you.
    • Step onto the back of their boot -- When they jump, their cleat will most likely be pulled off of their foot, which, again, will most likely result in retaliation.
• Constantly communicate with your team loud and vocally about your opponents
  • Talk about weaknesses of specific players on their team, but do not do so discreetly or quietly. In addition, do so about their team as a whole.
  • Communicate so that the benches, coaches and entire crowd can hear. This causes humiliation, insecurity, frustration, and an over-zealous attempt to prove this weakness or area of exploitation wrong. This will cause them to attempt things that are foolish and not in the best interest of their team's success - this in turns not only causes a specific player to become frustrated, it causes their entire team to become frustrated. Again, opponent's mentality and focus off the game.
• Whenever there is a foul committed by your team or the ball is out of bounds, immediately grab the ball and begin to walk away. You will be signaled and called by the official to give the ball back.
  • However, instead of giving the ball back directly to the player and enabling them to play quickly and keep their rhythm, you will toss them the ball by throwing it high up into the air.
    • This frustrates opponents immensely.
    • I have never been booked for this nor have I seen anyone ever get booked for this, all the more reason it causes frustration for the opponent. Opponent's mentality and focus away from game and towards official and your antics.
  • Not only does this affect the opponent, it also allows your team to catch their breath, recover to their positions, and not be caught out by a quick set piece or throw-in.

Post-Match

• Be a gentleman.
• Be gracious in defeat and in victory.
• Shake hands.
• ***one caveat\***
  • If the other team repeatedly and unapologetically demonstrated disrespectful behavio gloat in victory/ refuse to be gentlemen in defeat, you do not owe them anything.
  • Respect is earned, not given.
  • Do not show respect to those who do not respect you.

My Advice for You

Be a warrior - do not focus on anything else. You want to win more than they do. You want it more than them. You are going to go to places physically and mentally that they are unwilling to go to. You are not going to stop until you win. Utilize these examples I provided and exploit the weak mentalities of the other team. None of these examples require skill or technical ability, so there is no reason they can not be implemented into your game to give you an advantage. Having said that, gamesmanship within itself is not alone. It is very affective, but victory still requires grit, determination, and a relentless engine deep within you that will not stop until the final whistle blows; until you drop to the floor because you gave every last bit of yourself to the battle; until you are victorious. Take some time to research and watch videos of significantly weaker teams/ opponents taking on some of the greats and coming out victorious. Take Celtic vs. Barcelona for example. Celtic was clearly outclassed, but they used their unrelenting will to win and defeated Barcelona, which seems impossible when looking at the statistics of that game. But, at the end of the day, stats do not matter. Celtic managed the game better than Barcelona and was victorious. Also, do not ever forget of the classic English Premier League meme "But could you do it on a cold, rainy night at Stoke?" This classic meme in regards to the harshness of Stoke City's home turf conditions due to weather and their gritty playing style is a perfect example of how a lesser skilled team can still pose tremendous complications to any team in the world. There are genuinely people who believe that Lionel Messi - arguably the greatest footballer to ever live - would struggle on a cold, rainy night at Stoke. Which, obviously, has nothing to do with his technical skill or ability. It has to do with playing conditions and opponent play style. Would Messi's intricate and beautiful do well against a gritty, nasty, ugly and tough, work-horse team like Stoke City? Or would he crumble under the circumstances. Last but not least, never forget that Leicester City FC won the 2015/16 English Premier League trophy after being given 5,000-1 odds, that Riyad Mahrez went from playing for Le Havre in France's Ligue 2 in 2013 to winning a Premier League title, becoming the first African to earn the PFA Player of the year, and being named to the PFA Team of the Year all in 2015/16 - and eventually became Africa's most expensive footballer in 2017/18 with a £60m transfer fee to Manchester City and win two Premier League titles in 2017/18 and 2019/19. LEAST WE NOT FORGET the wiry, hard-working, pest of a player who is so affective in his unconventionally aggressive and direct style of play, Jamie Vardy - who won the golden boot in the 2019/20 season, 4 years after many thought he had peaked in his career. How incredibly wrong were they? Jamie Vardy not only continued to greatness while remaining at Leicester City, he also became the oldest player ever in the Premier League to earn the Golden Boot Award. The list of these instances goes on, and on, and on. Anything is possible.
Listen, do not give one ounce of thought to how much "better, stronger, faster, or smarter" the opponent is. Sure, those things could be true. However, even if they are - it does not matter. Why does it not matter?

Because you want to win more than them and are going to do anything in your power to do so.

God, I could run through a brick wall right now.

Ethics of Gamesmanship

Some people find gamesmanship to be unethical or not in proper "sportsmanship," which I respond: They do not win very often. Sportsmanship should only be demonstrated in two instances:

1. When injury occurs
2. When the final whistle blows

Aside from these instances, there should not be any form of sportsmanship displayed. Why should there not be any sportsmanship displayed, you ask? Because while you are demonstrating friendly nature and great sportsmanship, the man who does not care about any of this is pushing the rules of the game to the limits, taking advantage of your kindness and lifting the trophy at the end of the season - but hey, at least you were nice! Those that look down upon gamesmanship lose more than they win. In all walks of life, victory is a result of one team, group, or individual doing something their opponent was unwilling to do OR it is the result of that team going to a place that their opponent was not willing to go. Those that refuse gamesmanship as a part of their game will miss out on a tool to be used in efforts to win games - games can not always be won with talent alone. Those that refuse gamesmanship because of its "unethical" and dubious nature will simply be taken advantage of and lose to those who decide to utilize its power in a competitive setting. True champions accept that there is life on the pitch and life off the pitch - your best friend on the other team is not your best friend during a match, but they are as soon as the whistle blows. A good example of this is the rivalry that existed between Roy Keane and Patrick Vieira. These are two legends of the game that understood the principle of competitiveness and the difference between life and football - both of which saw incredible success due to their unrelenting attitudes, grit, and use of gamesmanship. And, like true gentleman, they are able to sit back and separate the game from every day life; displaying an understanding of war, defeating the enemy through any way possible, and as a result, being victorious.

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The term "generational" prospect has been used so frequently these days that it's started to lose some meaning. To help, we've been talking about the idea of a bridge term. "Presidential." The goal should be to describe a player who transcends his draft class, but doesn't quite rise up to "generational" status. In an ideal world, a generational prospect should come along every 20 years or so. And in an ideal world, a presidential prospect should come around roughly every 4 years or so (hence the terminology.)
That term hasn't been too popular and the picks aren't always either -- but that's sort of the point of reddit in a way. We're not here to read content and sit on our hands; we're here to engage and debate. So herein, let's ask ourselves: which prospects were generational? Presidential? Which prospects from 2020 may rise up to the same? With those questions in mind, let's talk a look back at different positions and make some determinations. And remember: we are exclusively debating their perceived NFL Draft stock AT THE TIME (not in hindsight). It's not an easy exercise to do, so take my personal judgments with a grain of salt and feel free to campaign for your own!

classifying OFFENSIVE TACKLES (1997-2019)

Gauging and comparing offensive tackles is going to be one of the most difficult exercises of all our positions. For one, we don't have a lot of statistics to cite as evidence and fall back on. Moreover, offensive tackles are always valuable, and always in demand. The best tackle in a class is usually going to be a very good prospect. In fact, the average draft position for the top tackle in a class has been 6.2 over our sample size, and never lower than 20th overall. So for a tackle to reach "presidential" status, they're going to have to leap over a high bar.
1997: Orlando Pace (#1 pick), Walter Jones (#6), Chris Naeole (#10)
We've always been starting with 1998 and we should stick with that in order to maintain continuity and the integrity of our exercise here. However, I just couldn't ignore the (dancing) elephant in the room. Orlando Pace -- arguably the best offensive lineman prospect we'll name -- went just one season before our cut-off. Given that, I feel compelled to include him and show just what a generational prospect looks like. Pace started as a true freshman, and didn't allow a single sack in his final two years at school. As a result, he won the Lombardi Award (awarded to the best player in college, regardless of position). Twice. In fact, he's the only player in college football HISTORY to win the Lombardi twice. He even finished 4th in the Heisman Trophy voting -- as a freakin' offensive lineman! Given all that success, Sports Illustrated named him to the All-Century team of the best college football players ever. It's not an exaggeration to say that Orlando Pace -- whose physical gifts matched the accolades -- was the best offensive linemen prospect of all-time and arguably the best of any non-QB.
Interesting sidenote here. Then-Jets coach Bill Parcells had the # 1 pick, but traded down to # 6, and then traded down again for more picks. Usually that's the right move, but he may have regretted it here. #1 pick Orlando Pace went on to anchor the Rams for over a decade. # 6 pick Walter Jones did the same for the Seahawks. The man Parcells landed on -- LB James Farrior -- was a two-time Pro Bowler, but nothing on the level of these Hall of Famers.
1998: Tra Thomas (#11), Mo Collins (#23), Victor Riley (#27)
William "Tra" Thomas is pissed that we broke our rules and started in 1997, because he doesn't look nearly as impressive now. Thomas was a very good prospect, but nothing that transcended the expected top tackle in the way that Pace did.
1999: John Tait (#14), Matt Stinchcomb (#18), L.J. Shelton (#21)
John Tait and Matt Stinchcomb were good, dependable prospects, but again nothing to get hung up on. However, I did want to mention # 27 pick Aaron Gibson, because he does illustrate another challenge of this exercise. Gibson was a MASSIVE human being (6'7" 385) who projected as an ideal road-grading right tackle. However, right tackles are traditionally not valued as highly as left tackles. The distinction between the two has been reduced over time, but it's more apparent in this era. Your left tackle was expected to be an agile pass blocker, while your right tackle was expected to be a big-ass run blocker. Because we're lumping all tackles together, right tackles are going to feel neglected and overlooked. However, I just don't think there's quite enough of a difference to merit separate entries/tags.
2000: Chris Samuels (#3), Stockar McDougle (#20), Chris McIntosh (#22)
Back to our left tackles, and a classic one in Alabama's Chris Samuels. If you wanted a pass blocker at the position, you found one here. According to charting at the time, Samuels started 42 straight games without giving up a sack. Can we give him presidential status for that? Maybe, maybe not. But here's another feather in his cap. The Skins traded two first-round picks -- # 12 and # 24 -- to move up to draft him. To me, that illustrates his elite stock at the time and tips the needle to our presidential tag.
2001: Leonard Davis (#2), Kenyatta Walker (#14), Jeff Backus (#18)
Most websites list Texas' massive (6'6" 355) lineman Leonard Davis as a "guard." And if that's the case, he could move over to the guard list and campaign for presidential status based on his being the # 2 pick. However, I am old enough to dispute that. Davis ended up playing guard in the NFL, but he played left tackle in college and was drafted with that plan in mind. As a tackle, he would be a very good prospect but not quite elite.
2002: Mike Williams (#4), Bryant McKinnie (#7), Levi Jones (#10)
Here's where it may get tricky for us. Texas' latest giant Mike Williams had great size and athleticism, and could make an argument for presidential status. However, I'm almost more intrigued by Bryant McKinnie instead. McKinnie was a VERY famous college player -- known as "Mount" McKinnie. For most of his career at Miami (Fla.), he earned comparisons to superstars like Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace. Like Pace, he didn't allow any sacks as a junior or senior, and like Pace, he even generated Heisman votes (finishing 8th.) I'd be inclined to grant McKinnie presidential status, but can we do that when he was only the second tackle in his class and "only" the 7th overall pick? I'm torn. And my general rule of thumb in this exercise has been: when in doubt, stay conservative and avoid awarding status.
2003: Jordan Gross (#8), George Foster (#20), Kwame Harris (#26)
To me, Jordan Gross is the type of player you can usually expect to find at the top of the class. That is: a very good prospect, but nothing that we'd dwell on here. Sidenote: George Foster is the first person on our board that I didn't remember at all. So congrats (?) to him.
2004: Robert Gallery (#2), Shawn Andrews (#16), Vernon Carey (#19)
Meanwhile, I can't forget Robert Gallery, and the Oakland Raiders fans probably can't either. There was a TON of hype about Gallery coming out of Iowa. He was tall, agile, and had great technique. Sports Illustrated's Peter King wrote a glowing article about him in Sports Illustrated calling him the best linemen in years. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said he was a better prospect than Tony Boselli (whom he also coached as an assistant.) In hindsight, we may be able to pinpoint Ferentz as the reason that Gallery disappointed -- in a different way. Throughout his time in Iowa, Ferentz has been among the best coaches in the NCAA at developing players. At the time, it felt like Gallery was a technical savant, but it could have just been a matter of the Ferentz Factory. However, we're judging prospects based on their perceived value not their actual value; by that metric, Gallery was a presidential prospect, even bordering on "generational."
2005: Jammal Brown (#13), Alex Barron (#19)
Both Jammal Brown and Alex Barron were toolsy prospects from big programs. In some ways, I'm surprised they didn't go higher. But when we're talking generational or presidential, they don't quite pass the test.
2006: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (#4), Winston Justice (#39)
UVA's D'Brickashaw Ferguson was a well-known name from the moment he went to school -- and not just because of the unusual name. His mirroring and agility felt top notch for the position. A four-year starter at left tackle, he transcends his draft class and earns a presidential status from me. The only real concern with Ferguson at the time was that he was relatively light (at around 300 pounds), but that was generally excused with the presumption he could gain more weight and strength as he aged.
2007: Joe Thomas (#3), Levi Brown (#5), Joe Staley (#28)
Conversely, Joe Thomas was nearly a finished product coming out of Wisconsin. Also a four-year starter, Thomas checked nearly every box you'd want. He had the height, the technique, the run blocking, the pass blocking, and "sneaky" athleticism (if you catch my drift) as a track and field standout. He also had a top football pedigree as a two-time All-American. I'm going to label him as presidential as a result. What may tilt Thomas over the edge there is that he had the type of high character, IQ, and blue-collar mentality that teams craved in the position.
2008: Jake Long (#1), Ryan Clady (#12), Chris Williams (#14), Branden Albert (#15)
If D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Joe Thomas can earn presidential status, then surely a tackle who went # 1 overall can be given the red carpet treatment and waltz right into our club too, right? Right...? Eh. There are no hard and fast rules here. Part of the exercise here is adding some context to the process. The 2008 NFL Draft class was deep with tackles (8 went in the first round alone) but lacked a signature QB, with Matt Ryan considered a "good but not great" prospect. In MOST years, a franchise QB would have gone ahead of Jake Long, who was known for being tough and reliable, but didn't wow you with elite physical traits. In fact, I would humbly speculate that Long would have probably gotten drafted after Joe Thomas if they were in the same class (Thomas was a little more fluid.) After some going back and forth, I'm going to reluctantly go with presidential. My thinking is that, while Jake Long didn't have incredible upside, he had a very high "floor" even by our standards. An experienced, two-time All-American with great functional strength, he could have excelled at RT if need be.
2009: Jason Smith (#2), Andre Smith (#6), Eugene Monroe (#8), Michael Oher (#23)
Jason Smith ended up vaulting to the head of the class based on athleticism and upside, but there were legitimate concerns about his ability to adjust to an NFL offense after a career at a (then) unconventional spread offense at Baylor. For the majority of the process, it was Alabama mauler Andre Smith who had been seen as the clear cream of the crop at the position. He may have generated presidential status here, but he bombed the pre-draft process about as badly as you can with poor testing and shaky attitude. The fact that he still went as high as # 6 shows how valued you was before that.
2010: Trent Williams (#4), Russell Okung (#6), Anthony Davis (#11)
As mentioned, we expect the top tackle in the class to be a very good prospect. Even with that high bar, I'd say Trent Williams and Russell Okung were better than the average bear as prospects. Both contributed and started as true freshman, and went on to great careers at their neighboring universities (Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, respectively.) Both also had the size and athletic traits to lock on the left side. I went back and forth on the designations for them. Should they be presidential? Near misses? If I had to pick one, which? Trent Williams went higher, but Okung had been ranked higher by most experts coming into the draft (and trust me, I just went back and google researched to be certain.) At the end of the day, if I have to debate this much, I'll fall back on my rule to be conservative and pass. If you want to include them both, it would be completely fair.
2011: Tyron Smith (#9), Nate Solder (#17), Anthony Castonzo (#22)
USC product Tyron Smith turned out to be an elite NFL tackle, but at the time of his draft he was seen as a little bit of an upside project. After all, he only spent 3 years on campus before bolting to the NFL, which is unusual for the position (wherein a lot of top tackles stay for 4/5 years.) Clearly, it turned out OK. He has been the best in a class that featured 9 offensive linemen in the first round alone.
2012: Matt Kalil (#4), Riley Reiff (#23)
Matt Kalil: very good prospect. Again, that's what you'd expect from the top tackle.
2013: Eric Fisher (#1), Luke Joeckel (#2), Lane Johnson (#4)
You wanna get nuts? Come on! Let's get nuts!. After debating it before, I'm going to pull the trigger and PASS on awarding a status to the # 1 overall pick at tackle. But before you get the pitchforks out, hear me out and consider the context. Back in 2013, Andy Reid came over to Kansas City, armed with a solid roster and the # 1 pick. However, the team needed a QB. Normally, a QB would be a slam dunk at # 1, but this happened to be a very bad class for quarterbacks (with Geno Smith's stock in a freefall.) The Chiefs decided to trade for veteran Alex Smith, and utilize the # 1 pick on a "best available" instead.
At the time, most expected that "best available" to be Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel. Joeckel had been hyped for several years, with scouts citing his picture-perfect pass blocking as the reason for his being the # 1 prospect in the class. However, he ended up getting clipped in an upset by Eric Fisher. In some way, Fisher was like the tackle version of Carson Wentz. Like Wentz, Fisher was a well-regarded small school prospect (from Central Michigan) who had a good shot to go in R1. And then, they absolutely nailed the pre-draft process and skyrocketed up the charts. The Chiefs decided to go with Fisher over Joeckel, and that turned out to be the right pick (at least, among the two.) However, if we're gauging the GENERAL consensus, I'd say Luke Joeckel was the perceived top prospect among them and more of a candidate for our "presidential" tag. However, his pre-draft process didn't go as well as Fisher, with some concerns about his functional strength and overall grittiness. That late backlash will prevent him from being presidential as well, although he's awfully close to qualifying regardless.
2014: Greg Robinson (#2), Jake Matthews (#6), Taylor Lewan (#11)
Once again, we see a tackle leapfrog over the presumptive # 1 tackle from Texas A&M (this time, a role played by Jake Matthews). However, I'd say Greg Robinson was more like Jason Smith a few years prior than the experienced Eric Fisher. Like Smith, Greg Robinson was a hugely talented but somewhat-raw prospect who carried some natural risk to his selection. It didn't work in either case.
2015: Ereck Flowers (#9), Andrus Peat (#13)
Ereck Flowers and Andrus Peat were bluechip high school recruits who managed to sustain enough momentum to go in R1. At the same time, they didn't overwhelm people as sure-things based on the college production.
2016: Ronnie Stanley (#6), Jack Conklin (#8), Laremy Tunsil (#13)
With all due respect to Ronnie Stanley and Jack Conklin (who have turned out quite well, thank you), Ole Miss' Laremy Tunsil was the most hyped tackle in this class for the majority of his college career. He probably matches D'Brickashaw Ferguson in terms of hype from day 1 to draft day... with one exception. That infamous gas mask video did injure his stock and cause him to stumble a few extra spots. We're weighing character into these valuations, so he won't be netting any status himself.
2017: Garett Bolles (#20), Ryan Ramczyk (#32), Cam Robinson (#34)
In contrast, 2017 was a weak year for offensive tackles. Alabama's Cam Robinson had the most momentum early on in his career, but scouts started some backlash against him based on some possible stiffness and caused him to slip to R2.
2018: Mike McGlinchey (#9), Kolton Miller (#15), Isaiah Wynn (#23)
Mike McGlinchey didn't receive the universal praise that his line-mate Quenton Nelson did. In fact, there may have been more nitpicking about McGlinchey than necessary. Tall-ass (6'8") tackles who have been good multi-year starters in college usually turn out well, be it McGlinchey or Taylor Lewan from a few year's prior.
2019: Jonah Williams (#11), Andre Dillard (#22), Tytus Howard (#23)
Similarly, long-time standout Jonah Williams earned some nitpicking prior to the draft, with many saying he may have to transition to guard. We're starting to hear that often with tackles that don't have great size (and especially when they're white, to be candid.) And to be fair, that idea has worked out quite well for some like Zack Martin and Brandon Scherff.
2020: ???
Georgia's Andrew Thomas may need a cooler name to generate D'Brickashaw-levels of buzz, but based on his stock so far, he's absolutely a threat to join our presidential club. He's physically talented and technically sound. For Thomas, the key may be the measurables, particularly in regards to his frame and wingspan. But if he checks that box with prototypical length as well, then it's hard to find much of a flaw in his game.
OVERALL RECAP
draft classes: 23 (one more than usual)
"generational" prospects: 1 (Orlando Pace)
In some ways, the offensive tackles may regret pushing to include 1997, because Orlando Pace set the bar so high for us that it felt hard to grant anyone else his company. If we had to include more, I would lean to Chris Samuels or Robert Gallery.
"presidential" prospects: 6 (Pace, Chris Samuels, Robert Gallery, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Joe Thomas, Jake Long)
According to our central conceit, we should have a presidential prospect roughly every 4.0 years. In this case, we're averaging every 3.8 years -- a near perfect match. That said, it does feel odd not to include Walter Jones, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Luke Joeckel, and a # 1 pick in Eric Fisher. Feel free to criticize those decisions and any other down below!

breakdown of other positions

QB, RB, WR, TE, OG, OC, K/P, DE, DT, LB, CB, DB

We continue with the divisional rundown of the 2020 NFL Draft with the intriguing AFC South. Catch up on the other installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series with the NFC South, AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is another installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:
5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position. 4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position. 3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production. 2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions. 1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had one of the best drafts in the league. They came in needing to re-tool the defense and added two of my top-15 players. In the second they took a high-upside playmaker, and capped their day-two haul with one of my favorite run-stuffers in the entire draft.
C.J. Henderson (4) has shutdown corner talent. He has the innate ability to cover people in man, showing good technique in press, off, trail, and motor. His coverage instincts and breaks on the ball are on par with Jeff Okudah. Henderson’s weakness defending the run is partially due to a lack of ideal strength. If the Jaguars play enough man coverage, it won’t be exposed much. Henderson’s blazing speed was on display on an unreal hustle play to force a touchback (gif below). He has very pretty feet. I’m not Rex Ryan, I swear.
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With the 20th-overall pick, the Jaguars selected one of my favorite players in the entire draft in LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson (5). Chaisson was the 9th-ranked player on my board and epitomizes the traits vs. performance misconception. In 2015 I endorsed Danielle Hunter as a big-time pass rusher despite tallying just 4.5 sacks at LSU. It’s coincidental that any critique of Chaisson begins with “lack of production.” On film, there are instances of being this-close due to technique deficiencies. He likely did not always great out amazingly with his position coach. But as far as evaluating translatable traits, and projecting him to the completely different NFL game, Chaisson is oozing with upside at just 20 years old.
Everyone agrees that Chaisson's physical traits are outstanding. He’s an exceptional athlete, somehow both smooth and twitchy with great balance. He’s a raw speed rusher who can bend, and has ideal ankle flexion for an edge player. Against older and more experienced tackles like Andrew Thomas and Alex Leatherwood, Chaisson didn’t always produce or perform well in an NCAA context. However, he had reps where he won and/or displayed ideal translatable traits in terms of pass-rushing technique, power, speed, handwork, and moves he can develop. My notes are overwhelmingly positive. He destroyed a guard on a stunt, stunted over two gaps to explode inside for a sack, showed big hits in space, beat Leatherwood twice off the ball, and showed power against the Oklahoma left tackle. I was right on Hunter. Chaisson has even more upside.
In the second round, the Jaguars selected one of the most enigmatic players in the draft in Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr (3). Shenault was flat-out dominant for the majority of his college career, standing out as the best player on the field in most games. His power is uncommon for a wide receiver. As a run-after-catch threat, he’s in the Cordarrelle Patterson mold. And while he’s undoubtedly a better natural receiver than Patterson, he’s still too raw to start at Z right away. His stop-start ability is terrific and he’s a threat to take it to the house on hitch routes. His coaching staff gave him a 4th-and-2 end-around.
As a vertical receiver, his film leaves a lot to be desired, with multiple bad offensive pass interference, lack of separation and ball tracking, and route-running issues. Simply put, he’s raw. There’s a lot of projection here, and if he puts it all together, he can be a star. His lack of timed speed (4.58 40) actually did show on tape. On the Cordarrelle Patterson-Anquan Boldin spectrum, I predict he’ll land closer to Boldin. The draft slot disparity between he and Henry Ruggs shows how much NFL teams value speed over college production. Perhaps they shouldn’t.
I wrote extensively about Davon Hamilton (4) here. He’ll develop into one of the best run-stuffers in the league and a top interior force. I also liked Ben Bartch (3) and even Josiah Scott (2) a bit, while the rest of the draft community thought the enormous Collin Johnson (2) was a steal. The Jaguars made 12 picks. If six of them are still on the roster in three years, this rookie class will spark a successful re-build.

Tennessee Titans

When the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota, the vast majority of people thought he'd become a franchise quarterback. I predicted he would max out as an Alex Smith-level player. The Mariota era is over in Tennessee, as Ryan Tannehill parlayed his late-season surge into a huge contract. The Titans came into this draft without any glaring holes. Their first two picks suggest they went with the best player available on their board.
Unfortunately, Isaiah Wilson (1) was nowhere near the best player on my board at No. 29. I had him ranked 67th-overall despite rumors he would be a first-round pick. Clearly something was off with the perception of Wilson, as the draft community was much lower on him than NFL teams. One reason for the disparity is how much the NFL values pure size in the trenches. At 6-6, 350, Wilson surely looks the part. I think NFL decision-makers still put a value on “first-guy-off-the-bus” type bodies, which Wilson definitely has.
The actual film shows arguably more pure strength than Mekhi Becton, but not nearly the same athleticism. He’s a raw right tackle who is good on double teams and shows awesome power when he gets his hands inside. The issue I can’t get over is his tendency to bend at the waist and miss initial hand placements. He wasn’t even in the top 100 players on PFF’s big board, which suggests he may not have graded out well. They’ll need to coach bad posture habits out of him and hope he keeps his weight in check.
I was also not a huge fan of Kristian Fulton (2). Fulton was productive in terms of pass break-ups and one of the top performers at DBU. But again, projecting to the NFL is not about college performance, it’s about translatable NFL traits. There’s a reason such a productive college player with ideal speed and measurables fell to 61. Fulton generally struggled to get his head around defending verticals along the boundary, showing a lack of ideal balance and some clumsiness. He made a couple of big plays against Virginia, but was “weirdly beat in the red zone.” I had Fulton ranked 48th overall, but if I could re-do my board after the draft, I’d put guys like Arnette and Robertson over him.
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While I didn’t have Darrynton Evans (3) in my top-100 due to positional value, I am always a fan of selecting running backs on day two. Evans’ speed (4.41), production, and ultimate draft slot all point to future fantasy success. If he can learn pass protection, he can replace Dion Lewis quite easily. His film against South Carolina wasn’t great, but that speed plays, and is a great complement to Derrick Henry.
Remember that last year’s first-rounder Jeffrey Simmons started his rookie year fresh off a serious injury. It is fair to expect him to grow as a player, perhaps developing into an All-Pro. It will be fascinating to see if Tannehill can repeat his 2019 magic. If he plays at a high level again, Tennessee has the offensive supporting cast to contend in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts came into the draft with needs at wide receiver and defensive back. After trading for DeForest Buckner, they didn't have a first-round pick. The biggest Colts storyline going into the draft was the possibility of selecting a quarterback early. They chose not to, and I agree with that decision.
Michael Pittman Jr. (3) seemingly has it all. He plays fast (4.52) with great size (6-4, 223) and excellent hands. He dominated certain games, including Utah, which featured multiple pros in their defensive backfield. In terms of physical traits, there is no question he has what it takes to be an outstanding pro. However, a deeper look into his film has me questioning his transition a little. He's not particularly strong for his size and doesn't possess great balance. His shoulder pads flop when he runs - it sounds odd but he plays a bit high. It's understandable for someone his size, but I have to be fair to my notes.
He blocked a punt and has a lot of "college" highlights, mossing poor 5-10 corners and blowing by 2-star recruits. When I went back for a second look I kind of loved his fluidity. He could be an outstanding pro or just-a-guy. The sweet spot for wideouts is typically the second round so I'll bet on him.
So where should an incredibly talented and productive Big Ten running back be selected in the NFL Draft? A few years ago Saquon Barkley parlayed an ideal frame, 4.4 speed, and tremendous statistical production into being selected second overall. Jonathan Taylor (3) was routinely thought of as a late-first to earl-second-round pick throughout the draft process, with a similar size/speed/production mix. The main on-paper differences were receiving production and fumbling. Are those differences worth such a disparity in draft stock? The point here is to pre-emptively defend my evaluation of Jonathan Taylor. He was an elite college back, but I do not believe he profiles as a special back in the NFL. His film is more solid than amazing.
Taylor's positives on film are obvious. He's smooth with home run speed and tremendous vision. He understands blocking schemes and is difficult to get down to the ground. However, his film, specifically against Illinois, is more solid than spectacular. I do not know if his not-going-down skills translate to the pro game where everyone is bigger, faster, and stronger. He gets knocked back and doesn't drive the pile way too much. Perhaps he's picking his spots, which leads to the first of the three frequent arguments against him - tread on tires (probably overrated), too many drops, and fumbling issues. Going to Indianapolis, he will have the best offensive line in football blocking for him and less pass-game responsibility. I do not expect him to be an All-Pro back, but I will likely target him early and often in fantasy leagues due to situation.
Julian Blackmon (3) has injury question marks but shows a spirited playstyle and tackling ability that translates. He has all the football traits, but deep speed is a question mark. His short-area burst is great, but he had a poor game against USC, displaying some bad angles. He should be a solid specials contributor and third safety at absolute worst.
I had Jacob Eason (2) ranked in the top-30 on my first big board. I liked his film a lot. Against Oregon, he looked like a first-round pick. The best trait Eason shows on film is his ability to make quick decisions. He loves slants, will get to his check-downs, and was good against pressure in the games I saw. Obviously he has the arm, but I noted his deep ball placement as "meh." Washington had arguably the best offensive line in the country, but Eason didn't have great weapons, as I noted multiple drops by receivers. Another underrated trait is his ball-handling, as his footwork on play-action shot plays was excellent. I would have picked Eason to be a good player if I did not read concerning insight into his character in Bob McGinn's Athletic article with quotes from scouts. That's why he fell so far. I'll give a good coaching staff a chance to develop him, but playing quarterback is so hard, you can't have question marks surrounding your intangibles for anyone to feel confident in your transition.
The Colts will take a stab at contending this year with Philip Rivers at quarterback, a great offensive line, and excellent coaching staff. They decided to build on a strength, adding Jonathan Taylor to an already talented running back room. Analytics folks may not love it, but the 49ers just had a successful year with a run-heavy attack. With how much nickel and dime teams play, it might be smart to zig when everyone else zags.

Houston Texans

The Texans essentially used their first-round pick on stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil, then extended him. One of the main reasons first-round picks are so valuable is because of how cheap rookie contracts are. So while Tunsil is clearly worth a first-round pick in a vacuum, it’s not as much of a no-brainer considering the difference in salaries. They came into the draft needing help on defense.
With the 40th overall pick they selected TCU defensive lineman Ross Blacklock (3), the 59th-ranked player on my board. While watching Blacklock’s film, I noted he would fit in best as a true nose tackle. He played his gap well, shooting out of his low four-point stance. He showed strength at the point of attack and made me think of him as a potential impact run-stuffer. Then I looked at his measurables. At just 290 pounds, Blacklock simply does not have the size to be a premier run-stuffer at the pro level. Blacklock showed a good rip move for a sack against Purdue but showed almost no juice as a pass rusher against Texas.
My Reverse Planet Theory states that the relative worst offensive linemen in college football play inside. There are only so many quality offensive linemen in the world, and in the NCAA most play tackle. When lovable penetrating defensive tackles transition to the NFL, they are now matched up against amazing interior talents and converted tackles. No other position has a jump up in competition like interior defensive linemen. Blacklock is a potential victim of the Reverse Planet Theory, but his understanding of leverage is what will make him a decent pro.
With their next pick, the Texans took Jonathan Greenard (1) of Florida. Greenard moves like he has cement in his cleats, and has substandard change of direction ability. He has some competitiveness and physicality, but not enough juice as a pass rusher to be a true edge dude. His production was nice at the college level, but I’m not even sure if his traits will allow him to be a rotational asset or special teams contributor. He wasn’t in my top 100.
Bill O’Brien received a lot of deserved hate after dealing away DeAndre Hopkins. Personal issues probably played a role, but there is no excuse for only receiving essentially a second-round pick and veteran running back for one of the best receivers in football. The next few drafts are vital for Houston, as they won’t have much cap space after inevitably extending Deshaun Watson.
Thanks for reading. Stay tuned for the NFC West and AFC West in the coming days.
AFC South Article with Gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-south/736898
NFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-south/736460
AFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-east/736202
NFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932

Can we have an honest conversation about the differences in the NFL overtime and the college overtime? (I know we can’t, but can we try?)
Both the college and the NFL overtime system are currently under fire for recent events. For the NFL, the Patriots again took an overtime kickoff and scored, there is a fan uprising over the “unfairness” of it. For the NCAA, the governing body says it’s open to changes to prevent games from going into multiple overtime games like LSU and Texas A&M’s 7 overtime contest in November. If any changes will be made to either system is yet to be determined. However, the debate rages with the fans.
For several years now, people have debated over which system is better and which system is more “fair” (however we measure that). As I’ve a fan of the college overtime system since the early 80s, I have followed some of these debates with interest, often amazed at the misinformation spread in these debates and accepted without pause. As I’ve collected a large share of college football overtime information including details of over 2,600 college football overtime games, I have more than average knowledge on the subject.
Among the things I want to address myths regarding the advantage the coin toss has in the college system. There are myths at both extremes, with people believing that there is no advantage in college (“because both teams get the ball”) and the widely held belief that the college system favors the coin toss winner by a much large margin than the pro game. The winning percentage of coin toss winners in college and pro is very similar (53.89% for in college FBS games and 54.58% for the new NFL system) but you constantly see people take a stand that one system is much fairer than the other. Of course, “fair” to some people means both teams having the ball, which is a valid point of view, but we’ll get into that later.
Given that there have only been 120 NFL games using the new system, which started in 2010 for the playoffs and 2012 in the regular season, it seemed pretty simple to gather the information I needed to assess how each system compares to the other. I used the game finder queries at pro-football-reference.com along with their play-by-play logs. Before I get into the results, I want to address a few common things I’ve seen people say which I feel stifle debate, rather than enhance it.
A lot of the debates I’ve followed discussion gets bogged down in people engaging in hyperbole, “facts” seemingly out of the blue, and pointless observations. Before I get down to the facts in this case, I want to give examples of some of those.
Pointless Observations
Every time a tie happens in the NFL, someone opines that the NFL needs to change to the college overtime system. This comment is pointless, as the NFL system is equally capable of breaking a tie as the college system is, it’s just that the NFL limits the length of the overtime and calls it a tie at that point. It seems unlikely that the NFL is going to want to have 7+ overtime games like has happened in college so it would have to put a cap on that system as well and you’d still have ties. I don’t see the NFL completely changing the system to end up with the same problem. I’m not saying that the NFL wouldn’t benefit from going to the college system, but just saying they should change without giving what the benefits or drawbacks are is a pointless statement.
Hyperbole
Every time a major NFL games has the coin toss winner score on the first drive you see comments that run along the line of “the game was decided by a coin toss”. What does that even mean? If the coin toss decided the game, why even play the overtime, just toss the coin. Given that the coin toss loser has won nearly half the games, it clearly doesn’t decide the game. When people who throw this comment out bother to explain what they mean, they either actually believe that the toss winners win most games, or they are upset that the kicking team never got the ball. The first school of thought is nonsense, while the second is a valid point of view worth discussion. When people use the generic “decided by a coin toss” line, you don’t know if they are using a throwaway line or have a point worth exploring.
Facts From Nowhere
The final thing I want to address is the practice that some people have of just quoting some “facts” without giving the source or the context of it. While there are many examples of this, I will focus on this gem from Ross Tucker which, at last check, got over 5,100 retweets and over 6,800 likes. The tweet was as follows:
“Overtime coin toss winner winning % NFL: 52.7% CFB: 54.9% Please RT for the sake of humanity.”
The first observation I will make is that he made no point at all, which might have bailed him out from blowing both “facts”. If his point was that the NFL coin toss is not way out of line, precise numbers aren’t necessary. If his point was college is more out of line than the NFL, than he got that wrong because that’s not really the case. However, let’s focus on where the numbers came from.
I didn’t have to research were he got the 54.9%. This came from a study done 12 years ago by Peter A. Rosen and Rick L. Wilson titled “An Analysis of the Defense First Strategy in College Football Overtime Games”. While the study was not 100% accurate (no study of this scope ever is), it did an excellent job of breaking things down. I have two issues in using this information without giving the source, one minor and one major. The minor one is that they were not tracking the “coin toss winner”, as stated, but the team who went second. Though the two numbers are similar, I prefer people to be accurate in their statements. The major problem I have is that the study is 12 years old, which is certainly information that would seem relevant if you’re giving a “fact”. It’s as if we are to believe these numbers are static and never change, and while the current percentage is similar these numbers fluctuate over time, as I will address.
Figuring out where the NFL number came from took a little more effort. Eventually, I figured it must have come from Mike Sando who gave this tweet after the Patriots/Chiefs games. He seems to have gotten it from somewhere, but I couldn’t determine where it came from.
He states the record of the coin toss winner is 56-50-7 since 2012. This does not match my research, and I’m confident that the mistake is not mine. First of all, Pro Football Reference, shows 118 overtime games since 2012, so unless they mistakenly put in 5 extra games, complete with play-by-plays for overtime, than 56-50-7 cannot be right. Calculating the game-by-game records, at no point in time was the record of the “coin toss winner” 56-50-7. I do see that after October 21, 2018, the record of teams receiving the overtime kickoff was 56-50-7, so it’s probably that the information is old and again not the “coin toss winner”. Not every “coin toss winner” has elected to receive as this research apparently assumes. In college, it’s a minor difference, but since selecting which goal to defend can be a strategic advantage, as I’ll get into later, it seems important to me to correctly label it. Since these numbers got repeated many, many times, that they accepted as absolute fact shows how getting the numbers right can move the debate along properly rather than stifling it.
Why You Should Not Trust The NFL Numbers
There have only been 120 NFL games using the newer overtime system. With that little data, the percentage can change quickly over just a few games. Over the last 40 games, the winning percentage of coin toss winners has range from as high as 57.74% to 53.24%. To show how unreliable small amounts of games can be, I will focus on another college study.
In 2013, Kevin Rudy did this analysis of college football overtime. While Rosen and Wilson focused on teams that played defense last in the first overtime period, Rudy calculated the winning percentage of teams that played defense last in the final overtime period. His study was from the start of the 2008 season until October of 2013, just over 5 years. Given that he just kind of decided to do this one day, the study had some data problems. He had 156 games in the study, 3 of which should not have been counted and he missed 31 others over that period. Still, it works as a random dataset of 156 games.
Among his determinations were that home teams won 56% of their overtime games and teams that played defense last won 61.5% of those games. These were mostly accurate for his dataset, but are actually quite a bit off the all-time numbers and even the period he studies.
The actual winning percentage of home teams over the period studied was 51.7%. The reason he missed so badly was that most of the games he missed, the visiting team won. All-time in FBS overtime games, the home team has won 52.4%. He wasn’t wrong in his dataset, but his dataset was so far off the norm that his conclusion was an erroneous one.
The actual winning percentage of the team playing defense last in the final overtime over that period was 63.59%, even higher than what he found. However, had he done his study over the 5 previous years, he would have come up with a winning percentage of 47.40%, a losing record. All-time, that percentage is 53.35%.
I often see quoted that the rate of teams winning the toss in college is 60%, and it’s usually because the numbers from this study has stuck in some people’s head. If he had come up with the actual percentage over the period, the number quoted would now even be higher, but if the study had been done of the 5 previous years, the narrative would have been the disadvantage of losing the toss.
Why are the percentages so different? Either the style of play changed drastically, or the dataset is too small to give an accurate picture. Plus, the NFL percentage is still changing at a regular rate ranging from a high of 57.74% over the last 40 games to a low of 53.24%. Over the last 7 games, it has risen a full percentage point. More than likely dataset is too small since we only have 120 NFL games to measure the new NFL system with.
Coin Toss Comparison
If you’ve bothered to read everything so far, you understand that there are a lot of ways to look at the college system. There are the ones mentioned and a few more besides so it would not be hard to come up with a number to fit a wide variety of narratives. Confusing things farther is the fact that one team gets to choose “defense, offense or end of field” in every single overtime period, not just the first one. So while games usually go with one team on offense first in the first period, than the other in the second and so on, it doesn’t always happen that way. Probably the only true comparison to the NFL would be to take the winning percentage of the teams that won the coin toss, so I’ll start there.
In the 120 games the NFL has played with their new overtime system (field goal on a first drive doesn’t end the game), 62 have been won by the team that won the toss, 51 by the team that loss the toss and 7 games ended in a tie. A 62-51-7 record computes to a winning percentage of 54.58% (if you count ties as half win/half loss). In the 746 overtime games involving FBS teams, the toss winner won 402 and the toss loser won 344. A 402-344 record computes to a winning percentage of 53.89%. If we wanted to do both since 2012, the year the NFL started the new system in the year the NFL started the new system in the regular season, the NFL would be 60-51-7 (53.81%) and FBS would be 135-124 (52.12%).
If we want to ignore the toss winner and choices and simply go by who received the overtime kickoff in the NFL and who played defense last in FBS college games (the most common choices), the percentages are slightly different. In the 120 NFL games, you’d get 61-52-7 (53.75%), in college you’d get 406-340 (54.42%), or 59-52-7 (52.97%) and 136-123 (52.51%) since 2012.
All-time (NFL New System):

League	Coin Toss	Common Choice
NFL	62-51-7 (54.58%)	61-52-7 (53.75%)
FBS	402-344 (53.89%)	406-340 (54.42%)

Since 2012:

League	Coin Toss	Common Choice
NFL	60-51-7 (53.81%)	59-52-7 (52.97%)
FBS	135-124 (52.12%)	136-123 (52.51%)

If nothing else, the numbers show that those claiming the team winning the coin toss in the college system wins far more then the NFL are way off base. The numbers don’t seem to show that either system offers a much higher advantage to coin toss winner. What we see is that there is an advantage to winning the coin toss, but not really a large one in both college and pro.
College Division Breakdown
Another interesting aspect of the college game is that the defense last strategy shows up to be a bigger advantage at the top level of the game than it is at other levels. While the team going second in the first overtime does win 54.42% of their games, in non-FBS college overtime games, the team going second wins 51.48% of their games (of the games I have).

Division	Def First First Per	Def First Last Per
FBS	54.42%	53.35
FCS	52.03%	53.38%
Division II	50.10%	56.21%
Division III	51.07%	52.40%
NAIA	58.10%	53.33%
All	52.36%	53.44%

It’s interesting that the higher quality teams seem to take advantage of playing defense first more than the lower quality of teams do. This could be an indication that if the NFL were to pick up the college system, the advantage might be higher for the coin toss winner than what we have in college. However, the NAIA numbers might contradict those numbers, although I do only have 210 NAIA overtime game results, so we probably need more data there.
The most interesting thing I found in this information is the division II numbers that have the defense first teams winning a higher percentage of games in multiple overtime games. The teams who played defense last in the first overtime, won over 60% of the games that ended in 2 periods. Of the 13 games that went 4 overtimes, 10 games were won by the team playing defense first.
Further College Breakdown
To get an idea of how the college overtime flows, I have some further breakdowns. Since the division stats very and the FBS level is closest to the NFL, I’ll just give games involving FBS teams.
Games: 746
Multiple Overtime Games: 252 (33.78% of the games)
Periods: 1148 (1.54 per game)
Drives: 2292 (3.07 per game)
Points scored by the offense on each drive:

Points	Drives	Pct
0	616	26.88%
3	539	23.52%
6	347	15.14%
7	720	31.41%
8	70	3.05%

Win/Loss Record By Periods Of The Team On Defense First:

Period	Wins	Losses	Pct
1	406	340	54.42%
2	118	134	46.83%
3	52	48	52.00%
4	14	14	50.00%
5	6	5	54.55%
6	4	2	66.67%
7	3	2	60.00%

Win/Loss Record Of The Team On Offense First, By Points Scored In First Period:

Points	Wins	Losses	Pct
7	242	97	71.39%
6	11	12	47.83%
3	77	134	36.49%
0	10	163	5.78%

The first thing that really stands out here is the winning percentage of the team that played defense first in the second overtime. I’ll let others speculate on why that might be. The other is the winning percentage of teams scoring 7 points when on offense first in the first overtime. Even though there seems to be a disadvantage to going on offense first, teams that score 7 still win almost 3/4ths of the games.
NFL Coin Toss Info
Of the 120 NFL overtime games using the new system, 62 were won by the team that won the toss, 51 by the team that loss the toss, 7 were ties. Calculating the ties as half wins/half losses, that comes to a 54.48% winning percentage. If we toss out the ties, the percentage becomes 54.86%. Clearly, the people that think there’s a huge advantage to winning the toss, aren’t looking at the data. I have a table of the NFL data, and meant to include it here, but Reddit space limits and formatting caused to many issues. If you want to see the data, you can go to my original blog post here.
NFL Drive Breakdown
The first thing I want to look at is the result of the first drive by both the team taking the kickoff. The following chart shows a breakdown of the result of the first drive of overtime and the record with each result. Also, I included just regular season results as well.

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	24	24-0-0	20.00%	TD	19	19-0-0	16.96%
FG	22	13-6-3	18.33%	FG	22	13-6-3	19.64%
Punt	49	18-28-3	40.83%	Punt	47	16-28-3	41.96%
Turnover	18	4-14-0	15.00%	Turnover	17	4-13-0	15.18%
4 Down Fail	3	0-3-0	2.50%	4 Down Fail	3	0-3-0	2.68%
Missed FG	4	2-1-1	3.33%	Missed FG	4	2-1-1	3.57%
Plays	889		7.41	Plays	839		7.49

Breakdown for the second drive of overtime:

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	9	9-0-0	9.38%	TD	9	9-0-0	9.68%
FG	34	30-1-3	35.42%	FG	33	19-1-3	35.48%
Punt	31	10-18-3	32.29%	Punt	29	10-16-3	31.18%
Turnover	6	1-5-0	6.25%	Turnover	6	1-5-0	6.45%
4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	9.38%	4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	9.68%
Missed FG	7	2-4-1	7.29%	Missed FG	7	2-4-1	7.53%
Plays	627		6.53	Plays	611		6.57

Breakdown of second drive after a field goal:

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	3	3-0-0	13.64%	TD	3	3-0-0	17.65%
FG	7	3-1-3	31.82%	FG	7	3-1-3	41.18%
Punt	0	0-0-0	0.00%	Punt	0	0-0-0	0.00%
Turnover	2	0-2-0	9.09%	Turnover	2	0-2-0	11.76%
4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	40.91%	4 Down Fail	9	0-9-0	52.94%
Missed FG	1	0-1-0	4.55%	Missed FG	1	0-1-0	5.88%
Plays	184		8.36	Plays	184		8.36

Breakdown of second drive after a turnover:

Overall	Times	Record	Pct	Reg Season	Times	Record	Pct
TD	3	3-0-0	0.00%	TD	3	3-0-0	17.65%
FG	9	9-0-0	50.00%	FG	8	8-0-0	47.06%
Punt	4	1-3-0	22.22%	Punt	4	1-3-0	23.53%
Turnover	0	0-0-0	0.00%	Turnover	0	0-0-0	0.00%
4 Down Fail	0	0-0-0	0.00%	4 Down Fail	0	0-0-0	0.00%
Missed FG	2	1-1-0	11.11%	Missed FG	2	1-1-0	11.76%
Plays	79		4.65	Plays	74		4.35

First, let’s focus on the obvious. Teams receiving the kickoff have scored on 20% of those drives, giving them immediate victory. On top of that, 18.33% have scored a field goal on the opening drive and ended up winning 65.91% of those. That means teams scoring on the first drive have won 83.70% of their games. Clearly, this is a big advantage. As such, you might wonder why teams receiving the kickoff win under 55% of their games. These numbers also show us some other things.
While people rightfully focus on the advantage of receiving the overtime kickoff, the advantages of being the kickoff team are never mentioned. The first thing to mention is the 18 times that the team receiving the kickoff has turned the ball over. When a team starts with the ball deep in their own end and turns the ball over, it almost always ends in a score, which would end the game in overtime. The average field position after the receiving team turns the ball over is the opponents’ 45 yard line. The average number of plays that occur before these turnovers is 3.44, with the turnover occurring in the first 3 plays 13 times.
Another advantage is the second team gets better field position. The average starting field position of the team receiving the kickoff is their own 23 yard line. The average starting field position of the kicking team after a stop or a field goal is their own 31. While 8 yards isn’t a huge advantage, it’s also noteworthy that the kicking team only needs a field goal to win, while the receiving team can’t end the game with a field goal.
The last advantage I’ll mention is that the team kicking off, if the stop their opponent from scoring a touchdown, knows what they need to do. They number of fourth down failures shows how often a team had gone for it on fourth down. They have done so because the receiving team has kicked a field goal and they know they need to score. If they aren’t in field goal range, they know they have to go for it.
While these advantages don’t outweigh the advantage of receiving the kickoff, they do counter them to the point where kicking off isn’t the huge disadvantage that some people think it is. In fact, there are likely times where the advantageous choice would be to choose which end zone to defend, rather than kicking the ball, usually in bad weather situations. If it is harder to move the ball on offense, it would be worth the risk of the other team scoring, for the likely better field position, particularly if it means kicking with or against the wind.
NFL Plays Vs FBS Plays
The NFL states that it wants to shorten games for player safety. If so, changing to the college system would apparently do that. The current system has overtimes lasting an average of 17.36 plays per overtime game. Interestingly, since the NFL shortened overtime games to 10 minutes or less, the number of plays actually increased to 17.55. In the last 43 games involving an FBS team, the plays per overtime game have averaged 13.42, 4 less than the NFL.
As such, the NFL could have fewer plays if they changed to the college system, though that clearly is not in the works. Among other things, I suspect that the run time for multiple overtime games in college run longer than NFL overtimes. Each overtime period has one timeout per team and in between period, the coin toss options have to be repeated, and the end of field usually changes, not to mention all the extra points. Since run time will affect television, the NFL probably wouldn’t choose that, though they would never state that is the reason.
The Kansas City Proposal
The most common criticism of the NFL overtime is that it’s possible for one team to never possess the ball. As such, the commonly suggested solution is that even if the first team scores a touchdown, give the second team a chance to match. This is a simple and seemingly fair solution, in fact, one that seemed good to me, until I saw these numbers. Unfortunately, though being “fair” in that it gives both teams the ball, it would might give the coin toss winner a bigger advantage, which is the stated reason that most of those people claim is the reason why they want change.
The advantages each team has in the current system are as follows:
Receiving team:
Can end the game with a touchdown without the other team possessing.
First crack at any score after both teams have possessed the ball.
If the other team turns the ball over, might get great field position.
Kicking team:
Gets better field position on average.
Could get great field position on turnover.
Selects end of field.
Knows what they need to score to continue game.
Need only field goal after a stop.
Take away the advantage of ending the game with a touchdown for the receiving team, you remove almost the only advantage the receiving team would get. The kicking team already, on average, starts with better field position, and has a change at great field position with a turnover, but would also have the advantage of knowing what they need to score on their drive. It’s this latter aspect that gives the defense last team an advantage in the college overtime. Given that you add to the advantage of kicking, you might never see a coach elect to receive an overtime kick again. Let’s try to see how much of an impact this would make.
If we assume the results we have so far reflect reality (a large assumption, but it’s all we got), under the current system, teams receiving the kickoff have gone 61-52-7 for a winning percentage of 53.75%. When failing to score a touchdown they have gone 37-52-7 for a winning percentage of 42.19%. It follows if the kicking team gets a possession if they allow a touchdown, the percentage would be between those two marks, the question being how many of those 24 games would the kicking team manage to win after allowing a touchdown. We know that teams trying to score on the first possession have scored touchdowns in 20% of their drives, which is a good place to start. Those teams also score a field goal on 18.33% of their drives, which indicates they were nearing the goal when they were stopped by a fourth down. It follows that if that a team would not kick a field goal if they needed a touchdown, nor would they punt, so that’s it’s going to be higher than that 20%. Teams responding to a field goal have 11 of the 22 times that it has happened. Likely the number of games that a team responding to a touchdown would win would be somewhere between 5 and 10.
So, taking 5 wins away from the 61-52-7 would result in a 56-57-7 record. Taking 10 away would result in a 51-62-7 record. Likely a worse case would give the kicking team a 45.42% winning percentage. Not far off the advantage the receiving team has now, and that’s worse case. And since the likely choice would be to kick, that means the receiving team would also get to choose the end to defense. This is probably not a bad option, considering it would give both teams a chance to have the ball, which is the most common complaint. It would not solve the “coin toss deciding the game” factor though in that it would still be an advantage to win the toss.
The most common other options people give for changing to the NFL system is to use the college system, or a derivative of it. I can only fall back on the data I’ve given for the college system and that it would give the NFL what it claims to want in fewer plays, though people asking for the starting position to be moved back would change that. There seems to be little change that the NFL would change to the college system for the reasons many others have given.
College Options
Currently, the NCAA is looking at a proposal that would change the overtime rules if a game goes into a 5th overtime. Instead of continuing as they had in the first 4 overtimes, the game would go into alternating 2 point conversions, ending when one team scores and the other doesn’t.
It seems likely to me that this is going to pass. Just over 1 in 100 overtime games get to the 5th overtime. This would happen very rarely and it would solve the stated problem for the NCAA. It’s a shame to see any change, but under the banner of “player safety”, this does make sense. The only question I have is would they count as separate overtime periods in the record book. It would be a shame to see the NCAA record 8 overtime game get dethroned by this change.
Another (fan) suggestion that would seem to curb the coin toss advantage is to eliminate all kicking from the overtime periods. Either you score a touchdown, or fail on fourth down. Either you make a 2 point conversion, or you fail in the attempt. Since both teams are doing their best to put the ball in the end zone, the advantage of choosing to kick or not is gone. This would cause it to lose some of its charm, though, in my opinion.
The last (fan) proposal I’ll mention is the one to have each team go for 2 every time they score a touchdown, not just past the 2nd overtime. What would limit the effectiveness of this is that it only would come into play when both teams scored a touchdown. This happens barely 30% of the time. Of the 1005 periods in which teams were not required to go for 2, only 305 of them had both teams scoring a touchdown. Of those 305, 47 were decided when one of the teams went for 2 and 30 were decided when one team made the extra point kick and the other missed it. So of the 305 games where it would have factored, 77 were already decided by current rules.
Of the 143 periods in which teams were required to go for 2, 43 had both teams scoring a touchdown. Of those 43 games, 19 were decided when one team made the 2 point conversion when the other failed, which is 44.19%. If we had a big enough sample, you’d figure that 50% of those games would likely be decided using this method, so I’ll assume that. On a side note, both the 5th and 6th periods have never had a winner decide by this method.
Okay, if you have 305 period where this would applied and assume that 50% were decide by a 2 point system, that means that 152.5 of those periods would have decided that game. Given that 77 were already decided, you’d have a net increase of 75.5 games that this method would decide, or 7.51% of the periods. It seems a rather small percentage of games would be affected by this rule change, though if a 7 overtime game is decided in the first, you could save 6 periods, so it’s difficult to determine how many periods would be saved. It seems a rather large change to make for such a small impact, but that’s my opinion.
Conclusion
Neither the NFL nor the NCAA seems likely to move toward the other’s overtime system, but both are looking at possible changes. Both the NFL and college give an advantage to the coin toss winner, but the winning percentage is less than 55% for both systems neither system seems to give a much larger advantage than the other (despite what is often said).
For the NFL, it seems to make sense to have both teams a chance to possess the ball, even if the first team scores a touchdown. A large number of fans seem to want it and though it flips the odds to favor the kicking team, it the coin toss advantage would likely stay the same. The obvious drawback to this is that the number of plays in the overtime would increase, which is opposite of the NFL’s stated goals.
For the NCAA, the more commonly discussed changes would likely not make much of an impact. The proposed rule change of doing a 2 point conversion shoot out after 4 overtime games would only effect about 1% of the total games. This would eliminate the 7 overtime marathons that occasionally come up, while having no change at all on most of the games.
I started this project in hopes that it would open up some discussion. I feel too often people have tried to stop any constructive conversation by claiming that one system is “more fair” than the other using incorrect coin toss statistics, or just general misunderstandings. I know it was a pointless effort, but it was fun doing it.
I'm curious what opinions people have on what either the NFL or the NCAA should do with overtime.